Biggest Questions for the Second Trimester

I’ve been thinking about the second block of races upcoming. It was an incredibly exciting open to the season and it’s got be thinking about what we might see…or not see…in the second trimester. So here are my 10 big questions during this holiday break

1) Can Johan-Olav Botn Keep Shooting Like This?
2) Can Maren Kirkeeide, or Anybody Else, Challenge Lou Jeanmonnot?
3) French Olympic Roster Competition
4) Can Italians Keep Shining Right Through the 2026 Olympics?
5) Norwegian Olympic Roster Competition
6) German Rebound In Store?
7) Who Can Prove Their Health?
8) Who Makes the Swedish Relay Teams?
9) Can the Polish Men Continue? Can the Polish Women Reach Their Potential?
10) What Happens in Nove Mesto?

1) Can Johan-Olav Botn Keep Shooting Like This?

Coming into this season the book on Johan Olav-Botn was pretty simple. He’s an amazing skier with inconsistent shooting limiting his ability to string together high level finishes. As a result he was prone to streaks of wins and podiums with dips in performance when the shooting went awry.

This season he’s upended the story as he has managed to not just a more consistent shooter, and not just a good shooter, but the best damn shooter on the World Cup. Going into the last race of the first trimester he had just three total misses in non-relay races. He ultimately had two that day to finish up the first eight races hitting 125/130 for a sterling 96.2%. That runs 1.53% ahead of Eric Perrot who has been the second best.

But this is nowhere close to his normal. The last three seasons Botn has run almost exclusively on the IBU Cup. In those three seasons he has hit 83.3% (22-23), 80.5% (23-24), and 86.8% (24-25). Over those three years he did improve his prone shooting by 10% from 78.3% to 88.6%. While there was definitely an improvement last season, nothing indicated he would shoot like this.

When you add to that his still excellent skiing, currently running 4.34% faster than median putting him 4th fastest on the World Cup, you get brilliant first trimester complete with three wins, five podiums, and eight for eight with top 5’s. It all adds up to a 113 point lead for Botn over Eric Perrot and 129 points over Tommaso Giacomel.

Can Johan-Olav Botn keep it up? History would suggest that he’ll have at least a little regression to his norm as the season goes on. But truthfully there is no way to know until it happens. However, we can take a look at the two men chasing him and how they are performing.

Eric Perrot:
– Skiing: 3.5% faster than median (10th)
– Hitting 94.6% overall with 95.4% prone and 93.9% standing (2nd)
– 1 win, 3 podiums, 8 top 10’s

Tommaso Giacomel:
– Skiing 3.72% faster than median (5th)
– Hitting 90% overall with 90.8% prone and 89.2% standing (8th)
– 2 wins, 3 podiums, 6 top 10’s

If we had known those two would be racing like that before the season we would absolutely have predicted that they would be in a runaway battle for the Overall Globe. As it turns out, at least thus far, Mr. Johan-Olav Botn has other plans. We’ll see how it all turns out but we’ll have a deeper dive into the Overall race next week!

2) Can Maren Kirkeeide, or Anybody Else, Challenge Lou Jeanmonnot?

On the women’s side there is also a dominant force who has taken hold of the yellow jersey, but with two major differences. First, nobody who follows biathlon even very casually is surprised to see Lou Jeanmonnot at the top of the charts. Secondly, while Johan-Olav Botn took hold of the yellow bib with a victory in the very first race of the season, it took Lou Jeanmonnot until the second to last race of the first trimester to slip it on. Now the question is, will anybody truly challenge Jeanmonnot the rest of the way or will the most consistent high level woman of the last three seasons finally take the last step from second to first at the end of the 2025-2026 season?

Lou Jeanmonnot is showing no signs of a deterioration of her performance. She is skiing -3.6% vs the median which is right about in line with where she has been the last two seasons. And she is at exactly 0% against the median top 10 putting her in great position for her skiing. She continues to be one of the best shooters in the women’s field hitting 90.8% this year as she looks to run her streak of 90%+ shooting to a sixth consecutive season.

The only “downside” to her performance is her shooting time of 31.1 seconds on average which ranks just 58th in the women’s World Cup field this season. We’ve seen some women, including Hanna Öberg most recently, take advantage of fast range and shooting times to get the upper hand on Jeanmonnot lately. Will it ultimately harm her chances at the Overall globe remains to be seen.

At this juncture the top challenge is the young Norwegian Maren Kirkeeide. Still just 22 years old, she’s one of the best young women we’ve seen since…well Lou Jeanmonnot. And in fact her performance looks a lot like Jeanmonnot. Kirkeeide is skiing -3.2% vs the median and +0.5% vs the median top 10 putting her just a touch back of Jeanmonnot. She’s also just a hair back of Jeanmonnot’s shooting hitting at just 90% vs. Lou’s 90.8%. But still she’s been able to accumulate a win and three podiums with just two finishes outside the top 10. This all puts her in second place 68 points back of Lou.

Following up behind Kirkeeide we have four relatively unlikely contenders with Dorothea Wierer sitting in 3rd in her last season, followed by Anna Magnusson and her glorious first trimester run, including two days in the yellow bib, Suvi Minkkinen, and Camille Bened. We’ll have a full post on this in the coming days but it at least based on historical success the women in positions 7-10 in the top 10 seem like more likely challengers than Wierer, Magnusson, Minkkinen, and Bened.

3) French Olympic Roster Competition

With three stops on the World Cup schedule completed the French Olympic roster has started to take shape. The federation gave us a small surprise by announcing the first nine members of the team as an early Christmas present on December 23rd. The announced names are listed below in order of current Overall ranking.

Women:
– Lou Jeanmonnot
– Camille Bened
– Justine Braisaz-Bouchet
– Oceane Michelon
– Julia Simon

Men:
– Eric Perrot
– Quentin Fillon Maillet
– Emilien Jacquelin
– Fabien Claude

Of these, if you had asked pretty much anybody before the season, the only real surprise would be Camille Bened. And not really that she would ultimately make the team, as she was excellent last season winning the IBU Cup Overall, but that she would have been so good so far this season that she would have already been locked into a spot so early on. It’s hard to argue with her results though. She was excellent in the Bessans selection races. In the eight non-relay races this season she has a first career podium, and five top 6 finishes. She currently sits 6th in the Overall standings. She’s done this with extraordinary shooting hitting 96.9% while skiing “only” 0.8% faster than median which ranks 38th in skiing so far this season.

These selections leave 1 spot up for grabs for the women and 2 for the men. Who is in the mix for these spots?

Women: (1 spot available):

• Jeanne Richard
  – Skiing -2.1% vs median
  – Hitting 84% with 94% prone and 74% standing (worth remembering that she hit 90.7% total last season)
  – Avg shoot time: 31 seconds
  – Best finish this season: 13th with three top 20’s
  – Participated in both relays. 0+2 in Oestersund and 4th best opening leg running 12 seconds back of Wierer and 1+4 in Hochfilzen with 13th best time for leg 2 running nearly 1 minute back of Anna Magnusson and 50 seconds back of Regina Ermits

• Paula Botet
  – Skiing -1.8% vs median (in 2 races)
  – Hitting 90% with 88.9% prone and 91.1% standing and on the IBU Cup
  – Avg shoot time: 29.7 seconds
  – Best finish this season: 32nd (only 2 races on World Cup)
  – Started the season on the IBU Cup with four wins, a 3rd and 8th.

• Gilonne Guigonnat
  – Skiing -1% vs median
  – Hitting 80% with even splits
  – Avg shoot time: 33 seconds
  – Best finish this season: 30th

• Voldiya Glamace Paulin
  – So far has only raced on the IBU Cup
  – Skiing -7.4% vs median
  – Hitting 85.8% while hitting 93.3% prone and 78.3% standing
  – Avg shoot time: 32.8 seconds
  – IBU Cup Finishes: 30, 15, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1

• Sophie Chauveau
  – So far has only raced on the IBU Cup
  – Skiing -8.1% vs median
  – Hitting 79.2% while hitting 86.7% prone and 71.7% standing
  – Avg shoot time: 35.3 seconds
  – IBU Cup Finishes: 8, 13, 11, 36, 15, 12, 1, 3

Just look at the level of those athletes. Let’s be honest you really can’t go wrong. With just one selection it wouldn’t surprise me to go with Botet for the risk/reward if you were to run her in the Sprint. But to be sure the top women who are already selected, if healthy, would be running the races.

Men (2 spots available):

• Oscar Lombardot
  – Skiing -1.9% vs median
  – Hitting 82.5% while hitting 87.5% prone and 77.5% standing
  – Avg shoot time: 29.1 seconds
  – Best finish this season: 13th
• Antonin Guigonnat
  – Only raced Oestersund. Back to IBU Cup after that
  – Skiing -1.6% vs median
  – Hitting 82% while hitting 88% prone and 76% standing
  – Avg shoot time: 29.3 seconds
  – Best finish this season: 29th
  – On the IBU Cup finishing: 14, 3, 1, 13, 11

• Emilien Claude
  – Raced three times on World Cup this season
  – Skiing +0.5% vs median
  – Hitting 88% with even prone/standing splits
  – Avg shoot time: 29.7 seconds
  – Best finish this season: 36th
  – On the IBU Cup finishing: 14, 3, 1, 13, 11
  – Continues to recover from offseason back surgery
• Valentin Lejeune
  – Started on IBU Cup. Raced 1 race in Annecy.
  – Skiing -1% vs median (in 1 race on World Cup) and -5.3% on IBU Cup
  – Hitting 91.1% while hitting 95.6% prone and 86.7% standing
  – Avg shoot time: 32.5 seconds
  – Best finish this season: 63rd
  – On the IBU Cup finishing: 9, 2, 2, 9, 2, 2
• Damien Levet
  – Has only raced on the IBU Cup this season
  – Skiing -3.7% vs median
  – Hitting 86.7% with even prone/standing splits
  – Avg shoot time: 31.3 seconds
  – On the IBU Cup finishing: 12, 15, 19, 4, 1, 3, 25, 34

With two slots to fill it seems like, right now at least, Oscar Lombardot as the upper hand on at least one of them. For the second spot it’s very much open and these next weeks of racing will be critical. Being another month recovered from his back surgery will Emilien Claude be looking healthier and grab the spot? Will veteran experience win out with Antonin Guigonnat? Or will Lejeune or Levet score a minor upset and grab a ticket to the Olympics?

After you get the roster selected then you get to who starts which races. That actually feels pretty easy to me. Only tough decision here I have is what to do with Bened. I lean towards starting her in the Individual as she has a podium in that race and her exceptional shooting gives her a far better than average chance to go 20/20. Otherwise I think you roll with your top 4 for both the men and the women. If you want to argue for Paula Botet in the Sprint I wouldn’t argue too hard in opposition though.

4) Can Italians Keep Shining Right Through the 2026 Olympics?

Obviously this is a HUGE season for the Italians They’ve been building towards this home Olympic games for ages. In fact for several seasons now one of their development rosters has been labeled the 2026 Team. It’s an opportunity for Dorothea Wierer, one of the absolute best in the history of the sport, to have one last race at the crowned jewel (Olympics) in front of home fans. It’s also an opportunity to showcase the here and now of Italian biathlon with Lisa Vittozzi and Tommaso Giacomel more than capable to secure Olympic medals.

So far in this 2025-2026 season the Italian team and fans have to be thrilled with the performance of their top athletes so far. Every week so far this season they’ve had an Italian win a race. I don’t think you could have drawn it up any better for them. It started with Dorothea Wierer winning the first race of the season and donning yellow for a race. In Hochfilzen Tommaso Giacomel won the Men’s Sprint while Lisa Vittozzi authored a particularly perfect Pursuit to take the victory. At le Grand Bornand Giacomel won the Mass Start while Wierer had podiums in the Sprint and Pursuit.

Behind those top three there have been a few encouraging signs as well. Rebecca Passler returned from last season and the start of this year on the IBU Cup and had the two best finishes of her career in Annecy finishing 11th in the Mass Start and 13th in the Pursuit. In her return to the World Cup she’s hitting 92.5%. Things have been a little less stellar on the men’s side as the 2nd spot continues to be held down by Lukas Hofer. I’m sure by this point the team hoped that Didier Bionaz or one of the other men would have wrestled that way. Hofer has just one top 20 while hitting 84.5% and running 2.1% faster than median. To be fair to Bionaz he did go to the IBU Cup and finished 2nd, 5th, and 4th. Maybe that’s all he needed!

On the relay front the women did finish 2nd in the Oestersund women’s relay. The Mixed Relay team of Tommaso Giacomel, Lukas Hofer, Dorothea Wierer, and Lisa Vittozzi also secured second in the Oestersund Mixed Relay as well.

At this point there is no objective reason to believe that this will suddenly fall apart. None of these athletes are doing anything that are outside of what we would expect from them. The only thing that could stop it is the pressure, both internal and external, that comes from hosting a major championships. We’ve seen it happen to Czechia and Swiss athletes recently hosting the Nove Mesto and Lenzerheide World Championships. At least Dorothea Wierer and Lisa Vittozzi have performed spectacularly in high leverage situations so at least for them I don’t see this happening.

Right now Italy has to be feeling like they have a good chance at medals with those three athletes with any of them capable of medaling in any event. The most exciting race of the Olympics, though, could be their Mixed Relay. That team could put a charge in the team and the venue by scoring a medal in the very first event. It could also serve to reduce any pressure from them with one medal already secured. And maybe, just maybe, the Italian women will be able to rise to the moment and try to chase down a bronze as well!

Simply as a fan of the sport I would love to see these Italian athletes perform at a medal winning level in Antholz. It would be a spectacular moment for the sport and I know it would be so fun for the Italian fans who have been waiting for this moment for years. And just one last thought, close your eyes and let yourself dream of what it might be like if Dorothea Wierer wins a medal in the Women’s Mass Start. It would be not only the last race of the Olympics but likely the last of her career. What a spectacular and beautiful way to go out!

5) Norwegian Olympic Roster Competition

The Norwegian Olympic teams face a tough decision for rounding out their 6 person rosters. On the men’s side that choice tragically got easier during the holiday break with the passing of Sivert Guttorm Bakken. He was racing at a level that made him a near lock for the Olympic roster. The 2026 Milan Cortina Olympics would have been the second of his career after he was was a member of the Beijing Games in a reserve capacity. This time around there was a chance he was going to get to start a race or two as well. It will be hard to see the Norwegian lineup in Antholz without thinking about him this February.

The team will still have to fill the spots for six men and six women. The Norwegians have an interesting conundrum this season. On the men’s side they continue to have an abundance of talent. Whoever the 7th and 8th men are for this roster likely could make the Olympic team for nearly every other nation. And then they have to select the four men to run each race and the relay!

On the women’s side it’s a more difficult choice. Maren Kirkeeide is racing at an all world level currently sitting 2nd in the Overall. Karoline Knotten an easy selection as well. But what about behind them? It’s difficult because there really haven’t been any standouts. So…let’s dive in!

On the men’s side I believe we have a few locks.
– Johan-Olav Botn: Couldn’t be more secure in his position
– Sturla Holm Laegreid: Reigning Overall champion, steady if unspectacular performances this year with all finishes between 4th and 12th. Currently 6th Overall.
– Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen: 1 win, 2 podiums, 6 top 10’s, anchored both relays this season that were both wins.

Near Lock:
– Johannes Dale-Skjevdal: Once again Dale-Skjevdal has had to battle back from adversity. It seems like every time he gets his momentum going he has a few rough weeks and then gets sent back to the IBU Cup. Most recently this occurred after he finished 3rd in the World Cup Overall in the 2023-2024 season. He followed that up with a tough start to the 24-25 season that saw him finish the year on the IBU Cup. To start the 25-26 season he didn’t do enough at the selection races in Geilo to qualify for the World Cup. At that point his season and selection to the Olympic roster looked to be in jeopardy. But like he has done so many times Dale-Skjevdal fought back. He secured three consecutive wins in Obertilliach to force his way back to the World Cup. Since returning he has four of five races with finishes in the Flower Ceremony including two podium finishes at le Grand Bornand. He’s up to 10th in the Overall (while still sitting 5th in the IBU Cup Overall) meaning that he is simultaneously the 3rd Norwegian on the IBU Cup and the 4th Norwegian on the World Cup. At this point it is hard to see him not being on the Olympic roster.

Battling for the Final 2 Spots:

• Martin Uldal
  – Currently 16th in the Overall
  – Skiing -3.36% vs median (13th)
  – Hitting 88.3% with 96.7% prone and 80% standing (22nd)
  – Had 2 podiums in Oestersund. 52nd in Hochfilzen Sprint before getting sick
  – Did not participate in any relays
• Isak Frey
  – Currently 22nd in the Overall
  – Skiing -0.73% vs median (39th)
  – Hitting 88.5% with 93.9% prone and 83.1% standing (19th)
  – Best finish this season is 10th. Just three top 20’s.
  – Participated in Oestersund relay victory and had excellent 2nd leg to open up a lead for the team.
• Endre Stroemsheim
  – Skiing -0.83% vs median (36th)
  – Hitting 80% with 84% prone and 76% standing (71st)
  – On the World Cup he finished 58th, 52nd, and 38th. He raced one time on the IBU Cup and finished 37th. It’s hard to count him out because of his past success. So far this season, though, it doesn’t seem to be there.
• Vebjoern Soerum
  – Has been suffering all season with a back injury he suffered in the preseason. It has been sapping the power from his legs. If fully healthy he could be one of the fastest men in the World Cup. Last season he was 12th fastest. But at this point it seems like his back just isn’t going to be good enough to get him there.
• Vetle Paulsen
  – Paulsen hit is stide in the final races of the IBU Cup 1st trimester finishing 4th, 2nd, and 7th to get to 3rd on the IBU Cup Overall
  – He’s been 11th fastest on the IBU Cup but not shooting great.
  – Not likely to be on the roster but worth mentioning.
• Kasper Kalkenberg
  – The wild card. He’s been on the IBU Cup this season and has four top 6 finishes. Unlikely to be on the Olympic roster but possible if they decide to have a young man on the roster as well as Isak Frey.

Again, the horribly sad passing of Sivert Bakken made the choice a little more simple. Looking at the above I think the federation will go with:
– Johan-Olav Botn
– Sturla Holm Laegreid
– Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen
– Johannes Dale-Skjevdal
– Martin Uldal
– Isak Frey

The women’s side is hard because outside of the top 2 nobody has really distinguished themselves. The top contenders to join Maren Kirkeeide and Karo Knotten and round out the Olympic Roster at this point appear to be:

• Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold
  – Coming off of last year’s trying season Ingrid Tandrevold has really never gotten things going.
  – Currently 35th in the Overall
  – Skiing -3.33% vs median (7th)
  – Hitting 81.1% overall with 88.9% prone and 73.3% standing
  – Best finish is 11th
  – Raced both relays. Had 3 penalty loops in the Oestersund relay to really put them out of the race. Was 0+3 in Hochfilzen relay and had 6th best leg time +19 back of Anna Magnusson and +11 back of Regina Ermits.
• Marthe Krakstad Johansen
  – Currently 26th in the Overall
  – Skiing -0.53% vs median (48th)
  – Hitting 90% overall with 92.3% prone and 87.7% stanidng
  – Best finish is 12th x2
  – Competed in Hochfilzen relay and was 0+2 with 6th best opening leg running +19.8 back of Ella Halvarsson and 4 sec back of Anna Weidel in 3rd.
• Marit Oeygard
  – The surprise of the group, the med student nearly stepped away from biathlon this summer before giving it one last go. She ultimately made the World Cup with two great races in Geilo. And she hasn’t given up her spot!
  – Currently 41st in the Overall
  – Skiing +1.89% vs median (78th)
  – Hitting 91.1% overall with 95.6% prone and 86.7% standing (7th)
• Aasne Skrede
  – The highly talented Aasne Skrede finally made her World Cup debut this season. It was actually delayed an extra week when, after being initially elevated for Hochrilzen she had to miss due to illness. She ultimately made her debut in Annecy and finished 35th and 48th. That was coming after a podium finish in Obertilliach.
  – In those 2 races in Annecy she was -0.64% vs median which ranks 46th
  – She hit 80% that weekend which is okay
• Frida Dokken
  – Frida Dokken started the IBU Cup season quite hot finishing 11th, 14th, and 2nd. She missed the next two weekends due to health
  – In those 2 races she was -6.01% vs median
  – Hitting 90% overall with 95% prone and 85% standing
• Siri Skar
  – 22 year old Siri Skar has been a nice little bright spot for young Norwegian women who really need it. She started off the season with three top 10’s in Obertilliach. Since then all of her finishes are between 14th and 28th which has been good enough to keep er at 8th in the IBU Cup Overall. That’s the top Norwegian woman on the lower circuit so far this season. She’s skiing decently well at -4.6% vs median on the IBU Cup which is 23rd best on that level and hitting 86.7%.
• Karoline Erdal
  – Thus far the 2025-2026 season has been solid if unspectacular for Erdal. She has raced all season on the IBU Cup and has been top 30 in ever race. But she also has just two top 10’s. This almost exemplifies the difficulty with the Norwegian Olympic selection. Decent racing, but nothing spectacular.
• Ragnhild Femsteinevik
  – Unfortunately Femsteinevik has not nearly enough to distinguish herself this season. She started the season on the World Cup in Oestersund and finished outside the points in all three races. She missed the second week of the season and started on the IBU Cup in Lenzerheide to close out the first trimester and finished 9th and 16th, certainly good races, and the best Norwegian in the Sprint but probably not enough. This season her skiing, which so often has allowed her to overcome her mid level shooing to regularly finish in the points, just hasn’t been there.

Looking at that I think the top four are pretty well set. After that I have to think that Marit Oeygard as the leg up as she’s been on the World Cup all season. Slot 6 is a total wild card. My prediction would be:
– Maren Kirkeeide
– Karoline Knotten
– Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold
– Marthe Krakstad Johansen
– Marit Oeygard
– I think it’s a tough call between Skrede and Dokken. I lean Dokken but it’s razor thin. In the one weekend they competed in together the skiing was basically even and Dokken is traditionally the better shooter. They both had a single IBU Cup podium. However, it was only one weekend and it was a massive career best ski performance for Dokken. It will be close!

6) German Rebound in Store?

The German 2025-2026 season hasn’t been terrible so far. However, coming off of a glorious 24-25 Overall title by Franziska Preuß, the rising Selina Grotian, Vanessa Voigt’s excellent first trimester along with solid seasons from Justus Strelow, Philipp Nawrath and signs of hope from Danilo Riethmüller, Simon Kaiser and other young men, it’s fair to say that hopes and expectations were higher than we have seen thus far.

Let’s get this out of the way first. Health, particularly things out of their control, has played a HUGE role. Franziska Preuß got COVID and Flu in Östersund to miss the Sprint/Pursuit that week and all of Hochfilzen. Selina Grotian similarly was very sick and missed Hochfilzen and Annecy. So the two biggest weapons on the women’s side basically missed or were compromised for the entire first semester. And to Preuß’ credit when she got back she did get a top 6 even clearly not at top form.

Overall though it’s just been sort of ho hum. Between both men and women the German team had a total of one podium. That went to Philipp Horn in the Hochfilzen Sprint before a 4th in the Pursuit. Justus Strelow came just about 50 meters short of a podium in the Mass Start at le Grand Bornand before the freight train of Vetle Christiansen tracked him down.

Let’s be clear, it hasn’t been a total so far. Yes the German federation aspires higher (as they should!) but there are some athletes out there having some great successes and some wonderful stories being written.

For example, Anna Weidel for one is having the best season of her career and it’s really going nearly unnoticed. At 29 years old it’s been a few years since she might have been considered an up and coming talent having won five medals at Youth and Junior Worlds between 2014 and 2017. In the years since becoming a senior level athlete she’s only spent two racing more 10 or mote times on the World Cup: 2020-2021 when she finished 70th Overall after racing 10 times and 2022-2023 when she finished 29th Overall racing 15 times.

As of right now Weidel is sitting at 17th in the Overall. She had to fight and claw her way on to the World Cup with good racing over the summer starting at the Blink festival, continuing most importantly at German Championships, and then winning the first race in Ruhpolding. Since then she has three top 10’s matching her entire career total prior to this season and five top 20’s which already matches the most she’s ever had in a season in her career. Her average finish is 26.8, a healthy career bets, buoyed by the best skiing in her career running -0.2% vs Median, the first time in her career being faster than median. That’s even with shooting 88.5%, which would be relatively low for her career.

To a lesser degree you have Vanessa Voigt who, after a career best start to last season, has been working to once again come back from health related issues, both physical and mental. She has three top 10’s this season which is on pace to match the nine she had in her career best-to-date season of 2023-2024 when she had nine. She is skiing 1.7% back from median which is relatively good for her and an average course time of 20.3 which is only a little back from her prior career best. And she’s still hitting 93.1%. Unfortunately she continues to be one of the slower shooters in biathlon which is something she really does work on, but sometimes it’s hard to “let go” of the shots once you’re standing there staring down the target.

So, can the German team rebound for a stronger second trimester? Undoubtably. Even if only because they should have a healthy Franziska Preuß and Selina Grotian back. Preuß should be able to return to competing for high finishes. Even in le Grand Bornand she was showing signs and she’s going to be able to rebuild her legs. Hopefully Grotian will be able to do the same.

The real question marks for the women will be if the group of Julia Tannheimer, Janina Hettich-Walz, and Vanessa Voigt can take another step forward. That remains a little less clear. Voigt and Weidel

Vanessa Voigt we discussed above. Janina Hettich-Walz, after racing exceptionally well over the summer hasn’t quite had the magic in her return from maternity leave. She’s actually skiing very well. Her average ski rank is 12, well above her career best of 20 as she runs 3.1% faster than median. That ranks 9th in skiing right now. So clearly not missing anything there. For Hettich-Walz she’s hitting only 82.7% which is the lowest of her senior level career. Her last two seasons before maternity leave she hit 86.3% and 87.8%. This season she is still hitting 94.5% prone so it’s the standing shooting at 70.9% that’s causing all the damage. She’s not far from being able to really put up some good results. Finally Julia Tannheimer is having a similar problem. She’s running 3.5% faster than median ranking 6th on the World Cup which is wild for a 20 year old. But she’s hitting only 73.6% with just 70.9% standing which is just nowhere near good enough to compete. She has hit as well as the mid 80’s in her career but most of her career she’s shot in the mid to low 70’s so this isn’t completely unexpected. However, the skiing is more than good enough to be able to compete.

On the men’s side Strelow, Horn, and Nawrath have been knocking on the door and hopefully they can knock it down. Strelow has to find a bit more power in those legs somehow some way. Maybe it’s not there but I know he’ll keep trying. Philipp Horn would benefit significantly from even a modest shooting improvement. He’s hitting 80.8% which is around his career average. The odd part is that it’s come with some of his best prone shooting ever at 84.6% but a significant decline in his standing shooting. If his standing shooting can return towards the mid 80’s, that plus his solid prone shooting and very good skiing will have him in the mix for podiums. Lastly, Nawrath, at 32 sort of is who he is. He’s skiing at his normal level and actually shooting quite well at 89.2%. If he can keep this up the results will be there.

The rest of the men are the real question. Can one or two of Riethmüller, Zobel, Kaiser, etc figure it out? Danilo Riethmueller is basically replicating his exact statistics from the last two seasons. Which is fine. He’s had multiple top 10’s each of the last two seasons. I think if asked truthfully most in the German federation would have liked to have seen a little improvement. He’s still running 2.4% faster than median and shooting around 80%. David Zobel started out the season on the IBU Cup with very good skiing and had a 3rd, 5th, and 8th there before moving up to the World Cup where he has had five finishes between 18th and 34th. Simon Kaiser has yet to score a top 20 this season. He’s skiing 1.9% faster than median but hitting only 76.4%.

Will the German team rebound in the second trimester? I think yes and primarily on the strength of the women’s team. Preuss and Grotian back, if healthy, will be excellent. Voigt and Hettich-Walz seem like they are primed to have some top results as the level is there. And if Tannheimer is able to improve the shooting into the 80’s she’s already one of the best skiers on the World Cup. At that point anything that Anna Weidel gives you is a bonus. For the men it is likely that Justus Strelow and Philipp Horn have a few more top 10’s than they did in the first trimester, again the level of performance would seem to indicate that. The rest of the team will have to pick it up though.

So will the team German team look better? I would bet on it.

7) Who Can Prove Their Health?

I’ll mercifully make this short. There have been a number of athletes that have continued to struggle with health in the first trimester. Time is getting short before the 2026 Olympic Games. Will they be able to prove their level before the Games or will it remain a question all the way up until the Opening Ceremonies? Just a few of these athletes

• Elvira Öberg – Sickness
• Selina Grotian – Illnesses causing her to miss most of the first trimester
• Niklas Hartweg – Multiple illnesses and missed most of the first trimester
• Anna Gandler – Multiple illnesses running back to last summer
• Yulia Dzhima – Hand injury and hasn’t raced yet this season
• Jakov Fak – Knee injury requiring meniscus surgery before Christmas
• Emilien Claude – Continues to recover from back surgery in September
• Linn Gestblom – Continues to nurse her shoulders
• Otto Invenius – returning from mononucleosis and only returned in Annecy-le Grand Bornand

8) Who Makes the Swedish Relay Teams?

The Swedish team has had a little bit of an up and down start. They have certainly had some high highs with Hanna Öberg winning the Sprint in Annecy-le Grand Bornand, Sebastian Samuelsson with multiple podiums, oh and Anna Magnusson having a career year and was wearing the yellow bib for a couple of races. Not a disappointment at all! On the other hand, Elvira Öberg has been pretty quiet, Martin Ponsiluoma hasn’t been phenomenal, Ella Halvarsson hasn’t (yet) taken the next step, Linn Gestblom has only raced two non-relay races. So it’s been an up and down run season so far for the Swedish blue and yellow.

But, what about the relays? Well the men have two third place finishes while the women have a 4th and a win. The question will come, for completely different reasons, how does Sweden array their relay squads as they prepare for the 2026 Olympics? The women have so many options for the positions. The men it’s a little more difficult to figure out.

For the women, they will be choosing from Hanna Öberg, Elvira Öberg, Anna Magnusson, Ella Halvarsson, Linn Gestblom, Sara Andersson, Anna-Karin Heijdenberg, and Johanna Skottheim. Right off the bat you can write in Hanna Öberg, Elvira Öberg, and Anna Magnusson. Don’t need to spend too much time on that but Anna Magnusson has been sensational four wins and five top 10’s already this season as she is shooting over 90% and skiing 14th best on the World Cup. Hanna Öberg looks as good this season as she has in a couple of years. Already with two top 5’s she matched last season’s output and nearly matched the 23-24 season. She’s on pace for six to seven which is close to what she did every year from 20-21 through 22-23. Meanwhile she is skiing 4% faster than median, her best ever in her career. And even while Elvira hasn’t had a terrific start, with her speed, she’ll be there. In the one relay she raced, she had just 1 extra round while they won the race.

So who joins them? Let’s take a quick look at the top candidates:

• Ella Halvarsson
  – Skiing -1.1% vs median
  – Hitting 89.2% with 93.8% prone and 84.6% standing
  – Avg shoot time: 26.6 seconds
  – Best finish this season: 7th with three top 10’s
  – Participated in both relays. 0+4 in Oestersund and 4th best leg 3 45 seconds back of Vittozzi and 0+2 in Hochfilzen and best opening leg by 10 seconds
• Linn Gestblom
  – Skiing -2.6% vs median
  – Shooting 80% with 100% prone and 60% standing
  – Avg shoot time: 27.3 seconds
  – Best finish this season 26th
  – Continues to nurse her shoulders and that is part of her sparse racing schedule so far this season
  – No relay participation this season
• Sara Andersson
  – Skiing -1.9% vs median
  – Shooting 72.9% with 82.9% prone and just 62.9% standing
  – Avg shoot time 30.4 seconds
  – Best finish this season 16th
  – No relay participation this season
• Anna-Karin Heijdenberg
  – Skiing -2.3% vs median
  – Shooting 70% with 66.7% prone and 73.3% standing on the World Cup. Hitting 84.4% on IBU Cup
  – Avg shoot time 27.8 seconds
  – Best finish this season 45th
  – On IBU Cup had two wins and four top 5s to start the season
• Johanna Skottheim
  – Skiing -1.0% vs median
  – Shooting 80% with 92% prone and 68% standing. Hitting 80% on IBU Cup
  – Avg shoot time 31.9 seconds
  – Best finish this season 39th
  – On IBU Cup had three top 5 finishes in four races
  – No relay participation this season

So who do they go with? History shows Ella Halvarsson is who they have the most faith in. She’s performed well in both. Linn Gestblom has an outside chance at running but she’s going to really have to show something in the second trimester to grab that spot. Same with Andersson, Heijdenberg, or Skottheim if she makes it back to the World Cup. Thisis a team that should absolutely be in the mix not only for medals in Antholz, but quite possibly racing for the gold medal.

What about the men? Again, three of the spots are locked. Sebastian Samuelsson is quietly having an excellent year. He hasn’t won (yet) but he has two podiums and four top fives is well on his way to one of his best seasons ever as he currently sits 4th in the Overall and has easily his best average race finish of his career at 6.3 compared to 10.8 in the 2021-2022 season. Martin Ponsiluoma is as fast as ever, currently the 3rd fastest man on the World Cup running 4.8% faster than median which is tied for the best of his career. His shooting is rebounding as well as he’s hitting 81.5% including a massive career best 89.2% prone. Jesper Nelin would be the third man just as he has been for the last several years. No outstanding races so far this season but he’s hitting 83.1%, the third best shooting of his career, and he is skiing 2.2% faster than median.

So who is the 4th man on the relay team? It probably comes down to Viktor Brant vs Malte Stefansson. Both have been on the relay one time so far this season and the team finished in 3rd both times. How do they compare?

• Viktor Brandt
  – Skiing 0.1% slower than median this season
  – Shooting 80% with 90% prone and 70% standing
  – Average Shoot Time 25.7 seconds
  – Best finish this season 15th
  – 3+6 in Oestersund as he had what should have been a disastrous relay and was +1:56 at the exchange and 1:19 off the podium.
• Malte Stefansson
  – Skiing 2.1% faster than median this season
  – Shooting 80% with 87.3% prone and 72.7% standing
  – Avg Shoot Time 26.5 seconds
  – Best finish this season 27th
  – 0+2 in Hochfilzen with the 11th best 2nd leg. He was +42 on Jacquelin and +25 on Nawrath who was 3rd best on the leg. Moved the team from 16th to 12th but lost a little bit of time on the podium.

Between those two I could go either way. The Swedish team has certainly had some success with Viktor Brandt. But really in the first two legs they are looking for the guy who will hurt them the least. Right now that has been Malte Stefansson. Wouldn’t say this is a “done deal” but Stefansson has the advantage at this point. And this is a team that can absolutely figure in the competition for Olympic medals!

9) Can the Polish Men Continue? Can the Polish Women Reach Their Potential?

There were several seasons there were the Polish federation felt completely lost. However, that has really turned around. Over the last 2-3 years the Polish women have started to have a resurgence. You’ve seen good racing from Johanna Jakiela and Anna Maka. Natalia Sidorowicz has been especially good the last two seasons including a top 30 Overall finish last season. And now, after a couple of seasons of watching the embers burning with the men’s team, a spark seems to have sprung up there as well. It really feels like the Polish team has something cooking maybe…but can the men really keep this up? And can the women bounce back from what was a now substandard first trimester?

The Polish men have some of the most exciting moments of the early 2025-2026 season. The young men like Jan Gunka and Konrad Badacz have flashed on the World Cup stage the last couple of seasons. And the even younger man Grzegorz Galica has shown incredible potential on the Juniors level. Now they are doing it on the World Cup.

This season alone the following achievements:

• Jan Gunka:
  – First career top 20 (and 2nd!) including career best 13th. Top three best career finishes and five of his top seven career finishes.
  – Qualified for the Mass Start in Annecy-le Grand Bornand
  – Currently ranked 27th in the Overall, best for a Polish man since 2009-2010.
• Konrad Badacz:
  – Two best career finishes, both 25th. Those are 3rd and 4th top 30s of his career
  – Currently ranked 45th which would itself be the best for a Polish man since 2010-2011.
• Grzegorz Galica
  – Finished 24th in his debut race. This was the best ever finish by a u19 athlete on the World Cup. In fact he was the first u19 athlete to ever score points let alone finish that high.
  – He had a superb “superman” off the course in the Hochfilzen Pursuit that went viral
• Team:
  – Currently three men ranked in the top 60 of the Overall. That hasn’t happened since the 1999-2000 Overall.

The cool part is that, while Galica was a known massive talent on the rise, Gunka and Badacz have seen their improvements come about organically over the last several years. This year each had specific improvements that brought them to this level. Gunka has improved his skiing from 1.3% slower than median up to 0.4% slower than median while reducing his average shooting time from 28.4 seconds to 25 seconds. Badacz has improved his hit rate from 82.9% to 90% while similarly improving his shooting time from 29.7 seconds to 26.1 seconds. The big question is if this is just a small sample size or did Uros Velepic build on what Rafal Lepel was building? Already one of the fan favorite stories of this season they can continue building their following with more successes!

Now what about Tobias Torgersen’s squad? Similar to the Polish men, outside of Kamila Zuk’s early success and Monika Jojnisz-Starega as basically a one woman army for a couple of seasons, there hadn’t been much to be excited about for several years. The biggest “story” for the Poles until a couple of seasons ago was Magdalena Gwizdon competing into her 40’s. Then things really started turning around two years ago. The 23-24 season started with Anna Maka and Joanna Jakiela finishing 9th and 11th in the season opening Individual. Since then it’s basically been every couple of weeks that the Polish women do something cool. That includes:

• Natalia Sidorowicz:
  – Two top 10’s in the 24-25 season including a near miss for the podium. Also her 20/20 Mass Start to close the 24-25 campaign in which she finished 9th, but could have been significantly higher if the skis had been better that day
  – Six Mass Start appearances in the last three years
  – 10 top 20’s in the last three seasons. 8th most in Polish women’s history
  – Finishing 29th in the Overall rankings in the 24-25 season. The first top 30 finish for the Polish women since Monika Hojnisz-Starega finished 12th in the 2019-2020 season.
• Joanna Jakiela
  – Her first career top 10 in the Oestersund Sprint this year along with the 11th place finish to open the 23-24 season
  – Six top 21 finishes in the last three seasons including two in the 25-26 campaign where she currently ranks 37th Overall
• Anna Maka
  – Top 10 to open the 23-24 season
  – Five top 10’s
• Team
  – Multiple Poles in the 23-24 Nove Mesto World Championship Mass Start

What all of this has done is raise the bar of hopes and expectations for the Polish team. Unfortunately, thus far, outside of Joanna Jakiela the team hasn’t quite reached the heights of the expectations. However, to be fair there have been some raises missed due to illness in Oestersund by Maka and Zuk as well as Hochfilzen by Jakiela. Meanwhile poor ski prep hampered the Sprint in le Grand Bornand putting a damper on that weekend.

One reason for optimism? The team already has four women who have scored points which just isn’t something that has happened much in recent Polish biathlon history. Also right now all four are in the top 61 which would be the highest placed 4th on the women’s team in many years. Also, hopefully, health luck will even out. Natalia Sidorowicz will certainly be racing better in the 2nd and 3rd trimesters.

Actually, in all honesty, I think that the Polish women are primed for an excellent close to the season. It’s been a quiet season and already the women have put four in the top 61. Just imagine where they will get when they can string together some healthy weeks?

So to answer the questions: I think yes the Polish men can continue to have a solid season even if not as good as they have been so far. And Yes, I think the Polish women are going to have a great 2nd and 3rd trimesters!

10) What Happens in Nove Mesto?

As of right now we basically know more top athletes who won’t participate in the competitions in Nove Mesto than those who will. It makes sense. Skipping the last weekend before Olympics is nothing new. It’s happened practically forever. Maybe it is just me but it feels like this season we’ve heard more athletes talking about it even before the season started.

This particular schedule it makes sense even more than usual. The competitions in Nove Mesto will take place at 620m. The arena in Antholz sits at over 1600m above sea level. A TON of athletes who have secured positions for the Olympics are going to want to get a jumpstart on reacclimating to altitude after nearly a month at less than 1000m in Germany for Oberhof an Ruhpolding. What’s more is that their federations are likely going to support them. So who will show up at Nove Mesto? Athletes from smaller federations almost assuredly because of the television exposure, sponsor contracts and the prize money. But it could be an opportunity for some younger athletes or some IBU Cup regulars to get some run for teams like Norway, Germany, France etc.

If you’re wondering what it has looked like in the past you can go back to Antholz in 2022 or 2018 (both times it occupied it’s traditional spot right before the Championships of the season) and nothing seems overall amiss. The “right” collection of names at the top. But, and again this may just be faulty memory, but I don’t remember such a large collection of athletes and federations talking about it openly. So we’ll see who shows up and in what form in Nove Mesto. It could be a pretty big opportunity.

11) Bonus: Who Is This Year’s Suvi?

Last year we all marveled at Suvi Minkkinen’s breakthrough first trimester. But the most remarkable thing was she kept it up for the entire season. Some times you see somebody have a great few weeks but then gravity takes hold and whatever special magic they had wears off and their performance reverts to their normal. But which of our athletes who started the season hot will be able to continue it? Check out who I pointed out right here in my piece 2025-2026 First Trimester Breakthrough and Career Best Seasons and keep an eye on them!