As the 2026 Olympic Games approach, most even casual biathlon fans know who will be the serious medal contenders in the non-relay races. If you’re new to biathlon or just tuning in for these Olympics take a quick glance back at some of the recaps found at this page https://penaltyloop.com/weekend-recps/ and you’ll find those athletes who have been performing so well this season.
But what about the athletes that aren’t expected? If you look back at the last few Olympic Games there is nearly always a name that you see now and think “Huh…that’s interesting.” Just a few examples:
– 2018 Peyongchang: Michal Krcmar and Dominik Windisch
– 2014 Sochi: Jaroslov Soukup
– 2010 Vancouver: Pavol Hurajt and Elena Khrustaleva
And it goes on. Just about every year there are 1-2 names that stand out. But who will be the possible 1-2 names from 2026 in Antholz?
Before we get in a few rules for who does and doesn’t count for this:
– If you compete for France or Norway then you’re not a surprise in the least. To be fair to the Norwegian women, if Juni Arnekleiv takes a non-relay medal I will be pretty surprised, but let’s just leave it like this. It’s easier.
– If you already have a podium this season or last, then no, we won’t be surprised to see you on the podium this time around.
– If you’re currently ranked in the top 15 of the Overall then no, it won’t be a surprise for you to have a great race. Same if you were top 10 in the 2024-2025 season or top 5 in the 2023-2024 season.
In general we’ll go from least surprising to most surprising on this list. The names at the top are kind of “Oh wow that was a great race for them! Look at them seizing their moment!” As you get a little further you get to the “Wow, I didn’t see that coming!” And then at the bottom it’s the “Holy crap! What did I just see!?!” As you fall off the couch in stunned amazement.
Let’s be clear though. We can’t possibly list every athlete ranked from 16th on down in the Overall. So I’m going to my best to limit myself from getting too verbose and lengthy. Just because somebody isn’t listed here doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t win. I’m far from nostradamus. Just trying to throw out a few names I’ve been thinking about! And if you have some that aren’t listed feel free to send them to me in the comments or on social media!
- 🇺🇦 Vitalii Mandzyn
The Case: Vitalii Mandzyn is one of the perfect athletes for this type of discussion. At this point he doesn’t meet any of the (admittedly) arbitrary, but I believe worthwhile, criteria that I laid out above. In the context of everything he has done to date, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him grab an Olympic medal at these 2026 Games in Antholz. However, he really does have a good case for why he could do it.
Mandzyn has prove to us that at this young stage, even though he still holds a relatively low floor, that he can put it together and challenge even the best in the World. Over the last two seasons he has just one top 10, which was a 4th place in the Kontiolahti Individual at the beginning of last season. But he does have 11 top 20’s in that stretch. Something that doesn’t necessarily come across in the pure numbers, is how often he’s in the mix until late in the course of a four shoot race. Eight of those top 20’s came in either an Individual, a Pursuit, or a Mass Start.
This is usually because he has, for the most part, been a very good shooter early in his career. However, let’s not overlook that ski improvement that he’s had going from 0.1% slower than median to -1.0% faster. His average ski ranked dropped nearly 10 positions with that. It’s given him an element he didn’t have last season. Now, when the time comes when he does his all 20 shots this year he’s going to make a serious run at a podium. Could it come as soon as next week?
Olympic Medal Scenario: For me this is a pretty easy one to imagine. So easy that I can actually think of two for Mandzyn. The first, and most likely, would be in the Individual where he goes 20/20. If he does that he’s almost assuredly in the top 10. If he has a very good ski day that bumps him up a little bit further and he’s right in the mix for the medals.
The other instance would be if he starts out with a solid Sprint. Let’s say he finishes 12th in the Sprint and is within 35 seconds of the podium. In this scenario, once again, at 20/20 puts him in range. - 🇸🇪 Jesper Nelin
The Case – The 3rd man in the Swedish team may not seem like a possible medal contender, but he really could find a way to get into the mix. He has had a remarkably consistent season. Out of 14 races this season he has eight finishes between 6th and 19th. These finishes have come in each discipline as well showing a well rounded performance quality. As a result he’s currently 17th in the Overall which would be the 2nd best finish of his career.
Nelin is having this success because he has remained a very good skier while also having the best shooting of his career. His average ski rank of 18th is right in line with where he has been for the last 5-6 seasons. That puts him running around 2.2% faster than median. He is also shooting 82.2% while hitting 81.7% standing, the best in his career.
Olympic Medal Scenario – Nelin almost assuredly will not medal in the Sprint. By and large the Sprint is going to be contested amongst the fastest men in the sport. However, he has finishes of 8th, 12th, and 17th in the Sprint this season. So he will be able to set himself up well for the Pursuit. That will be where his best chance will likely come. If, big if, he is able to go 20/20, he does have good enough skiing to compete in the Individual as well. - 🇨🇿 Vitezslav Hornig
The Case – One of the coolest, and I think least celebrated, breakthroughs of the lat two seasons is Vitezslav Hornig. Prior to lat season he had scored a single point in his entire World Cup career. On the IBU Cup he had been a good but not amazing competitor. Then last season all of a sudden his skiing caught up with his shooting. He surged from skiing 3.6% slower than median in the 2023-2024 season up to 1.7% faster last year. This year he hasn’t been quite as good, at 1.4% faster than median but still a huge jump.
And if you look at his skiing only in the second trimester it’s even better. His course time ranks in the 2nd trimester were on average 5 positions better than the 1st trimester. Also it included the single best course time ranks of his career, 7th in the Oberhof Pursuit.
Meanwhile he’s still hitting in the mid 80’s on the range. That’s still not quite as good as he was two seasons ago at 90%, but it’s definitely good enough. After finishing 20th in the Overall last year with four top 20’s a 5th place finish as well, he’s once again running in 19th Overall.
Olympic Medal Scenario – If it’s going to happen for Hornig it could really be in any discipline. He has top 10’s in the Individual, Sprint, and the Mass Start. And just because he doesn’t have one in the Pursuit he has three finishes of 11th or 12th in that discipline. For Hornig he has been skiing well enough and it’s actually getting better. So, if his shooting has an upward reversion towards his career norms, in the high 80’s, then he’s got a chance in every race. Is he a favorite? Nope. But he could absolutely be in the mix every time. - 🇨🇭 Niklas Hartweg
The Case – A couple of seasons ago this would not have been in the surprise medal winner category. Coming off of his blue bib winning 2022-2023 season, complete with two 2nd place finishes to bookend the season, Hartweg was a man of the future. Now in 2025-2026 the man he beat out in that young men’s globe winning season, Tommaso Giacomel, was just wearing Yellow as recently as last week while Hartweg has been beset with bad luck including numerous illnesses and injuries.
That’s not to say that Hartweg hasn’t been good, it’s just that it’s been in small streaks. Look at last season. From the start of the second trimester through the end of Pokljuka, he had nine top 10’s in 14 races. That included two top 5’s with a 4th in the Ruhpolding Individual race. He also had a 5th in the Individual in Lenzerheide at the World Championships. He had some of the best skiing of his career in that streak. Just recently in Oberhof and Ruhpolding, while he wasn’t quite as accurate on the range as he normally is, his skiing was improving again. In particular he looked excellent in both relays in the 2nd trimester. He then went to a private training camp to prep rather than Nove Mesto. From all things we’re hearing he’s in excellent shape right now.
Olympic Medal Scenario – In his career Niklas Hartweg has eight top 6 finishes. Of those four were in Individual races and all were in 4 shoot races. It’s clear what his path to a medal his: accurate shooting in one of these longer races where less accurate opponents fade away late in the race. The Individual and it’s especially penalizing 1:00 for missed shots would seem to be his best opportunity.
This seems like a pretty clear path actually. After this I would measure the Mass Start as a very good chance. Usually those races involve the athletes at the front of the pack not going full gas as they play the race rather than playing catch up. If he can go 20/20 and keep himself in that lead group, and not drain his legs trying to chase, this would be a great place for him to grab a medal as well. And then of course he could also use a solid Sprint to jump up the ranks to the podium in the Pursuit. - 🇩🇪 Justus Strelow
The Case – Justus Strelow over the last two seasons has been the ultimately high floor and low ceiling guy. He is a very good shooter hitting 88.7% or better each of the last five seasons. He’s a solid skier running 0.7% faster than median this season, the best of his career. Over the last four seasons he’s been a top 20 machine racking up at least 14 each year. In that time, though, while he’s had 49 top 20’s he’s had just 12 top 10’s. And only one podium. However, if you want to see reasons for optimism of his three career top 5’s, one of those came just this season when he finished 4th in the Annecy-le Grand Bornand Mass Start.
Ultimately it goes back to the first thing we shared about Strelow, he’s an excellent shooter. Every time he goes out there he can hit a 100% hit rate. This season he’s “only” done it three times. One of those times was, not surprisingly, that near podium in the Mass Start in France. He also skiing well enough that in the right circumstances, like a Mass Start, he can latch on with a group of faster skiers and hope to out shoot them.
Olympic Medal Scenario – I sort of gave it away but it’s what I just noted above. He’s not going to out sprint anybody out there, but Strelow can outshoot anybody on any given day. We’ve seen him hit crucial shots when the pressure is on too. If Strelow is in the Mass Start I think that’s his best option as he hangs on with the faster shooters at the front and outshoots them on the range. However, a Pursuit isn’t out of the question either as he could rise up out of the 8th to 13th range to find the podium as well. - 🇨🇿 Tereza Vobornikova
The Case – After three consecutive seasons of multiple top 10’s, and two years of at least 10 top 20’s, this season has been a little more quiet for the 25 year old Tereza Vobornikova. So far she has just one top 10 this season when she finished exactly 10th in the Short Individual in Nove Mesto. The thing about Vobornikova is that her potential is still so high that when we look back in the future it may just seem like this was a leading indicator of where she was heading and not like an aberrant out of nowhere medal.
When you look at her statistics you can see where the problem area has been. After hitting at least 85% standing every year of her career on the World Cup she’s down to 82.9% standing. Her overall his rate is down to 86.7%. In the past she’s been able to use that shooting to overcome her skiing which is just slightly ahead of median.
So why is she included on this list? It’s those 25 top 20’s in the last two seasons that last few seasons. There are some signs that she has been skiing a little bit better lately. Ruhpolding was a bit of a rough week for her but other than that she’s been top 20 ski ranks every race but 2 since the Annecy-le Grand Bornand Pursuit. That includes the single best ski rank of her career, 11th in the Nove Mesto Mass Start.
Again, we’re talking about surprising medal winners, but the recipe is there for her to be able to do it. A surging ski strength and shooting like she has been able to do in the past few seasons, she just hasn’t been doing this year.
Olympic Medal Scenario – Vobornikova has generally done well in all types of races. Looking at her top 10 finishes in her career they include three Sprints, two Individuals, two Pursuits, and two Mass Starts. Hard to know which one fits her the best. She did just have a 10th in the Short Individual so maybe there. However, I actually think it may be in the Mass Starts *if* she can get herself into it. She has two career top 10’s, both 8th place finishes, in Mass Starts. I believe that with improving skiing, and the shooting we know we can do, that’s the type of race that may get her on the podium! - 🇩🇪 Janina Hettich-Walz
The Case – In her return season after missing the 2024-2025 season on maternity leave, Janina Hettich-Walz has found a level of skiing that she’s never had before. Both her average ski ranking 15.8 and her level running 2.6% faster than median are significantly better than her prior career bests of 20.2 and -1.6%.
So if she’s skiing so much better than she was previously why is she not finishing as well as she did earlier in her career? In her last season before pregnancy she had two podiums and eight top 10’s including the silver medal in that season’s World Championships Individual race. This season, so far, just one top 10 which was 6th in the Oberhof Sprint.
Well frankly it’s easy. She’s hitting just 80.6% which is her lowest since the 2019-2020 season. That includes just four 90% hit rate races this year. Can she revert back to her career norm?
Olympic Medal Scenario – If you read all that’s it’s pretty simple right? She’s skiing more than well enough to get to the podium. She finished 6th in the Oberhof Sprint even with only hitting 9/10 and that’s a tough course. Before that race she had just a single top 10 in her career at Oberhof. If she rediscovers her shooting she is in the medal hunt in every single race. She hit 86% or better in three of her last four seasons so it is absolutely in there. If it comes out and she finally strings together some 90+% shooting days I won’t be surprised one bit to see her on the podium.
- 🇦🇹 Anna Gandler
The Case – If you ask most biathlon fans, most will say that it feels like Anna Gandler is not having a great season. Truth be told at 32nd Overall it would be her 2nd best Overall finish of her career. The problem is that none of us can forget what we saw to close the 2023-2024 season when she was just a lock for not just the top 10 but the top 6 is seemed. Everything looked so easy then. Not so the last two seasons.
This season she started out with a top 20 finishing 19th in the Individual in Östersund. Then she had just two top 30’s the rest of the 1st trimester. The second trimester was much better as she finished 25th and 28th in Oberhof and then two consecutive 14th place finishes in Ruhpolding. In Nove Mesto she finished 47th in the Short Individual and did not qualify for the Mass Starts. That level of skiing is actually better than she showed when she had that great run to close out the 23-24 season.
The best news for Gandler is her skiing is really coming along. After having 1 top 30 course time rank in the 1st trimester she was top 20 in ski times all but one race in the 2nd trimester, and she was gaining steam as it went along. Her shooting is also on the upswing as well. In the first four races of the second trimester she hit 90%, 80%, 90%, 90% followed by 14/20 in the Short Individual.
If you just show me those statistics, that’s the profile of an athlete who is going to compete for top 10’s or better. Looks good to me! Also worth mentioning that Gandler, like Vobornikova still possesses high potential so in the future a 2026 medal might not look out of place.
Olympic Medal Scenario – For Gandler the scenario doesn’t so much matter the discipline, it’s about getting it all together. I don’t totally think the Individual fits her well but everything else she could work herself into a true threat. To take the next step on to the podium she just needs to hit about 1-2 shots per race and ski just a tiny bit faster. If she does that she’ll be a contender every race she lines up for. Don’t let the results so far this season fool you…she’s close! - 🇸🇪 Anna-Karin Heijdenberg
The Case – I don’t want to spend too long on Anna-Karin Heijdenberg mostly because I’m not even sure she’s going to get a start. Look who else is on her team? She was the last woman to be named to the squad for a reason, they are a very stacked team. However, the named her to the team not because of her relay skills but because of her ability to race well in non-relay races. So let’s pretend she does end up starting a non-relay race,
Heijdenberg is a, at this point in her World Cup career a boom-or-bust competitor. On the IBU Cup the 25 year old contends for podiums basically every time out there. On the World Cup she has shown the ability to reach the top of the sport, mixed with a bunch of races in the 20’s or lower. If you just look in her last 11 races she has three top 10’s and five top 20’s. This includes 4th in the Pokljuka Short Individual, 8th that week in the Mass Start, and 10th in the Oberhof Sprint this season. She also finished 20th in the Oberhof Pursuit and 19th in the Ruhpolding Sprint this season.
It is Heijdenberg’s speed that gives her this ability. She’s actually skiing very well at -2.8% vs median which translates to an average course time rank of 12.7. The problem is she’s is only hitting 76.4%. This season includes four races hitting 80% or better and three races hitting 70% or worse. That’s the Heijdenberg experience at this stage in her career. Think of her as a poor man’s version of Julia Simon from about 4-5 seasons ago. Not quite as good but same idea. She hits her shots and she’s in contention for a top 10 or better. She doesn’t and it can get ugly quickly.
I think that’s paints a pretty good picture. So now…
Olympic Medal Scenario – It doesn’t matter the discipline, just the the way she races. If she hits 100% (or possibly 95% depending on the race dynamics) she legitimately has the ski speed to be in contention for a medal. I mean she has to actually get the start first, but if she does, AND if she hits 95+% she will be in the mix for a medal. - 🇨🇭 Sebastian Stalder
The Case – Sebastian Stalder’s lack of success this season compared to the 12 top 10’s and two top 5’s he had in 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 is a bit puzzling.
From a statistical perspective his output this season is very close to what it was those two years. He continues to be dynamite on the range hitting 90% once again. After a definitive drop in skiing last year, as he dipped from -0.5% and 0.1% vs median to 1.7% slower than median, this year he’s back to 0.3% slower or roughly where he was in the 2023-2024 campaign.
That has so far only translated to two top 20’s and j can’t really figure that one out. Did he just get lucky with race dynamics in those two seasons to accumulate so many top 10’s? Were those two 5th place finishes just luck? I honestly don’t know
Olympic Medal Scenario – Well if they weren’t just luck, and I don’t think they were, then he should be able to replicate that performance again. Seven of his 11 best finishes have come in Mass Start races. That’s a bit remarkable. But first he has to get to the Mass Start to get that opportunity. That requires being one of the top 15 virtual point earners during the first three races. Likely that entails a great Individual, so hitting 20/20 there. From there, if he sneaks into the Mass Start he’s got a chance. The skiing is just good enough to stay in the competition. If he can keep hitting his shots he’ll make sure he’s in the mix!
- 🇩🇪 David Zobel
The Case – This isn’t necessarily a strong fact based case, but it’s a case nonetheless. In the final leg of the Oberhof Relay David Zobel was up against: Vetle Sjåstad Christiansen, Eric Perot, Tommaso Giacomel, and Sebastian Samuelsson. Nobody would be surprised in the least if any of those four one multiple medals in Antholz over the next two weeks. David Zobel went toe to toe with them for 95% of the leg. He ultimately came up just short. His leg time was within 2 seconds of Christiansen and 5 seconds of Samuelsson. And almost most importantly he didn’t look overcome by the moment.
If you are looking at statistics his best case is that he’s skiing and shooting pretty well. Not great but pretty well. He’s running 1.6% faster than median and hitting 84.3%. So far that’s led to a season’s best of 9th in the Ruhpolding Sprint, the one time he hit 100%. That doesn’t sound great but he was just 13 seconds off the podium that day.
Olympic Medal Scenario – It’s likely a narrow window but we’ve seen David Zobel have Sprints where he was nearly good enough. The course in Ruhpolding and Antholz really aren’t that similar. But at least in Oberhof we saw him go head to head with the top dogs on a difficult day under pressure and come out with a good result. This tells me that if he puts himself in position with a good Sprint, top 10 and within 20-25 seconds, he may be able to make a run at a medal in the Pursuit. It’s going to take back to back good shooting days, which he hasn’t really done yet, but there is a path!
- 🇪🇪 Regina Ermits
The Case – We are currently experiencing the Regina Ermits career season. At 30 years old she’s made a big time leap up. Before this year her two best seasons occurred in 23-24 and 24-25 when she finished 48th and 47th Overall. Right now she’s 19th and she scored 120 points more than she did last season.
How is she doing that? She’s shooting out of her mind. She clearly found something amazing on the range this offseason. Prior to this season her best ever hit rate was 85.8%. Other than that she had just one other season hitting greater than 80% in a full season. Last year, her prior best Overall finish, she hit 79%. Right now she is hitting a wild 90.5%. That includes improving from 69% prone last season to 88.4% this year.
With that improvement she has regularly been in the top 20 and twice gotten herself into the top 10. Both of those were in Pursuits and came after not her best Sprint of the season. That actually gives me some hope…
Olympic Medal Scenario – It’s laid out right there, it’s the Pursuit or the Mass Start. If, and big if, she can take advantage of the Sprint and find her way to at least 10-13th position, and within 30-45 seconds she’s going to have a chance. She’s had some excellent Pursuit races rising from 23rd to 9th and 24th to 8th. So, in theory, if she starts higher she could have better chances. There is also the chance that she could win a battle of attrition in a Mass Start. If she can keep shooting clean and not have to chase, she may be able to latch on with the front group and have them pull her along to the podium. - 🇧🇪 Maya Cloetens/Lotte Lie
The Case – Okay I put these two together. It’s not really fair to them, but they share a very strong connection. For one they are both Belgian but that’s not the most important. The important part is their key to success. Both are successful because they ate consistently two of the best shooters in women’s biathlon. The last two seasons Cloetens has hit 91.3% and 91.6%. Lotte Lie has hit 90% every season but one in her career and right now is close to another at 89.3%.
They absolutely shoot well enough to contend for medals. Over the last few seasons Cloetens has two top 10’s and Lie has four. The only reason they don’t have a pile of them is they just aren’t quite fast enough. Cloetens is 0.7% slower than median and Lie is 0.3% slower.
How does that speed (or deficit) translate to podiums? It’s going to take a big time effort by either one of them. The ski effort of their lives.
Olympic Medal Scenario(s) – To start with Maya Cloetens and Lotte Lie need to do what they do best: hit targets. Just knock them down. Their best chance is going to be a four shoot race. Likely the Individual. The 1:00 penalty for misses gives them an advantage. To be fair it’s also the longest course so while a 20/20 by them would gain significant time over pretty much all of the other competitors, they will also shed some of that time back on the longer loops.
There is also the possibility in a Pursuit if they can start within 30-45 seconds of the podium that they could go 20/20 and steadily climb up. Or they could hit 20/20 in a Mass Start and just be the last women standing in a war of attrition.
It’s a slim chance, but so were those other examples we noted before from 2018, 2014, and 2010! Believe and it can happen!
- 🇵🇱 Natalia Sidorwicz
The Case – Over the last few years we’ve seen the Polish women under Coach Tobias Torgersen’s tutelage make forays into high placed finishes. None more so than Natalia Sidorowicz who made a leap last season to finish in the top 30 of the Overall including a 4th place finish in the opening Short Individual in Kontiolahti and the 9th place finish in the season closing Mass Start.
This season, though, we haven’t quite seen the same levels of success for Sidorwicz…yet. I am not worried at this point. We learned during the holiday break that she was experiencing back pain in the early part of the season. We saw in Nove Mesto that maybe she’s starting to reach her prior levels of performance including 11th in the Short Individual.
So far this season her statistics aren’t *quite* as good as they have been. She is shooting 84.4% which is very close to what she’s done the last few seasons. However, the difference this year is she hasn’t yet had her perfect shooting day. The last few seasons she’s been good for at least a couple 100% hit rate races including four of them last year. With her overall shooting percentage right in the same range we know that ability is in there and it absolutely will come out.
Her skiing, though, is where she’s been hurting. That is likely attributable to her back pain. Last year she was right around median in skiing whereas this season she is 1.4% slower than median. That’s the BIG question for her. Was she able to find that ski form in the last few weeks. She did have to do a bit of reset on her season over the holiday break so it could very well be that her peak is coming soon.
Olympic Medal Scenario – It starts with her having that 20/20 day. If she can get at least one of her 100% shooting days to happen in the Olympics then she could have multiple chance to find the podium. First and foremost is the Individual where she has had two of her best four finishes and lends itself to some quirky finishes. However, she has proven herself to have nerves of steel in the Mass Start. Last season she closed out the year with the only 20/20 shooting in that epic final race. She was right in the mix late but the only thing that hurt her was that unfortunately that day the wax team just had a dud of a day and she was fighting against her equipment. - 🇮🇹 Michela Carrara
The Case – As the world famous racer Lightning McQueen says to himself before every race “I am speed.” (Okay I did just spend a few days at Disneyland with my family for my son’s birthday and he’s a HUGE Cars fans so maybe I’m the only one who will get this reference). But this is perfect for Michela Carrara. She is pretty much as fast as anybody. If you look at her statistics they may not be glowing. Average ski rank of 15.2 and -2.7% vs Median? Thats not mind blowing. But if you remove a brief dip in the first trimester her ski ranks are: 2, 5, 24, 14, 7, 2, and 9. Pretty dang good.
Unfortunately so far this season she’s only been able to convert that to one top 20. She’s hitting just 67.9% this season which is…not great. Just last season, though, we saw what can happen when she does hit her shots. At the 2025 Lenzerheide World Championships she finished 5th in the Sprint and 8th in the Pursuit. That is always just one race away from coming out!
Olympic Medal Scenario – If it’s going to happen for Michela Carrara it will be the Sprint. Anything that limits her exposure on the shooting range. If she does hit 10/10 she’s going to put up a high finish and quite possibly a medal. And if that happens the Italian fans are going to go wild!
- 🇺🇸 Deedra Irwin
The Case – The 33 year old American is having undoubtedly her greatest ever season. She’s already set a career most six top 20’s and has two top 10’s already this season to move her to 26th in the World. She’s one of just four women to accomplish these feats. Of course, it’s well known that Americans have never won an Olympic medal. So why would Deedra Irwin be different?
Well to start with, who has the best finish by an American ever at the Olympic Games? Deedra Irwin. In her debut Games in 2022 she finished what was at the times a shocking 7th place in the Individual. So she’s has the experience both at the Olympics and performing well at them.
This season Deedra Irwin is doing the two most important things in biathlon better than she ever has in her life. She’s skiing faster and hitting more targets than ever. Her average ski rank of 34.6 is right in line with her career bests as she runs -0.3% vs median. She’s also hitting 87.8% with even splits prone/standing.
The best argument for Irwin is that she already nearly pulled off a podium this season. In the Short Individual in Nove Mesto she came to her last shoot 15/15 and running in the top 5. She ultimately missed 2 and finished 13th. Put that long with her 10th in the Sprint in le Grand Bornand, 13th in that week’s Mass Start, 10th in the Mass Start in Nove Mesto and this is a woman who has been in the mix.
The Olympic Medal Scenario – For Irwin to get a medal it almost has to be an incredible Performance in an Individual. She has to go 20/20 and ski her heart out. She also would need to get some assistance from some top women throwing her some misses. It’s a long shot for sure, but we’ve seen her get herself into the mix. Why not one more time on the grandest stage?
- 🇲🇩 Alina Stremous
The Case – When I look at Stremous’ stats I actually wonder why she isn’t having a better season. She’s hitting 90% this year along with -1.4% skiing vs median. Those two things together should be a lock for top 20’s. Yet she only has three this season in seven races. Why she’s only raced seven times on the World Cup is a whole other question. She spent a week on the IBU Cup where she did earn a podium finish.
Looking at her statistics, her skiing stated off very good before falling off dramatically in the last few weeks. Hard to tell if she started too hot or if she is aiming for an Olympic peak? But after a ski rank of 4th early in the season she best she’s done in the 2nd trimester is 24th.
The way she gets to the podium is we see her ski like that again on a day when she goes 10/10 in a Sprint. Is it likely? Not very which is why she’s down here. But she’s shown she can do it, and every now and then she does throw out a quirky good performance. She also does have three European Championship medals plus another 4th, so she does now how to get on podiums.
The Medal Scenario – It’s pretty much exactly as it would be for Deedra Irwin. In fact the next two will be the same. Either she goes 20/20 with a very good ski day, and she gets some help from the top contenders, or she takes advantage of an excellent Sprint race to catapult into contention in the Pursuit.
Lastly I wanted to throw in a few names I considered but ultimately didn’t end up choosing to put on my big research list:
- 🇸🇮 Polona Klemencic
- 🇨🇭 Joscha Burkhalter
- 🇱🇻 Renars Birkentals
- 🇵🇱 Joanna Jakiela
- 🇺🇦 Dmytro Pidruchnyi
- 🇦🇹 Tamara Steiner
- 🇦🇹 Simon Eder