As the first trimester has come to a close and we turn our eyes to the remainder of the season we’ve come to the point where true contenders separate away from the rest of the field. In general the men’s race tends to have fewer athletes battling for the Overall Crystal Globe than the women’s race. Over the last few seasons, by the end of December it is usually clear that only a handful of men (at most) will have a chance to raise the big Globe at the end of the year.
The 2023-2024 season is following along with just about the same pattern. After starting out appearing to be absolutely wide open with some surprising races in Oestersund, by the time we head to our two week swing in Germany you can fairly easily cut the list down to five men with a real chance at the Globe. And truthfully you can probably make the case that it is down to even fewer than that…maybe even that it’s already over. But that’s no fun now is it?!?
So first let’s take a look at the top 10 and where we stand right now:
| Athlete | Current Score |
| Johannes Thingnes Bø | 484 |
| Tarjei Bø | 411 (-73) |
| Johannes Dale-Skjvedal | 366 (-118) |
| Endre Stroemsheim | 317 (-167) |
| Sturla Holm Lægreid | 301 (-183) |
| Philipp Nawrath | 300 (-184) |
| Vetle Sjåstad Christiansen | 287 (-197) |
| Benedikt Doll | 286 (-198) |
| Martin Ponsiluoma | 284 (-200) |
| Sebastian Samuelsson | 281 (-203) |
For the purposes of this exercise I cut down the “real contenders” list to the men who I believe would have the best chance of winning the Overall should everything go right for them the rest of the way. We’re going to pretend that everybody has good health the rest of the way including no injuries and most importantly no COVID as that has already affected the Overall race.
You’ll also notice that this list isn’t simply the four men closest behind JT Bø and of course JT Bø himself. There is a reason for that. Like I said I tried to make it a list of the men that I think have the best chance at winning if everything goes right for them. I’m going to briefly run through the men I didn’t include on this list and give a 1-2 sentence explanation of why.
Philip Nawrath: He’s had a shockingly good start to the season and has been one of the early fun stories on the men’s side. However, he’s a bit of a one trick pony. For Nawrath it’s all about the Sprint and he really doesn’t get many points outside of that. Can’t ride that to an Overall
Endre Strømsheim: As written about in the piece that came out last week The Norwegian Six I think that Stroemsheim’s first fight is in staying on the Norwegian team. Should be manage to retain a starter’s bib the entire season he could be on this list. I just couldn’t have him both on the bubble there and on this list.
Vetle Sjåstad Christiansen: He’s already missing a week in Oberhof. That plus his form being just down a touch from last season is too much to overcome.
Benedikt Doll: He was an amazing story winning the Sprint in Lenzerheide. Other than that race he’s averaging just 28 points per race. That won’t get it done.
Martin Ponsiluoma: He’s been more consistent of late with three 4th place finishes in the last five races. He’s back on the path to having a top 10 Overall season. But he’s not going to be in contention late.
Okay…now on to the men who at least have an argument at being in the race! They are ordered by how likely I think they are to win in ascending order (most likely is at the bottom of this list. I think you know who it is going to be!). I’ve assigned them a “percent chance” of winning the Overall globe. There is no analytics at play here. These are all just numbers I came up with off the top of my head just based on their situation right now. If you were to crunch the numbers I’m sure these wouldn’t be strictly accurate but I feel they do a good job of giving a picture of where we are now and their chances of winning this thing. (And yes, they do add up to 100%!)
Sebastian Samuelsson
| Statistic | Current Rank |
| Overall Rank/Points | 10th / 281 (-203) |
| Average Finish | 4.0 (Rank = 1) |
| Podium Percentage | 40% |
| Overall Ski Rank | 1st |
| Back from Median | -6.01% |
| Shooting Percentages | 87.5/82.5/85 (Rank = 43) |
| Shooting Speed | 28.2 seconds (Rank = 52) |
If you ask Sebastian Samuelsson he’ll say that the Overall is “already decided.” It’s a bit unclear to me if he meant for everybody or just that he’s too far behind to make a run at it. Either way he may be correct. However, I wanted to include him on this list primarily because I want to celebrate what a great start to the season he had. He’s known to have really good starts but this year he really looked like he was ready to contend.
Over those first five races he was a constant factor in the race. And even though he didn’t shoot well enough to win more than once, he was running clearly faster than anybody else in the field. It was good enough to have an average finish of 4.0 over those five races clearly the best of anybody in the first trimester.
So how did the last 10 Overall winners fare in average finish?
– 2022-2023: JT Bø = 1.7
– 2021-2022: QFM = 5.3
– 2020-2021: JT Bø = 4.4
– 2019-2020: JT Bø = 2.4
– 2018-2019: JT Bø = 2.8
– 2017-2018: Martin Fourcade = 2.7
– 2016-2017: Martin Fourcade = 2.2
– 2015-2016: Martin Fourcade = 5.8
– 2014-2015: Martin Fourcade = 9.8
– 2013-2014: Martin Fourcade = 4.2
It’s a massive if, but if Sebastian Samuelsson were to maintain an average finish of 4th throughout the rest of the season he would actually be in line for what historically would put him in the mix for the Overall title.
The probably for Samuelsson is week 3 of the World Cup just went wrong in every possible way. It was disastrous to get COVID and miss a weekend that included three races worth of points. It was catastrophic that JT Bø of all people quite nearly got maximum points with two wins and a 2nd. It was ruinous that not only that but Lægreid, Dale-Skjvedal, Stroemsheim, and Tarjei Bø all accumulated a good chunk of points as well. The end result is that as Samuelsson said, for him at least, it may already be decided.
Chance of winning the Overall Globe: 3%
Tarjei Bø
| Statistic | Current Rank |
| Overall Rank/Points | 2nd / 411 (-73) |
| Average Finish | 7.6 (Rank = 3rd) |
| Podium Percentage | 50% |
| Overall Ski Rank | 7th |
| Back from Median | -3.76% |
| Shooting Percentages | 92.3/87.7/90 (Rank = 16) |
| Shooting Speed | 28.5 seconds (Rank = 56) |
Realistically do I think Tarjei Bø is going to win the Overall Globe? No, I do not. However, already this season he’s already worn yellow for the first time in a decade, and he’s currently second Overall so how can you leave him off?
Tarjei Bø has had one of the most consistent runs of great biathlon that we probably won’t remember enough because his career overlapped basically entirely with the greatness of Martin Fourcade and his terrific younger brother Johannes Thingnes. Over the last eight years he’s finished between 4th and 7th every year except for his shortened 2016-2017 campaign when he only raced eight times.
Throughout this near decade of high level racing his constant has been his ski speed which is always top 10. This year he hasn’t missed a step as he’s still the 7th fastest man in biathlon. The key to his success this season is that he’s having the best shooting season of his entire career. Nearly ever season he’s been between 85-88%. This year he’s hitting 90% exactly.
Can he keep this up? Well I have no reason to believe that he won’t. It would be an unlikely (but very fun!) if he were to do this without a single dip for the entire rest of the season. Usually he has about 1 weekend per season where he has a little drop. If he can avoid that this season he’ll continue to be near the top of the rankings. Can he take down his brother though? That’s no easy task.
Chance at winning the Overall Globe: 5%
Sturla Holm Lægreid
| Statistic | Current Rank |
| Overall Rank/Points | 5th / 301 (-183) |
| Average Finish | 10.0 (Rank = 8) |
| Podium Percentage | 28.6% |
| Overall Ski Rank | 23rd |
| Back from Median | -1.98% |
| Shooting Percentages | 89.1/96.4/92.7 (Rank = 5) |
| Shooting Speed | 25.7 seconds (Rank = 18) |
After the first races in Oestersund it was unthinkable that Sturla Holm Lægreid would be on this list. Yet, two weeks and four top 4 finishes later here he is yet again. He still doesn’t look totally like himself but he’s back in the top 5 of the Overall and with a history like his (three straight 2nd place Overall finishes) you can’t leave him off the list.
So first, why does he have a chance? Because he shoots as well or better than anybody in biathlon. After shooting “only” 90% in the first weekend of racing he hit 95% in Hochfilzen and Lenzerheide. Now at 92.7% he’s right back to his normal phenomenal accuracy. When you hit like that you’re going to keep yourself in a lot of races and almost assuredly won’t miss any Pursuits.
Why is he going to struggle to contend? He’s clearly the slowest of the bunch. To be fair he’s rebounded very well after a serious struggle in the icy weather in Oestersund.
– Avg course time rank Oestersund: 34.3
– Avg course time rank Hochfilzen + Lenzerheide: 16.3
– Avg course time Rank 20-21: 11.2
– Avg course time rank 21-22: 11.2
– Avg course time rank 22-23: 8.3
So he’s not quite back to where he was the last three seasons when he finished 2nd Overall. But he’s also clearly headed in the right direction with his skiing. Presumably he should come back from the break even closer to his normal self if not all the way back. We’ve already seen that Sturla Holm Lægreid at maximum potential is enough to compete for the Globe so here he is on the list. Still he’s coming from pretty far back and he’s chasing one of if not the greatest to ever do it.
Chance at winning the Overall Globe: 5%
Johannes Dale-Skjvedal
| Statistic | Current Rank |
| Overall Rank/Points | 3rd / 366 (-118) |
| Average Finish | 7.8 (Rank = 5) |
| Podium Percentage | 25% |
| Overall Ski Rank | 2nd |
| Back from Median | -5.42% |
| Shooting Percentages | 84.6/84.6/84.6 (Rank = 46) |
| Shooting Speed | 28.9 seconds (Rank = 67) |
How wild is this? Just two seasons after being demoted to the IBU Cup, Johannes Dale-Skjvedal has started out this season as one of the strongest men in the world. Primarily he’s been skiing at a level that we’ve just never seen from him. Don’t get me wrong, he’s always been fast, but this is outrageous. His average course time rank is 2.3. Prior to this season his best ever was 5.5 in the 20202-21 season (the year before his demotion).
Unfortunately for Dale-Skjvedal he’s never been a particularly strong shooter. This season is no different. He’s not bad by any means. But hitting 84.6% is not what we normally expect from an Overall Globe champion. His teammate JT Bø has shown that you can grab the Overall with middle of the pack shooting though. He’s twice won it hitting just 85% of his shots (still more than Dale-Skjvedal this season).
So why can Dale-Skjvedal win the Overall Globe this season? He’s skiing at a level only matched by Samuelsson and JT Bø. You don’t need to be an expert (and I’m certainly not!) to know that skiing that fast gives you an excellent chance at being competitive race in and race out. The problem is just going to be the shooting. If he can just raise that 1-2% then he’s going to give himself a real chance at making a run at the Globe. But what’s the biggest reason he won’t win it? The man standing in his way.
Chance at winning the Overall Globe: 12%
Johannes Thingnes Bø
| Statistic | Current Rank |
| Overall Rank/Points | 1st / 484 |
| Average Finish | 6.5 (Rank = 2nd) |
| Podium Percentage | 62.5% |
| Overall Ski Rank | 3rd |
| Back from Median | -5.28% |
| Shooting Percentages | 89.2/83.1/86.2 (Rank = 40) |
| Shooting Speed | 27.9 seconds (Rank = 43) |
Well here we are once again. Johannes Thingnes Bø is sitting atop the Overall standings with a fairly comfortable lead as the calendar turns over to a new season. As things stand today we are 38% of the way through the season. It’s certainly not a certainty that JT Bø is going to win his 5th globe in 6 seasons but if you’re a competitor with his eyes on the Overall this is absolutely NOT what you want to see.
While it may seem like we were always destined to be here, as the season got under way in Oestersund this seemed like far from a certainty. Bø just didn’t look quite like his normal self as he finished 3rd in the Individual but just 18th in the Sprint and 15th in the Pursuit. While he was still running decently fast, finishing 3rd, 5th and 1st in course time rank in Sweden, he looked like a man who admittedly wasn’t coming in on his best form. As he compounded that by hitting just 84% he somehow looked mortal.
Fast forward two weeks from there and JT Bø has since finished 11th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 1st. Yep that looks more like it. Here’s how his stats are in those races:
– Hochflizen Sprint: Course time rank: 2nd / Shooting Percentage: 70%
– Hochfilzen Pursuit: Course time rank: 2nd / Shooting Percentage: 95%
– Lenzerheide Sprint: Course time rank: 1st / Shooting Percentage: 90%
– Lenzerheide Pursuit: Course time rank: 6th (big lead) / Shooting Percentage: 85%
– Lenzerheide Mass Start: Course time rank: 1st / Shooting Percentage: 90%
To put it in more perspective here are his stats in Oestersund and then since then plus some others
| Time Period | Average Finish | Average Course Time Rank | Shooting Percentage |
| 23-24 Week 1 | 12.0 | 3 | 84% |
| 23-24: Week 2-3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 87.5% |
| 2022-2023 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 90% |
| 2020-2021 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 85.2% |
| 2019-2020 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 92.1% |
| 2018-2019 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 85.6% |
What is the point of showing that? Over the last two weeks of trimester 1 JT Bø was pretty well replicating the performances of his Overall Globe winning seasons. Currently he has a 73 point lead on his brother in 2nd and 118 on Johannes Dale-Skjvedal in 3rd. There is no way that JT Bø is anything but the overwhelming favorite to win the Overall Globe this season.
Chance at winning the Overall Globe: 75% (and that might be an underestimate)
So what’s the grand takeaway then? JT Bø is the HEAVY favorite to win his 5th career Overall Globe. After a bit of an uncharacteristic start he’s just looking more and more like himself. That’s not to say somebody else can’t win it, but JT Bø is in control of his own fate. As they say in tennis, the competition is on his racket. It’s his to win and either he does as we all expect or we will be surprised to see him stumble.
One thought on “Men’s Overall Race Breakdown”