Sweden 2024-2025 Team Preview

Sweden shares a border and a friendly, but intense, rivalry with their Norwegian neighbors. It’s a constant competition in everything. While historically one sided, the biathlon battle is starting to heat up! The Swedish women, boosted by the Oeberg sisters, finished ahead of the Norwegian women in the Nation’s Cup in the 2022-2023 season for the first time in a decade. Last year the Norwegian women just edged out their neighbors by 81 points. Meanwhile on the men’s side Sebastian Samuelsson continues to strive to *finally* overtake the Norwegian powerhouse. Every offseason he says the right things, but thus far, the 27 year old hasn’t quite been able to conquer his foes.

As we enter the 2024-2025 season is reason for optimism for both the men and the women. Samuelsson is just entering what should be his peak years. Maybe the birth of his son will push him to new highs? And few men can claim to be faster than Martin Ponsiluoma on the skis. The Swedish men also took home relay gold at Worlds lasts season! On the women’s side the Oeberg sisters should continue to fight for wins every time out. Meanwhile the women’s relay team should once again be in contention for the relay title this season.

Women: Just a couple of years ago it looked like the Swedish women were going to be the squad to beat. Sometimes it’s amazing how quickly things can change. Don’t get me wrong, the women are still an immensely talented team, but the French women have overtaken them and the German women may be coming soon. However, this team still has plenty of talent, and while the French are still the Nations Cup favorites the Swedes can at least make them work for it!

Coaches:
– Head Coach: Johannes Lukas
– National Shooting Coach: Jean-Marc Chabloz and Johan Hagstrom

Quota: 6 Athletes to Start

World Class: We start off by looking at the Oeberg siblings who together are the leading edge of the Swedish team. This duo can win pretty much every time they show up at the starting line. Last year may have seen them a little off their top game but they are still easily in the primes of their careers and should bounce back this season.

Elvira Oeberg (25)

At the start of every season, likely for the next 10 years or so, when we all make our lists of who can win the Overall Globe in March, Elvira Oeberg’s name will be present. After peaking at 2nd in the Overall at just 23 years old, Elvira has finished 5th in 22-23 and 7th last season. Last year Elvira added another win to her career total, bringing it to 8, along with four podiums, eight top 5’s, and 14 top 10’s. All of those, except for top 10’s were lower than the prior to seasons. It should also be noted that the last two seasons Elvira has shown stretches of great racing but has had some issues with luck and health that have clearly hampered her.

When we look at her Elvira’s performance over the last three seasons she continues to be one of the fastest women around. She has finished 2nd, 4th, and 4th in the last three seasons in ski rankings. That doesn’t entirely tell the whole story though. Elvira started out last season very fast and finished top five in course time rank each of the first 11 races of the season. After that, though, she finished top 5 in skiing in a race just one time. She finished outside the top 10 in skiing eight times in the last half of the season. That was her most races with course time ranks outside of the top 10 in a season since 2020-2021. So even though her overall ski rank for the season was still very high, it was boosted by the incredible start to the season.

	Prone %	Standing %	Total %	Shooting Time
2019-2020	76	82.7	79.3	32.5
2020-2021	83	81.5	82.3	29.5
2021-2022	82.6	87.9	85.3	29.4
2022-2023	89.3	87.9	88.6	29.4
2023-2024	84.3	83.3	83.8	28.9

Meanwhile her shooting took a definite step back. As you look at her shooting she was progressively getting more and more accurate over the last four season. Last year she slipped in both prone and standing shooting by over 4.5%. She did shoot slightly faster but it was just 0.5 seconds faster.

What will we see from Elvira Oeberg this upcoming season? I sincerely hope that we see a return to form. Even with the clear deterioration in her condition later in the season, Elvira finished 7th Overall. That’s how good she is! I think a healthy and in form Elvira can absolutely be in contention for the Overall and I think we’re about to see another top 5 Overall finish in the 2024-2025 season.

Hanna Oeberg (29)

Elvira Oeberg’s distinguished sister Hanna joins her sister in the World Class category of the Swedish team. Going into last season Hanna Oeberg had a streak of five straight finishes ranked between 4th and 7th in the Overall. Ultimately though, just like her sister, she saw a small step back in her performance that led her to drop from 7th in the Overall in 22-23 down to 12th in 23-24. For Hanna the 23-24 season was her first since 2016-2017 in which she did not have a single victory. In fact she had just one podium and only three top 5’s and 10 top 10’s, all of which, while aspirational for most biathletes, were her least since the 2017-2018 season.

When looking at Elvira’s season it’s fairly clear to see where things went off the rails a bit. For Hanna it’s a bit more opaque. She continued to be quite good on the skis coming in 13th overall in skiing. While slightly down from her top 10 speed the prior to years it was still in line with where she was for the first three of her five straight top 7 finishes in the Overall. Her shooting rank of 35th, while hitting 85.8% of her shots, was also fairly consistent with her previously performance and certainly not a dramatic decline. Her shooting speed was also faster as well so she kept pace with the rapidly accelerating shooting of recent years.

	Prone %	Standing %	Total %	Shooting Time
2017-2018	85.7	89.5	87.6	29.6
2018-2019	91.5	85.5	88.5	27.4
2019-2020	90	82	86	25.7
2020-2021	85.2	83.8	84.5	26.7
2021-2022	80	80	80	25.9
2022-2023	82.2	90.3	86.2	25.8
2023-2024	86.8	84.7	85.8	24.1

If you look at the granular race-by-race data she as a little more race to race variance. It’s quite possible that it was these a little more hit or miss with her race days, and that when you’re competing at the highest levels of the sport it was just enough to push her down from the middle of the top 10 to just on the outside looking in. On the other hand, this season she finished a full 300 points back of 7th place (Elvira Oeberg) where she finished the 2023-2024 season which is definitely a little bit more than variance.

With Hanna Oeberg it’s just difficult to completely identify what caused the slide. On one hand that makes me more confident in saying that she can bounce back in the 24-25 season and grab a couple of more victories and move herself up to the top 10 once again. On the other hand it’s a little more difficulty to say that she can do fix the issue if I can’t even say what exactly the issue is. I’m going to lean on the side of optimism and say that we’re going to see a Hanna Oeberg with results that look more like 2-3 years ago than last year though.

World Cup: Linn Gestblom and Anna Magnusson are the 3rd and 4th ranked Swedish women and yet they are still consistently in the top 20. There is no reason to expect that they won’t continue that level of performance this season. Then we need to find two more women to fill out the roster. Who else will be there? Here’s our Swedish women’s roster to start the season:
– Elvira Oeberg
– Hanna Oeberg
– Anna Magnusson
– Anna-Karin Heijdenberg
– Ella Halvarsson
– Sara Andersson
– Linn Gestblom (Persson) – still recovering from shoulder surgery

Linn Gestblom (30)

Regardless of whatever happens in the early part of the biathlon season the highlight of 2024 from Linn Gestblom (Persson) will of course her wedding this summer to Christian Gestblom. By the way if you look at what I believe is his Instagram account (unless he has a more private one) there are a total of six posts and four of them are celebrating his wife. What a great husband! Congratulations to both of them on their wedding and starting their married lives together!

Gestblom’s biathlon year has not nearly been as cheery as all of that though. She finished up a career year in the 2022-2023 season ranked 13th in the Overall with four podiums as well as the World Championship silver in the Individual and bronze in the Sprint. No matter how you look at it the 22-23 season was phenomenal, even more so when you consider she did it needing shoulder surgery in the offseason.

Well she had that surgery last spring and never quite healed properly. As a result the 23-24 season was a struggle from the start. She still managed to race reasonably well with four top 10’s in 16 races. However, she clearly was not able to reach the same level that she had been the year prior and talked about how the shoulder was causing her discomfort. Gestblom ended up ending her season early, going home after the World Championships to have another surgery on the same shoulder and give herself a little more time. Unfortunately it has still been a long recovery process. She missed the first two training camps over the summer finally joining up with the team in August. Even then she was following an alternative training plan. She will be out for at least the first few weeks of the 2024-2025 season and will hopefully make a recovery to return to the fight in the 2nd trimester.

The remarkable thing about Gestblom’s 23-24 season was that even with the shoulder discomfort she still managed the 12th best average finishing position. So if she had been able to run a full season she likely would have had another top 15 or so Overall finish. Her skiing did show a mild regression year over year when compared to the median top 10 course times moving from +2.4% slower to 3.2% slower. Interestingly, and somewhat tellingly, she was still 1.7% faster than the median World Cup woman last year indicating that some of the slip was rather that the top 10 fastest women got faster. She also so virtually no slip in her shooting dropping from 88.9% total hit rate to 88.5%. That was still the 2nd best shooting of her career. However, as you can see her average shooting time did regress back towards her career average after a sensational 25.7 second average in the 22-23 season.

	Prone %	Standing %	Total %	Shooting Time
2017-2018	89.3	85.7	87.5	33.2
2018-2019	87.1	87.9	87.5	33.3
2019-2020	89.3	82.1	85.7	31.6
2020-2021	89.1	78.6	83.8	30.9
2021-2022	86.5	80	83.2	30.2
2022-2023	88.3	89.4	88.9	25.7
2023-2024	88.9	88.2	88.5	29.2

What Linn Gestblom will we be getting this season? It’s hard to tell. If she was able to do all of that while still struggling with the shoulder then it’s possible if not probable that she’ll be back to her excellent self. It really depends on how quickly she’s able to regain her form. If she can do it relatively quickly with basically just 2-3 months of full training then we’ll hopefully see another of what has come to be a standard Linn Gestblom season meaning 4+ top 10’s and several top 5s. However, it may take her a trimester or so to warm up, so we may not see the full Gestblom experience until Oberhof. If that’s the case she can still be very very good!

Anna Magnusson (29)

Two years ago Anna Magnusson made her bit breakthrough. She had her stunning first career victory in Annecy and followed that up with several more top 10’s and another podium in the last Sprint of the year. It was such a jump across all areas of performance that it was difficult to tell if she would be able to maintain it. Last year she proved that the 22-23 season was no fluke. While she didn’t have another win or podium Magnusson maintained her consistent high level with 13 top 20’s in 24 races including five top 10’s which fell just shy of her 23-24 totals.

Throughout her career Magnusson has shown a steady progression in her skiing as she has moved slightly up the rankings every year. From 81st best skier in the 2017-2018 season up to 28th last season. By nearly every metric the 23-24 season was her best yet on the skis. Her shooting meanwhile, solidified in consistently in the mid 80’s. She did have a bit of a slip in the 2020-2021 season but since then she has hit 84.2%, 86.5%, and 85.5% in each of the last three seasons. Her big shooting improvement came in her shooting speed where over the last two seasons she has sliced a neat 3 seconds off of her previous best shooting time. That might not sound like much but in a four shoot race that adds up to 12 seconds!

	Prone %	Standing %	Total %	Shooting Time
2020-2021	73.7	80	76.8	32.2
2021-2022	85	83.5	84.2	31
2022-2023	91	82	86.5	28.4
2023-2024	88	83	85.5	28.1

Having now seen this level of racing for two consecutive years, and barring injury/illness there is no reason to believe that she can’t replicate it once again. Another top 15 season in the Overall is certainly within reach. If the can run at this level again then she certainly has the potential if everything comes together in a race or two to find a couple more podiums this season. It’s also certainly possible that she can find just a little bit more ski speed which would raise the already high floor on her performance and give her just a few more opportunities for top 5’s and top 10’s.

Anna-Karin Heijdenberg (24)

One of my favorite stories of last season was that of Anna-Karin Heijdenberg. She was somebody who was pretty much entirely off of my radar coming into last season. Hey don’t blame me! Before last year her last IBU races were the 2022 Junior Worlds where she had the best Juniors finish of her career of 27th. Last season was just an explosion though.

She started out the year on the IBU Cup and in the very first weekend she already garnered her first career top 10, a 10th in the Sprint. Over the next two weeks of racing she finished 8th, 3rd, 7th, and 4th. So, after not racing on the IBU level in 2022-2023 she came out on the IBU Cup and had top 10’s in five of her first six races including her first career podium. After the New Year her performance wasn’t quite as extraordinary but she still had three more top 10’s over the next four weeks of racing. It was good enough that when Linn Gestblom called an early end to the season Heijdenberg hopped up to take her spot on the World Cup for the final trimester.

Over that last three weeks of racing on the World Cup she ran four races and finished 15th, 76th, 25th, and 46th. Not too bad for a then 23 year old making her World Cup debut. Even missing the last couple of weekends on the IBU Cup she still finished 11th Overall on that level and actually finished 3rd in the Sprint discipline.

With her success in the Sprint discipline compared to the others it is not exactly surprising to see that Heijdenberg’s success tends to come from her skiing rather than her rifle. Last season she ranked 15th on the IBU Cup in skiing. On the World Cup her ski ranks were 20, 38, 26, and 41. Last year her average course time rank of 31.3 would have put her around Lisa Theresa Hauser, Deedra Irwin, and Joanna Jakiela. Her shooting though definitely shows room for improvement. Last year she hit at at 77.8% clip with no preference for prone vs. standing. She has limited Juniors data to compare to but this represented a substantial improvement vs her prior competitions.

With the top four spots on the World Cup roster likely locked up once Linn Gestblom returns, Anna-Karin Heijdenberg certainly has a chance to secure her spot for the full season. She is just 24 as she starts this season and has already shown very good ski potential. If her shooting continues to improve as it has thus far in her young career she has the ability to make a strong case to be a member of the future core of the Swedish team. As far as this season is concerned, if she can continue to get a little bit faster and improve her shooting just into the 80’s that would be very similar to what Selina Grotian was able to do last season (Avg course time rank 24.9 and shooting 81.4%). Last year Grotian ended up 29th Overall. While that would be a substantial step up for her, top 30 in the Overall would be a great goal for Heijdenberg this season.

Sara Andersson (21)

Somehow still just 21 years old, Sara Andersson already raced a full World Cup schedule last season with time out for the European Championships and Junior Worlds. That’s a hefty schedule for somebody in their age 20 season! Andersson had a significant amount of success too. In her 11 World Cup starts she six top 40’s including a career best finish of 16th in the Ruhpolding Sprint. Racing amongst her age cohort at Junior Worlds she flexed strength winning gold in the Sprint, 4th in the Mass 60, and 15th in the Individual. All in all it was a terrific season for Sara Andersson!

We do it all the time, but as the years go by it really strikes me how wild it is to be comparing World Cup stats for a 20 year old to those of women 10 years older. But that’s where Andersson was competing last year and she more than held her own. She ranked 57th in skiing with an average course time rank of 48.5 as she was 1.5% slower than the median biathlete and 7.2% slower than the top median top 10 biathlete. However, when you look at her compared to other 20 and 21 year olds at Junior Worlds you see a woman who finished 2nd, 1st, and 3rd in course time rank in her three races. Don’t let those World Cup numbers fool you, Sara Andersson has very high ski potential.

Meanwhile her shooting was actually some of the worst of her career. On the World Cup she hit 79.4% overall with 83.8% prone and 75% standing. That was her first season under 80% in four years (since she was 17 years old). Prior to this she was consistently in the mid to low 80’s. In her Junior Worlds races she actually hit exactly 80%. She also is already shooting quickly compared to her anybody she is racing against. Last season she averaged 28.4 seconds per shoot which on the World Cup was good enough for 28th fastest last season.

I was so close to making Sara Andersson the 5th “lock” for the World Cup spot and there is a very good argument that I should have done that. I would still be pretty surprised to see anything other than World Cup starts for her this season. Progress, especially at this age, isn’t always linear though. She may have a gigantic leap forward, she may have a tiny improvement, or she may even plateau for a season before continuing upwards. It’s so hard to predict. However, with all of the evidence we have so far I’m going to guess it’s another solid step forward which will raise her floor and more consistently put her in the top 40. That means more points and a few more opportunities to get to the top 20 this season.

Ella Halvarsson (25)

After being named to the week 1 World Cup roster, sharp shooting Ella Halvarsson actually has a good argument to make to stick on the World Cup long term. Last season she finished 10th on the IBU Cup, a nice leap up from 26th the season prior. She had six top 10’s and four top 5’s in 19 races including the 2nd IBU Cup podium of her career when she finished 3rd in the Idre Fjaell Sprint.

As noted above Ella Halvarsson is a very good shooter. Last season she hit 87.5% with a 93.6% prone hit rate compared to just 81.4% standing. That’s more or less the same as she has been hitting the last three consecutive seasons. The only thing holding her back from being one of the best shooters on the IBU Cup, or the World Cup for that matter, is that standing shooting. Interestingly, while her prone improved last season, her standing declined almost exactly the same amount to keep her total shooting percentage within 1% year over year.

Similarly her skiing seems to be plateaued at the moment. She consistently finishes between teens and 30’s in course time rank. Her average finish in that perspective has been between 26.7 and 31.8 each of the last three seasons showing minimal movement on way or the other. To be clear she isn’t slow. It’s just about finding a way to improve just a little bit more in that respect.

Ella Halvarsson already has shooting that is good enough for her to be on the World Cup. And it would be great if the standing shooting would cooperate and improve just like her prone shooting! For her to take the next step and grab a spot on the World Cup team for the full season, though, it’s going to be all about getting that ski speed to start getting a little bit faster again. However, she is now on the Swedish “A” team which means that she is training in camp with the Oebergs, Gestblom, and Magnusson. In theory being up against them every day might help her finally break through in that respect. If Halvarsson is able to do that then the Swedish coaches will be in the enviable position of having too many World Cup quality women.

World Cup/IBU Cup: Well those will be the six to start the season. Presumably when Linn Gestblom returns one of those women will drop back to the IBU Cup. The other IBU Cup starters for the Swedish team will be:
– Annie Lindh
– Elsa Brandt
– Emma Nilsson
– Johanna Skottheim
– Johanna Nordqvist
– Nicolina Lindqvist

Johanna Skottheim (30)

This is our first opportunity to talk about what I think is a cool new thing the Swedish team is doing. They’ve added a new team to their national squad called Team Ostersund. This is specifically for Swedish biathletes who have had good results in the past but just missed the cut for the national squad. These are all veterans and all have competed on at least the IBU Cup level in the past. They are called Team Ostersund because they will be training there with a coach from the national team. They will get training opportunities to train with and compete against the national team. They are also all going to continue to compete this season. I think this is a really good idea for them.

Over the last nearly 10 years of biathlon Johanna Skottheim has competed primarily on the IBU Cup. In most of those seasons, though, she has gotten at least a couple of races including racing full time on the World Cup in the 2020-2021 season during which she finished 41st in the Overall rankings. Skottheim stats indicate that she is a classic “in between” biathlete. While on the IBU Cup she can regularly finish top 20 in skiing. However on the World Cup she ends up usually ranking between the 30-50’s. Her shooting has been up and down throughout here career ranging anywhere between the upper 80’s down to the upper 70’s.

For most any nation that would be enough to slot in as a regular on the World Cup. This, though, is a fantastically stacked roster. When she is on her game she can compete and get into the top 30 on a regular basis on the World Cup. On the IBU Cup she can be very good with her Overall finishes regularly in the top 30 and up as high as 13th and 6th earlier in her career. She’s got experience and that may lead to her getting a mid season call up if needed. I’m just glad that Team Ostersund exists and gives her a chance to continue to train and compete on such a talented roster.

Annie Lindh (27)

Our second member of Team Oestersund is Annie Lindh. Unlike Johanna Skottheim she has much much less experience. Last year, at age 26, was the first time that she raced a full complete season races on the IBU. Last year she raced 21 times on the IBU Cup and finished with an Overall ranking of 24th. It was, not surprisingly, the best finish in the IBU rankings in her career. Interestingly it came a year after not racing at all.

In her first full season Lindh didn’t do anything too spectacular, she was just steady and solid. She finished 42nd on the IBU Cup in skiing and had an average course time rank of 25.8, which was easily the best of her career. For just the 2nd time in her career she finished faster than average, coming in 2% faster than the median biathlete. Looking race by race she actually was pretty consistent. Her shooting, meanwhile, was okay. She hit at a 76.1% rate which was the 3rd best of her career, but her prior better efforts came in much less racing. She hit 71% prone and 81.3% standing. That prone/standing split is about in line with her normal career splits. Her average shooting time was 35.2 seconds which, more than likely, shows her not having been racing for a little bit.

Lindh more than earned another full season on the IBU Cup. As long as she is looking decently in the preseason she should give it a full run on the IBU Cup. She’s still just 27 so there is definitely reason to believe that she can continue to improve. She showed significant ski improvements last season. Hopefully she can do that again and maybe, hopefully, pair it with some improved prone shooting and faster shooting times. If she can there is a good chance she can make a run at a top 20 finish on the IBU Cup Overall!

Emma Nilsson (30)

Continuing our look at Team Oestersund we have Emma Nilsson, the 30 year old veteran for Team Sweden. Like Skottheim she has seen intermittent time on both the World Cup and IBU Cup levels with exactly 68 solo races on both levels. The peak of her results in her career was about five years ago now as she finished 11th on the IBU Cup in the 2019-2020 schedule and 58th on the World Cup in the 2018-2019 seasons. Last year she ran just six races on the IBU Cup after racing 12 times in the 22-23 season and 15 races across both levels in the 21-22 seasons.

In the six races she ran last season Nilsson wasn’t terrible, she just wasn’t great. She had two top 20’s, five top 30’s and her worst finish of the season was 36th. Her skiing was about the same level that it has always been outside of her career year in the 2019-2020 season Her average course time rank was 25 which was roughly in line with the last few seasons and her speed compared to the median biathlete is right around her career average. Meanwhile her shooting has remained rock steady over the last five years. Each of those seasons she has hit between 83.3% to 85.2% with roughly even prone/standing splits. The only big red flag in her performance is that she still is one of the slower shooters. As everybody is shooting faster and faster she averaged just 37.5 seconds per shoot last season.

Emma Nilsson will do with Team Oestersund. It gives her the opportunity to keep training at a high level and be ready for the opportunities that will be available to her. At this time it looks like most of those will continue to be on the IBU Cup. However, with this form she is still more than capable of racing for the top 20 if not top 10’s.

Nicolina Lindqvist (27)

Nicolina Lindqvist falls into a bit of the same category as Felicia. She’s certainly not bad. She just hasn’t performed at a level that demands continued racing especially on a team as full of high end talent as the Swedish team. At age 27 she’s run 25 career IBU Cup races. The most she’s run in a season is 11. In the 2023-2024 season she ran just three races during the Idre Fjaell weekend on the IBU Cup in which she finished 47th, 52nd, and 29th.

It was only three races but for the second in Nicolina Lindqvist’s career she hit better than 80% of her shots including 100% prone. Of course you can’t extrapolate three races to an entire season but we’re in the business of being optimistic here! Unfortunately she saw her average course time rank fall from 31 to 49.7.

The story here is the same as Felicia Lindqvist. For Nicolina to get more consistent run she is going to have to grab her opportunities. It will take shooting like she did last season and running like she did in the 2022-2023 season. Even then it might not be enough, but she has to put it all together like she hasn’t been able to do before. Fortunately she has the opportunity to continue training with Team Oestersund to keep in the best shape possible to get ready for those opportunities.

Elsa Brandt (19)

19 year old Elsa Brandt is just beginning her IBU Career as she ran in her first Juniors races last season. She raced the three Juniors Worlds races and finished 35th, 18th, and 43rd. She ran decently well on the skis with her course time ranks of 26, 15, and 31 and she hit between 70-80% in each of her races. She’s got a spot on the Juniors team. Can’t get too much from those three races but hopefully we’ll see a bit more racing from her this season!

Johanna Nordqvist (24)

She has only run IBU races in her career and those were Juniors races in the 2018-2019 season. Not much to examine there. We’ll see what we get in just a week!

IBU Cup: The women listed below will likely spend the majority of the season fighting for opportunities ont he IBU Cup. With the talented depth of this team it would take either exceptional performance or injuries for them to see a call up all the way to the World Cup. But never say never!

Tilda Johansson (25)

I could not be more proud of Tilda Johansson stepping away for a mental health leave last season. She was coming off of a tremendous 2022-2023 season in which she took home the BU Cup Overall title. I think sometimes that season is a little more remembered for Gilonne Guigonnat’s furious comeback to nearly steal the title. However, Johansson was spectacular for the majority of the season and was a true champion. Up through her first 15 races of the season she appeared untouchable with 11 top 10’s, five podiums, a win, and a spectacular run at the European Championships where she finished 5th in the Individual before winning silver in both Sprint and Pursuit. That was all without even racing in Osrblie!

Then, with just two weeks left in the season she got COVID and didn’t even know if she could race the final weeks of the season. She fought like hell and pulled out just enough at the end to win the Overall title. With that Overall title she earned the right to start on the first two weeks of the 2023-2024 season. She didn’t look terrible finishing those four of those five races betwee 27th and 42nd. After the New Year she ran two more races before on January 9th announcing an end to her season stating that she was taking an indefinite leave.

Thankfully this summer we’ve seen encouraging signs that she was enjoying training and competing again. When she’s at her best she was an exceptional skier. She was a top 10 IBU Cup skier and rarely finished outside that top 10 until the end of the season. She combined that with shooting that was decent enough, usually in the mid to low 80’s, and took that all the way to an IBU Cup Overall title. WHo knows what we’ll see from Johansson this season, but the point is that we’ll get to see her. Hopefully she’s able to come out and give us a great season of racing. If she’s at her peak we know she can be worth of a World Cup spot so she gets a spot on the list.

Anna Hedstrom (27)

Another 27 year old Swede, Anna Hedstrom is also a member of Team Oestersund. Last season was her 2nd best season on the IBU Cup as she finished 44th Overall, behind only a 37th finish in the 2019-2020 season. These two are by far and away her best finishes in the Overall rankings. Seems to be correlated that those are also the seasons in which she had the most racing. Those were her only two seasons racing more than 10 times. That of course makes sense, in a crowded roster, if better you’re going to keep getting more opportunities.

In general, throughout her career, Hedstrom has been a pretty good skier. Last year she ended up finishing 27th in the ski rankings for the IBU Cup and had an average course time rank of 18th. She’s normally faster than the average IBU Cup biathlete, but last year she was on average 3.3% faster than median, the best of her career by a significant margin, and was just 3.1% slower than median top 10 biathlete, also the best of her career.

The thing holding her back has been her shooting. The best shooting of her career was the 2019-2020 season when she shot 67.6%. Last year she was a little south of that hitting 63.5% and she hit just 50% of her prone shots along with 70% of her standing shooting. Pair that with an average shooting time of 34.2 seconds and it becomes a bit difficult to overcome.

It doesn’t take an expert to see what has been putting a ceiling on her performances. It’s the shooting. Even on her best ski day last season, the Ridnaun-Val Ridanna Mass 60 when she finished 9th in course time rank, she had 9 misses and finished 41st. It is clear that an improvement in shooting would raise her ceiling immensely. Hitting 10% better would give that good skiing more of an opportunity to shine. I will definitely be rooting for it!

Bente Skale (23)

Taking a respite from Team Oestersund for a moment we have Bente Skale, a member of the developmental team building and working towards the “A” team. This is a young team for those that show potential for eventually making the top levels of the sport and they actually do a fair amount of training alongside the “A” team as well. Bente Skale is one of the older members of the team. Not that she’s old mind you as she is only 23. It’s just that most of the other members of the team are still in the Juniors while Skale has graduated out of that level.

So what have we seen from Skale so far? Nothing but slow and steady progress. While the very special finishes have thus far eluded her, in her three seasons of racing Skale has shown a definitive move in a positive direction. During those three seasons she has run 5-6 races on the IBU Cup each season and she has moved up each year. After not scoring any points in the 21-22 season she finished 99th in the Overall in 22-23 and then 83rd last season. Her average finish has improved from 81 in her rookies season up to 34.2 last season.

Looking at her statistics most of that improvement has come with her shooting. Her total hit rate has gone from 74.3% to 78.6% and then all the way up to 86.7% last season including 88.9% prone. She has moved from just okay to actually pretty good. It will be really interesting to see if she’s able to improve just a little bit more or if that 85-87% range is her ceiling. She clearly has the aptitude for it though. Her skiing continues to come along as well. Her average course time rank improved from 81 her rookie season up to 38.8 in 22-23 but regressed just a bit last year.

The Swedish team clearly things that Bente Skale has a future with the team and as she has shown with her shooting she can improve significantly in a short period of time. That shooting percentage puts her in a good position and any little bit better she can get is a bonus. It’s time for that skiing to follow along now. She’s training with some very good young women and the additional time training alongside the “A” team will give her every opportunity to get faster. What I want to see from her this season is really twofold. One, I want to see her racing more. I would love to see a full IBU Cup season just to get all of that experience. I would also, of course, like to see her just a touch faster. If she can do both of those things it’s a success regardless of the results.

Felicia Lindqvist (29)

Now we come to Team Lindqvist (Felicia first and then Nicolina). After racing on the IBU Cup with consistent starts from the 17-18 season through the 19-20, Felicia has seen her opportunities drop with her only full season of IBU Cup racing since then being her 18 starts in the 22-23 season. Last year she was down to just three races, which came in the Sjusjoen weekend of racing, i which she finished 37th, 35th, and 22nd. This season she is a part of the newly formed Team Oestersund.

Felicia Lindqvist is a little bit of the jack of all trades but master of none. She’s not really “bad” at anything, but she also doesn’t demand consistent starts with overwhelming performance. She usually a good but not great skier, usually ranking in the upper middle of the pack at the end of the season in ski ranks and with course time ranks usually in the 20-30’s. Her shooting is decent finishing all of her seasons except for two with a hit rate in the low to mid 80’s or upper 70’s. Her average shooting times hover in the 30-32 second range every season.

Felicia Lindqvist is certainly not a “bad” biathlete. She is the type of biathlete that the sport depends on. Athletes who go out there and compete like heck. Maybe they aren’t flashy and aren’t regularly being celebrated in flower ceremonies. But they keep working and get back out there for the next race. In a squad like the Swedish team fighting for IBU Cup starts can be a difficult thing but that appears to be her fate. When she gets her opportunity she’ll need to put up some good results right away and demand to keep her spot.

Up and Comers and Juniors: The Swedish team has a wide number of young athletes listed on their roster. Some of them have no history of IBU level races so for them, considering I have no data to go off of right now, I’ll just let you know who they are and you can watch them succeed this season!

Elsa Tanglander (17)

The even younger Elsa, Elsa Tanglander, actually has an extra season of IBU races vs the elder Elsa. She has run the Youth Worlds each of the last two seasons and each season has come away with fantastic finishes. In the 2022-2023 Youth Worlds she was 5th, 4th, and 13th. This past year in Otepaa she was 41st in the Individual and 11th in the Mass 60 and the won the gold in the Sprint!

Tanglander, at least so far, has shown to be one of the fastest of her cohort of young biathlete women. The worst course time rank of her career was 14th. Otherwise she’s been top 6 in course time in each of those races. She shoots very well as well. Except for one bad day each Worlds, where she hit 50%, she’s been between 80-90% the rest of the races.

No reason not to be excited for Tanglander at this stage of the game. So far she’s shown excellent performances, and the ski potential is tremendous. I can’t wait to see what comes from her this season!

Greta Lindkvist Seldahl (19)

Greta Lindkvist Seldahl is another Junior Swedish woman that has run just a few races. Last season’s Youth Worlds were the first three races of her IBU level career as she finished 59th in the Individual followed by 29th in the Sprint and Mass 60. She’s shown decent skiing with her course time ranks in those three races being 24, 25, and 22. You can see the key to her performance in the shooting. She shot 60% in the Individual, which led to the 59th place finish. She then shot 90% and 85% in the Sprint and Mass 60 when she got those two top 30’s. If she can shoot consistently like she did those last two races, and improve that ski speed a bit, then the 2023-2024 season could bring some good Juniors finishes!

Ida Ericksson (19)

Ida Eriksson, the 19 year old and not the 42 year old, made her IBU debut running Youth Worlds last season. She finished 52nd, 55th, and 25th. Her skiing and shooting the first two races weren’t great. But when she had her better race in the Mass 60 she was 28th in course time rank and shot 90%. As always, can’t make extrapolations from three races, but I’m curious to see what we get from more racing.

The following athletes are listed on the team rosters for the Swedish Team but haven’t yet run any IBU races (at least that I found).

Ida Backen (19)

The only international results that I was able to find were the 2023 Youth Olympic Games in Forni Avoltri. She finished 50th in the Individual and 44th in the Sprint. In the individual she had a very rough shooting day with 10 misses while she went 7/10 in the Sprint. Hopefully we see some good racing out of her this year!

Nilla Gronborg (17)

17 year old Nilla Gronborg, similar to Ida Backen, only has results from Youth Olympics, but these were the 2024 Games in Gangwon. In these races Gronborg was 58th in the Sprint and 79th in the Individual. Gronborg had a bit of a rough go with the rifle in those games which put a damper on her racing. Hopefully the 24-25 season shows some new accuracy and she has some good races!

Astrid Karlstedt (19)

Another member of the 2023 Youth Olympic Games team, Astrid Karlstedt finished 27th in the Individual and 46th in the Sprint. She had a much better shooting day in the Individual hitting 16/20 and then she hit 7/10 in the Sprint. It will be fun to watch her race whereve and whenever she does this season!

The following women have yet to make the International racing debut for Team Sweden (at least as far as I could find) but they have earned spots on various national teams. Let’s keep an eye on them and root for some good racing!

Hanna Lidstrom
Ida Bergfors (19)
Kalle Helgesson
Klara Satter
Lydia Hagg Eveby
Tuva Li Nilsson (18)

Men: The Swedish men may not be in contention for the Nations Cup title, but they should be able to provide some fireworks. Sebastian Samuelsson can win pretty much any race he lines up for. Martin Ponsiluoma is as fast as nearly anybody in biathlon. Jesper Nelin has had a late career surge and turned into a very solid biathlete finishing 14th and 12th the last two seasons. They are coming off a World Championship relay effort and will be looking to defend their crown. I would say there is plenty to be optimistic about for the Swedish men!

Coaches:
– Head Coach: Johannes Lukas
– National Shooting Coach: Jean-Marc Chabloz and Johan Hagstrom

Quota: 6 Athletes to Start

World Class: Just like with the women, there are two absolute world class biathletes on the Swedish men’s team. Both of these men can win several times per season and will definitely compete for podiums all year long. They have each finished in the top 10 of the Overall rankings and will be in competition for another top finish this season!

Sebastian Samuelsson (27)

I’m not sure if 27 feels to or old or too young for Sebastian Samuelsson. A part of me still thinks he’s 23 but also we’ve been watching him race for so man years now that he seems like he should be at least 30.

In many ways Samuelsson has gotten a bit of an unfair reputation the last few seasons. For so many years the pressure has been on him to be the “Next Thing” and to challenge for the Overall Crown. He’s fallen into a bit of a pattern where he starts out fast (pun intended) and then fades. He’s had some amazing and great success including finishing 3rd in the Overall in the 2021-2022 season and a terrific 2023 Worlds in Oberhof where he won Sprint and Individual bronze and closed with a monumental Mass Start gold.

The pressure on Samuelsson has been to somehow find even more success. It seems like, fair or not, the only way for him to reach that is to win the Overall. With it being the middle of the reign of Johannes Thingnes Boe, that’s a nearly impossible mountain to climb. Every off season in the interviews he says the right thing about how they are going to be able to finally defeat the Norwegian machine. A part of me wonders if a part of it is a little tongue-in-cheek at this point. He comes into the season and looks amazing for at least 2-3 weeks before he can’t quite keep it up anymore. The last two seasons have been particularly hard as he finished 14th and 9th Overall.

Sebastian Samuelsson remains one of the fastest men on the World Cup. He finished last year ranked 5th fastest man, exactly where he was in 2022-2023 and two spots lower than 2021-2022. At his best he can smoke the rest of the field on the skis save for about 2-3 men. At the beginning of last season he was just on a different level from anybody else and there just aren’t that many men who can do that. He shoots decently well too. He hist 83.5% last season and it was actually a significant step back from the 86.7% the year prior. The shooting speed is getting better too.

	Prone %	Standing %	Total %	Shooting Time
2017-2018	85.2	85.2	85.2	29.8
2018-2019	83.6	76.4	80	30.6
2019-2020	84.2	77.5	80.8	27.8
2020-2021	88.6	85.7	87.1	28.6
2021-2022	86.8	81.1	83.9	29
2022-2023	91.5	81.8	86.7	28.3
2023-2024	86.5	80.5	83.5	26.4

Is this the year that Samuelsson finally wins the Overall? Any year that JT Boe is competing that’s really not something that should be predicted. However, we know that Samuelsson has the talent to do it. For him its going to be about not having as many highs and lows in the season. Maybe instead of having a couple of really high peaks he can have a more smooth high plateau? But who am I to give him advice? Samuelsson remains one of the best in the sport and I have no doubt that he’s going to go out there and give it everything he has.

Martin Ponsiluoma (29)

Believe it or not Ponsiluoma has a top 10 Overall biathlete for three of the last four seasons. To be fair two of those seasons he just snuck in there right at #10 in the overall, but that’s a nice little run that he’s on right now. The 2022-2023 season, which to this point is his career year, he finished with the 2nd win of his career and 6 podiums which equaled his entire career output to that date. While last season he didn’t have any podiums, and of course no wins, he actually gained on more top 10 than he did the year prior, 14 in 23-24 to 13 in 22-23.

We all know Ponsiluoma’s game. He’s one of the fastest skiers in biathlon finishing 2nd in skiing in 22-23 and 3rd in 23-24. That just beat out his teammate and renown speedster Samuelsson. We also all the know the fly in the ointment is the shooting. He’s only broken 80% on the World Cup twice and he hasn’t done it even once since the 2018-2019 season. That doesn’t stop him from shooting fast though as he averaged 26.7 seconds per shoot last season.

	Prone %	Standing %	Total %	Shooting Time
2017-2018	74.3	91.4	82.9	27.2
2018-2019	82	86	84	27.8
2019-2020	69.1	78.2	73.6	28.4
2020-2021	77.1	81.9	79.5	27.3
2021-2022	75.6	72.8	74.2	28.3
2022-2023	78.6	80	79.3	26.1
2023-2024	77.1	80	78.6	26.7

We don’t need to belabor this point. Martin Ponsiluoma is one of the fastest men in the game. Every time he shows up to race, that speed alone puts him on the short list of those who could win. It’s all about how many of his targets he can knock down. In his career he has run 133 solo races. In those 133 races he has hit 100% just five times. He’s hit more than 90% just eight times. Of those just four are in the last 4 years when he has had this top notch speed. In each of those he’s been top five and four of the are top two finishes. If he hits he’s right there. As long as he is this fast he has a chance to be a top 10 Overall biathlete and there is no reason to see that changing this season.

World Cup: Along with the two World Class athletes at the top of this list, the Swedish team will be looking for four additional men to round out the roster. Obviously they need to look for whoever has the ability to perform the best on the top level. However, they also need to look for at least a 4th man (to go with Jesper Nelin) who can at the very least not hurt them on the relay. We saw what can happen when they won gold at Worlds. So finding a man who can help just get them to the final 2 legs of the relay while still in the mix is a main part of the goal as well. With that said, here is the Swedish men’s World Cup roster to start the season:
– Sebastian Samuelsson
– Martin Ponsiluoma
– Jesper Nelin
– Viktor Brandt
– Malte Stefansson
– Anton Ivarsson

Jesper Nelin (32)

Jesper Nelin stands alone as the rare lock for the World Cup team that isn’t named Sebastian Samuelsson or Martin Ponsiluoma. Nelin usually gets overlooked since he spent most of his career finishing in the middle of the field in the Overall rankings. However, the last two years have been the most successful of his career as he finished 15th in 2022-2023 and 23rd last season.

It’s been a really neat mid/late career renaissance for Nelin. Since turning 30 he’s had the best skiing and the best shooting of his career. Sometimes biathlon is pretty simple. If you ski at the best level of your life, and have the most accurate shooting of your life, you’re going to have your best performances. It’s pretty amazing to see that 7-10 point bump in the shooting percentages over the last two seasons.

	Prone %	Standing %	Total %	Shooting Time
2017-2018	83.9	74.6	79.2	27.9
2018-2019	86.4	71.2	78.8	29.7
2019-2020	89.2	67.7	78.5	28.9
2020-2021	78.4	69.7	74.1	30.7
2021-2022	81.6	70.4	76	31.5
2022-2023	90.5	79.5	85	30.8
2023-2024	86.3	80.6	83.4	29.5

Jesper Nelin occupies a very important part of the roster. Of course he’s turned himself into a very good biathlete and that’s awesome! He’s just 32 but I’m very hopeful to see another top 15-25 Overall season from him! In terms of the Swedish team, though, what he’s been able to do is give them a solid 3rd leg in addition to Sebbe and Ponsi. The Swedish men’s relay team has had relative struggles of late. The 2021-2022 season was a bit of a mess for them as they had just one podium finish in the last weekend of the season and many finishes outside the top 5. However, in the last two seasons the floor performance has significantly raised. The average finish is 4.75 and it includes three podiums and a World Championship. Now as opposed to having two “weak legs” of the relay Nelin has become a more solid member and it gives the relay team so many more opportunities to find the podium.

Viktor Brandt (24)

Looking for fourth and fifth men for the roster, Viktor Brandt likely has the inside track to one of those spots. Last season he was brought up to the World Cup for the Oberhof week of racing and just never left. He wasn’t stunningly spectacular, but he was steady and solid. He collected six top 40 finishes including a career best 24th in the World Championship Sprint which he matched two weeks later in the Oslo Individual. His biggest race though was the lead off leg for the World Championships relay. He had just two extra rounds and his steady start put the Swedes in position for Nelin, Ponsi, and Samuelsson to bring home the gold.

While we usually think of the Swedes as blazing fast skiers, Viktor Brandt just isn’t that. He’s actually a pretty good shooter already. Last year he hit 84.1% including 91.8% prone shooting. While that was the best shooting of his career it has been a steady upward trajectory. It’s hard to improve on 91.8% prone shooting, but imagine if he can improve on his 76.5% standing shooting. His skiing ranked more in the middle of the pack.

Hard to believe, though, that this is actually a big improvement for him. A few seasons ago on the Juniors he actually was slower then the median Junior biathlete. Last season he was just 1.8% slower than the median World Cup biathlete. That’s actually a really good leap. It’s actually pretty rare for an athlete from a major nation like Sweden to be slower than average on the Juniors level. This really is a significant improvement.

Looking at the big picture Viktor Brandt has been showing steady improvement year over year. And it hasn’t always been little bits either, rather some pretty big chunks. Assuming he’s healthy and hasn’t shown any regressions it looks like Viktor Brandt should, more than likely, be on the World Cup roster this season. If he is able to keep up the path he’s on then not only might be be on the World Cup roster but he might be looking at several top 20’s this season and a finish well above last season’s 62nd Overall.

Anton Ivarsson (23)

If Sweden is looking to go younger with the World Cup roster Anton Ivarsson may be the way they choose to go. He’s just 23 years old and last season made the first seven World Cup starts of his career. While it wasn’t loaded with success as he had just two top 50’s it was a start! On the IBU Cup he ran 10 more races with two top 10’s and four top 20’s on the way to finishing 35th Overall in about 1/2 of the season’s races.

In his World Cup racing Ivarsson didn’t show anything spectacular, but he wasn’t horrible either. His average course time rank was 63rd and he hit 83% of his shots, with even splits, and had an average shooting time of 28.9. For a 23 year old that’s not bad. Sure it doesn’t point to a future as being a contender for the Overall title, but if we’re looking for a solid World Cup athlete that will be able to compete for many years and fill out the relay roster, then this is not a bad start at all.

Looking at his IBU Cup racing there is even more reason for hope. He ranked 26th in skiing on the IBU Cup which doesn’t indicate that he’s going to be one of the fastest men on the World Cup, but it does point to him having decent ceiling. Maybe not this season, but eventually we could see him running in the top 30 of the ski rankings there. Meanwhile his shooting on the IBU Cup last season, in a slightly larger sample size than his World Cup racing, was 86%. All of that means I’m actually pretty optimistic about what we might see from Ivarsson in the next few seasons! Maybe he won’t be there full time this year but I have a suspicion that we’re going to see more and more of him in the coming years. Again, not everybody is going to be running for the Overall top 10, and if they’re looking for a solid relay addition then Ivarsson could be it.

Malte Stefansson (24)

After he ran a full season on the World Cup in the 2021-2022 season, even though he didn’t have a ton of success, it was easy to think that Stefansson would be a staple on the World Cup. However, he only ran seven races there in the 22-23 season and just four last year. In his 30 total World Cup races he has a single top 30 finish and six top 40’s. Back on the IBU Cup where he has spent the majority of his time he finished 29th Overall in the 22-23 season and 27th last season.

Over the last two years on the IBU Cup he has shown consistently good ski speed. He had an average course time rank of 7th two years ago, and while last year that number dropped to 18 it was actually better than it looked. He had a short period in the middle of the season affected by illness. Outside of that he was consistently top 10-15 including being the fastest man in the Ridnaun-Van Ridanna Mass 60.

It’s been the shooting that has held Stefansson back the last few seasons, and likely has kept him from seeing the same consistent World Cup time he did in the 21-22 season. After peaking with a hit rate of 76% he’s slid backward. Last year he hit just 72.1%.

Stefansson is still quite young so there is ample opportunity for him to find his shooting aptitude. The ski potential is there and he can keep building on that. Ponsiluoma has shown that you can go a long way with excellent skiing and middling shooting. While Stefansson hasn’t shown quite Ponsiluoma level skiing there is a road forward for him, with continued improvement, to regain his footing and find himself back on the World Cup.

IBU Cup: The following men have an outside chance at seeing some World Cup time. However, they are going to have to perform well early and often to really grab the attention. None of them start the season on the “A” team. The thing is, though, if you race well enough you can force you way to the top. And the expanded national teams including Team Oestersund allows more opportunities as well. Here is the IBU Cup team at least to start the year:
– Jacob Larsson
– Knut Vikstroem
– Melker Nordgren
– Oscar Andersson
– Oskar Ohsson
– Victor Berglund

Jacob Larsson (20)

20 year old Jacob Larsson has primarily run on the Juniors, running Youth/Junior Worlds for each of the last three seasons. Last season, though, he made his first starts on the IBU Cup. In those five races he did set a career best finish of 24th. His Youth/Junior Worlds performances haven’t been exceptional. His best was 19th in the 2022 Pursuit.

Jacob Larsson, in general, runs better than he shoots. On both levels of racing the best he’s ever shot in his career is 80%. He has gotten as high as the top 10 in course time rank at the Junior Worlds, though.

I would imagine that we’ll see a similar pattern for Jacob Larsson this year. He’ll probably race Junior Worlds. Otherwise he’ll hopefully get 1-2 weekends on the IBU Cup as well. We’ll see what he can accomplish this season!

Oscar Andersson (22)

When looking at Oscar Andersson’s career history it’s one of the more curious profiles we’ve seen. He made his debut in the 2020-2021 season on the IBU Cup. Yes he was only 18, but the only Juniors events that season were held at the Junior Worlds so there were a few more teenagers racing in IBU Cup events that season. That season he went to Youth Worlds and finished 7th, 4th, and the won bronze in the Pursuit. He returned to the IBU Cup in the 21-22 season where his finishes were scattered wildly from 28th to 94th and then went to Junior Worlds were he ran just one race, finishing 19th in the Individual. Since then he’s just run Junior Worlds the last two seasons where his best finish was 11th in the Individual last year.

The best skiing in his career was at the 2021 Youth Worlds when he was running top 25 in course time rank. Since then he’s been in the back half of the field on the IBU Cup. To be fair he’s in his early early 20’s so that’s not a surprise. At Junior Worlds his course time ranks are all 34th and 41st in every race but one. His shooting has been wildly up and down without any pattern emerging at all. The only pattern in his shooting is he has moved towards a faster shooter. At the Junior Worlds last season his shooting time ranks in those three races were 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

Long story short, I have no idea what to expect from Oscar Andersson. He has an unusual history thus far and it’s hard to figured out what to expect. There hasn’t been a real pattern or trajectory in his performance. So here’s to hoping that we see some positive movement this coming season!

Melker Nordgren (21)

21 year old Melder Nordgren has run a grand total of two races in his IBU career. He raced at Junior Worlds last season and finished 68th in the Individual and 53rd in the Sprint. He was in the back half of the field in skiing, he hit 70% and 80% in shooting, and he was a slower shooter. He performed well enough in Idre Fjaell so I guess we’ll see what we can get out of him this season!

Oskar Ohlsson (26)

After a return to IBU racing at the end of last season, Oskar Ohlsson will at least start the year on the IBU Cup for the Team Sweden. Ohlsson ran just three races last season, all of which came in Idre Fjaell in which he finished 32nd, 14th, and 24th. It’s been a long road back for Ohlsson as prior to that his last races were all the way back in the 2019-2020 season. During that time he has fought back problems and other injuries. It’s remarkable that he’s continued to fight throughout this fallow period. I cannot tell you how much I love seeing somebody fight like this. Clearly this is all about love of biathlon. That’s all I need to know about him to know that I’ll be cheering for him this season!

Knut Vikstroem (23)

Knut Vikstroem last ran an IBU level race in 2019 at the Youth Worlds. That was just a little bit ago. More recently at Idre Fjaell in the selection races he finished 11th in the Sprint and I can’t see that he ran in the Short Individual. He hit 9/10 in that race and skied reasonably well. We shall see what he can do when the season gest underway back in Idre Fjaell next week!

Victor Berglund (21)

The 21 year old Victor Berglund will start the season on the IBU Cup after running just three prior IBU level races. He raced at the 2021 Junior Worlds where he finished 29th, 30th, and 32nd. It was three full seasons ago now when he was just 18 years old so it’s not worth looking at these races too closely. His two races in Idre Fjaell couldn’t have been more different. In the Short Individual he skied very well but had six misses and finished 9th. Then in the Sprint he hit 9/10 but was much slower and finished 25th. I have no idea what to make of that! Hopefully he can put those two things together!

Emil Nykvist (27)

A little older than the other men on this list, Emil Nykvist is far from old. The 27 year old has occasionally filled in on the World Cup including running 12 races on the top circuit in the 2022-2023 season. That season peaked with a 27th place Sprint in Pokljuka, a career best finish that he matched last season in the Oberhof Pursuit. Both events were the fourth race weekend of the year so maybe there is something about that weekend that he particularly likes? Last season, in addition to Oberhof, Nykvist raced in Ruhpolding and Antholz. Otherwise he was on the IBU Cup where he ran ten races and found three top 10’s and finished 31st in the Overall.

Nykvist has more of the build of a Viktor Brandt. He doesn’t possess the ski speed of so much of the Swedish team, but he makes up for it with his shooting. Last year he ranked 29th overall in skiing on the IBU Cup including an average course time rank of 28th. The last two seasons show definitive improvement in that regard. His shooting though, has been his strength. Last season he hit 88% on the IBU Cup including 86.7% prone and 89.3% standing.

Nykvist’s path to the World Cup primarily relies on a continuation of his good shooting. Hitting the targets at a nearly 90% clip puts a solid floor for the performance and makes you more of a reliable bet for relays. That may actually be his path towards consistent run. However, for him to find greater success he needs the skiing to take another leap. There was significant improvement from 2021-2022 season, but that progression stalled last year. If wee see another step up in skiing that will be accompanied by a bit more of Nykvist on the IBU Cup.

Henning Sjokvist (26)

To this stage in his career Hennig Sjokvist has raced just a single career World Cup race. That will likely be the case this season as well, as many of the men ahead of him on this list have a better look at the team this year. However, on the IBU Cup he’s been advancing steadily. Over the last three seasons he’s seen his Overall ranking improve from 73rd in the 2021-2022 season to 22nd last year. Part of last year’s improvement in the Overall was that he was able to stick on the team from week 1 through the end. However, that wasn’t just by chance, it was because he showed improvement and earned the chance.

Last season Henning shot 85.8% overall. That got him up to 12th Overall amongst IBU Cup men who raced at least a full trimester. Not bad at all. He has improved his shooting from 78.1% two years ago. He’s also brought his skiing from a little worse than median to a little better than average. If he can keep the progress going he’s going to be able to find himself in the top 20 of the IBU Cup. If he can make an even more substantial improvement he might be able to find himself on the World Cup for a weekend or two. He’s shown the right trajectory, hopefully he can keep it going!

Erik Larsson (22)

Speaking of men who are showing consistent improvement, Erik Larsson has been on the rise for each of the last few seasons. Still a Junior in those years, he’s spent much more time racing the IBU Cup than he has the Juniors, only racing at Youth/Junior Worlds the last few seasons. However, while the Overall rank hasn’t shown it yet, the improvement is visible.

In that time period his average course time rank has improved from 40 to 38 to 21. His shooting percentage has improved from poor, averaging 45.7% in the 21-22 season, up to a mediocre 66.4%. The good news is that his prone shooting is actually all the way up to 85.5%. The standing shooting still has a little ways to improve as he hit 47.3% last season which was the best of his career.

Erik Larsson has some pretty clear holes in his biathlon performance. However, he’s showing significant improvement over the last few seasons. How much more can he improve? Well that remains to be seen, but he still has plenty of room to grow.

Alfred Eriksson (23)

In the 2022-2023 seasons he ran several weeks on the IBU Cup and competed in the last Junior Worlds that he would. Almost all of his finishes were in the 40’s and 50’s along with a single top 40 of 18th. Junior Worlds he finished 80th, 54th, and 42nd. While it wasn’t a spectacular season, he certainly was hoping that the 23-24 season was going to be a bit busier for him with more consistent IBU Cup racing. However, it wasn’t as he ran just three races last season finishing 55th, 78th, and 61st in the races in Kontiolahti and Obertilliach.

Eriksson has struggled with his shooting in his career. At his best he has been shooting in the mid 70’s. However, he also has had several seasons where he failed to break 60% for the year. The one bright spot recently has been his skiing. There has been some improvement over the last few years in his skiing. His average course time rank has improved to 34.3 last season as he was 1.1% faster than the median biathlete. Looking for bright spots here and that qualifies!

Hopefully this season we will see a few more races from Ericksson with continued ski and shooting improvements!

Up and Comers and Juniors: The Swedish team has a wide number of young athletes listed on their roster. Some of them have no history of IBU level races so for them, considering I have no data to go off of right now, I’ll just let you know who they are and you can watch them succeed this season!

Martin Hoiby (19)

Martin Hoiby made his IBU level racing debut last season at the Youth World Championships with finishes of 12th in the Individual, 17th in the Sprint and 21st in the Mass 60. As always it’s just three races, but it was overall pretty good racing. He finished between 10-20 in the course time ranks every race and he shot 80%, 90%, and 75% in the three races. Not bad! Let’s see what we find this season!

Anton Modigs (18)

Just like Hoiby and Nordgren, Anton Modigs made his IBU debut last season as he raced the Youth World Championships. In the three races he finished 24th in the Individual, 54th in the Sprint and 36th in the Mass 60. Modigs used a 90% shooting day to race to the 24th place finish in the Individual, while he used his best skiing of the championships to score the 36th in the Mass 60. Just like with Hoiby and Nordgren we’ll hope to see some more racing this season and get a better picture of what kind of biathlete he can be.

Olla Gedda (17)

Young Olla Gedda’s only major international racing occurred at the 2024 Youth Olympic Games in Gangwon where he ran the Individual and the Sprint. The shooting was a little shaky. He hit 10/20 on the Individual and 3/10 in the Sprint. Ultimately that severely limited his ability to have high finishes and he came in 58th in the Individual and 63 in the Sprints. Hopefully that was just a few bad days!

Thjin Omblets (17)

Thjin Omblets, just three years younger than Olla Gedda, also competed at the 2024 Youth Olympic Games in Gangwon. He finished 61st in the Individual and 82nd in the Sprint. His shooting was a little better in the Individual than Gedda as he hit 14/20. However, he also hit just 3/10 in the Sprint. Same hope with Omblets that the shooting and skiing will look better this season and beyond!

Viktor Vestman (19)

Competing for the first time on the IBU level in 2023-2024 season, Viktor Vestman made his debut at the Junior Worlds. In those races he finished 45th in the Individual, 60th in the Sprint, and 59th in the Mass 60. He did actually shoot decently hitting 90% in two of those races, but the skiing wasn’t exceptional as his best course time rank of the week was 58th in the Mass 60. Let’s see what 2024-2025 has in store for him!

Henning Lindh Ten Berg (19)

The 2nd Henning on this list, Lindh Ten Berg actually last raced in the 2022-2023 season at Youth Worlds. He actually had a decent race too. He ran 42nd in the Individual, 13th in the Sprint and 33rd in the Pursuit. His skiing was okay but not spectacular. He shot 70% in the Individual, 90% in the Sprint, and 55% in the Pursuit. However, he put it all together very well in the Sprint with his best ski day, finishing 23rd in course time rank, and hitting 90% and nearly cracking the top 10. He remains on the roster and we’ll see what he can do if he races this season.

Simon Akerlind

Should he make his debut this season it will be the first IBU level racing of his career.