IBU Cup 1st Trimester Recap

This season I’m trying to at least keep an eye on the IBU Cup. The World Cup is the big event but the IBU Cup is still fun to follow! There are so many good stories going on every week. There are young athletes getting experience and working their way to the big show. There are athletes making breakthroughs that lead to them to the World Cup. There are veterans that are back on the IBU Cup either to find their form again or because there is just too much freaking talent on their teams. The result is some pretty dang good racing!

Every week on the weekly recaps I’m going little IBU Cup updates but I wanted to have a big IBU Cup update so that we can catch up on the big stories from that circuit in the first trimester. First of all just a quick reminder of where we are in the schedule:

Week 1: Idre Fjall, Sweden November 28 – December 1 (Completed)
Week 2: Geilo, Norway December 4 – December 7 (Completed)
Week 3: Obertilliach, Austria December 19 – December 22 (Completed)

Week 4: Arber, Germany January 9 – January 12
Week 5: Brezno-Osrblie, Slovakia January 15 – January 18

Week 6: IBU European Championships Martell-Val Martello, Italy January 29 – February 2

Week 7: Ridnaun-Val Ridanna, Italy February 5 – February 8
Week 8: Otepaa, Estonia March 6 – March 9
Week 9: Otepaa, Estonia March 12 – March 15

So with three of the nine weeks completed what are the major storylines so far in the IBU Cup? I’m going to try to hit these in six spots just like a Flower Ceremony

1)Women’s Overall

Athlete	Current Score
Paula Botet (Now on WC)	531
Camille Bened	443
Chloe Chevalier (Retired)	377
Siri Skar	308
Marlene Fichtner	296
Johanna Skottheim	255
Ragnhild Femsteinevik	245
Marit Ishol Skogan	243
Ida Lien (Now on World Cup)	239
Sophia Schneider (Now on World Cup)	237

Winning the IBU Cup does come along with an added benefit which is giving the winning athlete’s federation an extra bib for the first two weeks of the following season. It previously went to the athlete and not the federation. It’s definitely worth arguing who should receive the benefit but that’s for a different time!

As you can see already four of the women who are currently in the top 10 of the Overall are not currently racing on the IBU Cup. Sadly Chloe Chevalier retired, while Paula Botet, Ida Lien, and Sophia Schneider are up on the World Cup. Johanna Skottheim is racing on the World Cup in Oberhof but it looks like that will just be a single week. Right now that puts Camille Bened out front of those who are racing on the IBU Cup and by a fairly wide margin. With how she is racing (more below) she should have a leg up on the race to the IBU Cup Overall and France looks to once again have seven bibs to start the 2025-2026 season.

2) Men’s Overall

Athlete	Current Score
Johan-Olav Botn	574
Isak Frey	535
Martin Uldal (Now on World Cup)	422
Sverre Dahlen Aspenes	372
Roman Rees	351
Sivert Guttorm Bakken	340
Lucas Fratzscher	326
Simon Kaiser (Now on World Cup)	286
Oscar Lombardot	234
Gaetan Paturel	222

It is of course no surprise to see Norwegian men all over the top of the Men’s Overall. This is just becoming a yearly thing as the Norwegian men are stacked with talent. This year there actually is a little turn over on the World Cup roster. Also, Mats Oeverby, last season’s IBU Cup Overall Champion, has only raced three races on the IBU Cup this season with a season’s best of 9th. And STILL the Norwegians have the top four and five of the top six at the end of the first trimester. Special mention of Gaetan Paturel sneaking into the top 10!

3) 🇳🇴 Norwegian Men Dominant – As noted directly above the Norwegian men have been absolutely dominant this season. It just never stops. This is looking like the third consecutive year of at least four Norwegians in the top five of the IBU Cup Overall. That’s even with Mats Oeverby not really competing on the IBU Cup so far this season. Here are just a few stats so far:

• Out of eight races Norwegian men have won all eight of them this includes wins by:
  – Isak Frey: 3 wins
  – Martin Uldal: 2 wins
  – Sverre Dahlen Aspenes: 1 win
  – Johannes Dale-Skjevdal: 1 win
  – Johan-Olav Botn: 1 win
• Out of 24 possible podium positions Norwegians have won 22 of them:
  – Johan-Olav Botn: 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1
  – Martin Uldal: 2, 3, 3, 1, 1
  – Isak Frey: 1, 1, 1, 2
  – Sverre Dahlen Aspenes: 1, 3, 3
  – Johannes Dale-Skjevdal: 1, 3
  – Sivert Guttorm Bakken: 3
• Norwegian men have 27 of 40 top 5 spots

What’s interesting is that we still think of this crop of Norwegians as the “young Norwegians.” Of this bunch though only Isak Frey (21 years old) and Martin Uldal (23 years old) are truly young men. The men on the World Cup are by and large just too good and have not been giving up their spots.

This appears to be changing though. Johannes Dale-Skjevdal had a not great start to the season in Kontiolahti. It may have been related to a back injury, but regardless of the cause, Martin Uldal received his spot and has grabbed control of it. It doesn’t look like Uldal is going to let go of it after having a win and three top 5’s in five races, and moving up to 9th in the Overall. Vebjoern Soerum appears solidly in control of his spot on the World Cup as well, so that’s two younger Norwegians who have forced their way to the top.

That still leaves Norway with seven men on the World Cup. After Tarjei Boe’s win in the Annecy-le Grand Bornand Mass Start it appears that Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen or Endre Stroemsheim will be the odd man out from the World Cup. Right now it looks like Christiansen will be losing that battle. However, Stroemsheim has been erratic. Fortunately for him his high note was a win in the Kontiolahti Short Individual. He also has some…not great performances.

The point of that whole side track was that the Norwegian men are dominating the IBU Cup but there still does not appear to be any clear path for these men to get up to the World Cup. Every now and then a spot may open up like when Uldal moved up after Dale-Skjevdal’s injury. When that happens these men have to absolutely grab and own the spot. Otherwise its hard to know when the next opportunity will come. And these men aren’t getting any younger. While I love watching the Norwegians who are on the World Cup, you do feel a little bit who are potentially losing years off of their World Cup careers while dominating the IBU Cup.

4) 🇫🇷 French Women Early Dominance…Will It Continue? – While they haven’t been quite as dominant as the Norwegian men, the French women are certainly running the show on the women’s IBU Cup thus far. They have three of the eight wins and 12 of the 24 total podiums. This has primarily been accomplished by three women thus far:
– Paula Botet: 2 wins and 6 podiums
– Camille Bened: 1 win and 4 podiums
– Chloe Chevalier: 2 podiums

As we start the 2nd trimester the French IBU Cup roster will look a bit different. Will they still continue to collect wins and podiums at the same high rate after they had exactly one half of the podiums and nearly one half of the wins? Already Paula Botet has been elevated to the World Cup and Chloe Chevalier announced her retirement. Will the remaining women continue to dominate?

However, the French still have Camille Bened who should soon be the new IBU Cup Overall leader. The French women also have Gilonne Guigonnat and Sophie Chauveau who have joined the IBU Cup squad after starting the year on the IBU Cup. They join a roster that will regularly include Voldiya Galamce-Paulin as well as occasionally Amanadine Mengin and Anaelle Bondoux. Even without Botet and Chevalier that’s some serious talent. They should continue to rack up the IBU Cup podiums and wins!

5) Rapid Ascents
– 🇩🇪 Simon Kaiser – Simon Kaiser only raced on the IBU Cup for the first in Idre Fjall and Geilo. In those six races he was consistently the top non-Norwegian on the IBU Cup which is really saying something. He finished with six top 10’s in six races before joining the World Cup in Hochfilzen. In his brief time on the IBU Cup he showcased his best skiing of his career with an average ski rank of 5.5 up from a career best 10.6 two seasons ago. In those six races his worst course time rank was 7th. He also 86.7% compared to the best previous season in his career of 73.1% in the 2023-2024 season. Sure feels like he’s going to be on the World Cup for the rest of the season now.

– 🇮🇹 Ilaria Scattolo – Like a comet streaking across the sky Ilaria Scattolo only briefly touched the IBU Cup on her remarkable ascendency. She started her season on the Junior Cup with finishes of 13th, 2nd, and 7th in the season opening weekend in Ridnaun-Val Ridanna. After that great success she was moved right up to the IBU Cup in Obertilliach. She immediately scored a victory in the Sprint, her first IBU Cup race of the season. This was a massive improvement on her previous career best of 38th. To prove it wasn’t a fluke she followed that up with 7th in the Mass 60. It’s been announced that she’ll make her World Cup debut this week in Oberhof. Her improvement was related to a massive improvement in skiing. In her two IBU Cup races her average course time rank was 8 compared to 40th in her prior races. She went from being 1% slower than the median IBU Cup biathlete to 5.1% faster. It also doesn’t hurt that she hit 96.7% in those two races! She saw similar improvement in her Junior Cup racing with a very big ski improvement and a shooting hit rate up to 87.5%. I’m excited to see how her World Cup debut goes! We’ll keep expectations low and hopes high!

– 🇮🇹 Marco Barale – The 21 year old Italian Marco Barale was selected for the IBU Cup right out of the gate. He ran all eight races and had five top 20’s including his first career top 10 in the Obertilliach Mass 60. While he didn’t set a new IBU Cup personal best, which he set with a 6th place finish in the 2022-2023 Pokljuka Short Individual, he did have three of his top four finishes and five of his top eight career finishes this year. Of the men who have run every race on the IBU Cup this season, he actually has the best average finish of any man who is not Norwegian, French or German. His shooting has taken a big time step forward this season as he’s hitting 90% compared to just 76% in each of the last two years. He’s also running 1.5% faster than the median IBU Cup biathlete as opposed to 2.1% slower last season. Barale will be making his World Cup debut in Oberhof!

6) Underdog Athletes Showing Signs
– 🇫🇮 Finnish Athletes – So far this season we’ve seen Suvi Minkkinen having a massive breakthrough on the World Cup. The IBU Cup Finns are having some good success this year too!
– Arttu Heikkinen has run just two races on the IBU Cup and the 20 year old has finishes of 8th and 16th. Those aren’t quite his best finishes of his career but are the 3rd and 9th best finishes of his career. However he has the best skiing in his IBU racing history with ski ranks of 14 and 27. That average of 20.5 is the best of his career. He also is hitting 83.3% which is slightly better than the best of his career. He also had a 39th in the Kontiolahti Sprint.
– Jimi Klemettinen has raced the entire season on the IBU Cup starting with the 2nd Sprint in Idre Fjall. Since that first race, where he finished 49th, he has five consecutive top 25’s each of which would be the best finish in his career. This includes finishes of 13th, 14th, and 15th. The 19 year old is skiing much better this year as his average ski rank has improved from 50th to 24.7. He has improved from 2.4% slower than median up to 3.1% faster than the median biathlete. HUGE improvement. Along with Heikkinen that’s two intriguing young talents
– The young men aren’t alone in impressing. I also want to note that 30 year old Heikki Laitinen currently ranks 12th in the IBU Cup. Laitinen has six top 20’s and two top 10’s Before this year the veteran only had three career top 10’s. His career best IBU Cup ranking is 21 so he’s well on his way to a career season.

– 🇨🇦 Benita Peiffer and Emily Dickson are having terrific seasons for Canada
– Benita Peiffer currently ranks 19th in the IBU Cup Overall standings. Her career best IBU Cup Overall finish is 61st so this is a HUGE showing. The 24 year old Peiffer has five top 20’s in her eight races including a career best 10th in the Geilo Individual.
– Emily Dickson, meanwhile, ranks 30th in the IBU Cup Overall. She had the 2nd best finish in her career, a 12th in the Geilo Individual. She also had a 17th in the 2nd Sprint in Idre Fjall which was her 5th best career finish. Dickson’s career best Overall finish is 66th so she too is on pace for a big time career best.

7) 🇳🇴 Hope For Norwegian Women…or No? – For the most part it has been a season to forget for the Norwegian women on the World Cup. It started with Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold leaving the World Cup due to heart trouble after racing just twice. Karoline Knotten has had three top 10’s and currently sits 15th in the Overall. It’s a step backward from last year but it’s still on pace to be the 2nd best season of her career. Outside of Knotten, though, the Norwegian women have just one top 10 which came from Maren Kirkeeide setting a career best 5th in the Annecy-le Grand Bornand Pursuit. As it sits right now the Norwegian women are 4th in the Nations Cup. That would be their lowest finish in the Nations Cup since 2017-2018.

Are there any reasons to be optimistic based on their performances on the IBU Cup?

– Ida Lien (27 years old) – To be fair Ida Lien was pretty much always just passing through. She didn’t have a great weekend in Sjusjoen for the preseason races. She was fast but just didn’t shoot well. Lien went to the IBU Cup and won two of the first three races of the season in Idre Fjall. Unfortunately then her old back pain acted up in Geilo and her racing suffered. Once healthy, though, she came up to the World Cup for the weekend in Annecy-le Grand Bornand. The ski speed is there. It’s all about shooting.

Siri Skar (21 years old) – Siri Skar has to have the Norwegian fans at least a little excited. She’s just 21 and in the first IBU Cup action of her career but she’s already been the most consistent of any of the regular Norwegian women on that level this season. In eight races she had five finishes in the Flower Ceremony with her worst finish of the season being 22nd. That 22nd is her only finish outside the top 20.

So far it’s been a solid all around season for Siri Skar. Her average ski rank is 10.3 which ranks 10th amongst all women who have run a race on the IBU cup. She is skiing 5.75% faster than the median biathlete and 1.12% slower than the median top 10 both of which rank 11th. Skar is also hitting a very good 87.5% of her shots including 93.3% prone and 81.7% standing. That ranks 20th amongst all women who have raced even a single race. That includes five women ranked above her who have raced just one time each. The only weakness in her biathlon, which is significant, is she is averaging 39.2 seconds per shoot.

I am very excited to see what Skar can do the rest of the way. Just cutting her shooting time down to like 32 seconds per shoot would make a massive difference. That would be 14 seconds in a Sprint and 28 seconds in a Pursuit. That’s huge and relatively low hanging fruit! Let’s see what she can do the rest of this season but right now Skar is on my radar for sure.

Marit Oeygard (25 years old) – Even before Ida Lien made it to the World Cup, Marit Oeygard earned a call up for the racing in Hochfilzen. To be fair that was likely only because Lien had the back difficulties. She had an 84th place finish and returned back to the IBU Cup to race in Obertilliach.

Prior to her call up Oeygard actually only raced one weekend, the races in Geilo. Those races were her IBU Cup debut and it was a magnificent debut! She finished 2nd in the Individual before back to back 5th place finishes in the Sprint and the Pursuit. Her racing in Obertilliach wasn’t quite as scintillating as she finished 30th and 20th in the Sprint and Mass 60.

In her five IBU Cup races she has shot very well hitting 90% of her shots including a perfect 40/40 prone. She does this while averaging 34.2 seconds per shoot. Oeygard’s average course time rank is 22.8 which ranks roughly 30th on the IBU Cup. For comparison that’s just a touch slower than Marlene Fichtner and right about in line with Beatrice Trabucchi. I’m her one World Cup race her course time rank was 76.

At 25 she could certainly develop further. And I have a soft spot for good shooters. So I’ll remain hopeful for Oeygard to follow something like a Karoline Knotten path. However to do so she will need to start showing me something on the skis pretty quickly.

Ragnhild Femsteinevik (29 years old) – Ragnhild Femsteinevik is the type of athlete that the IBU relies on. She’s a good solid biathlete. The perfect example of a biathlete who is good on the IBU Cup and middle of the road on the World Cup. She has four top 10’s this season as well as two 11th place finishes and she sits in 7th in the IBU Cup Overall.

She continues to ski very well with an average course time rank of 6.8 which is perfectly in line with her last two seasons on the IBU Cup. That puts Femsteinevik as the 4th best skier on the IBU Cup this season which considering the level of competition at the top of the IBU Cup is legitimately good! Unfortunately she continues to struggle with her shooting. She’s hitting just 73.3%. That’s just not good enough no matter how you slice it.

Femsteinevik is the consumate professional. She clearly has a ceiling on her performance right now because of her shooting. Could she help out the World Cup team? I don’t know. But her age is a factor and I think the coaching staff would lean towards giving more time to the younger athletes like Siri Skar.

Marit Ishol Skogan (26 years old) – Last season Marit Skogan had a huge moment when she looked very good in Sjusjoen and then had a top 10 in her very first race. The peak of her season was in Lenzerheide last season when she had a 6th and her first and only career podium. After that though she didn’t have a single top 20. This season she has had three top 10’s but no podiums as she ranks 8th in the IBU Cup Overall.

Skogan’s skiing is just okay and she’s only hitting 80%. Right now it continues to look like she had a magical two month stretch at the beginning of the 23-24 season. Since then she’s continued racing at her career average. That means she’s pretty good on the IBU Cup but just not good enough to really do much of anything on the World Cup. She fits into the Ragnhild Femsteinevik model of the type of athlete the IBU depends on. However, where Femsteinevik has the ski speed that gives her a higher ceiling every race, Skogan just doesn’t have that. She has to put it all together to get to the podium.

Karoline Erdal (27 years old) – After racing the first two weeks of the season and having one top 10 but never finishing outside the top 20, Karoline Erdal sat out the final week of the season in Obertilliach. Erdal’s profile is almost exactly like Femsteinevik. Her average course time rank is 10th and she is hitting 73.3% including a very rough 57.8% standing shooting. That’s just…not great. So she has decently high ceiling if she hits her shots because of that ski speed. But when you’re only hitting about half of your standing shots it’s just really hard to be competitive. Unfortunately this is just about where she has been for the last several years. At least this season, barring a significant standing shooting improvement (which could happen!) I don’t see Erdal doing anything but fighting for IBU Cup starts.

Marthe Krakstad Johansen (26 years old) – Last season Marthe Krakstad Johansen got her first real World Cup experience where she had two top 10’s over 11 races. Coming out of the preseason races she didn’t even make it to the IBU Cup roster. She was racing on the AKSO up in Norway until Obertilliach where she finished 15th and 12th. It wasn’t a bad weekend. She was 19th fastest in the Sprint and 4th fastest in the Mass 60 and she hit 25/30 shots. Overall not a bad weekend. I would anticipate we’ll see her get a bit more run on the IBU Cup.

Eline Grue (28 years old) and Mari Torsterinsrud (23 years old) have run a total of five races on the IBU Cup this season and have an average finish of 27.5 and 39.3 respectively.

Are any of these women potential hope for this season or the future for Norway? Siri Skar definitely has potential as she develops over the next few seasons. She’s so young and she’s already a well rounded biathlete with excellent skiing and good shooting. It’s just about getting the shooting speed to catch up as she continues to develop. She may get some World Cup experience this season, but mostly it’s going to be about watching her development. In the next few years though she’s definitely the one to watch for Norway’s future. Other than that maybe Marit Oeygard or Marthe Krakstad Johansen might show something. I would anticipate the Norwegian roster to look something like this for the rest of the year:
– Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold
– Karoline Knotten
– Ida Lien
– Maren Kirkeeide
– Gro Randby
– Rotating amongst whomever is racing well of Juni Arnekleiv, Emilie Kalkenberg, Marit Oeygard, Marthe Krakstad Johansen, Ragnhild Femsteinevik, and Karoline Erdal.