Lenzerheide 2024-2025 World Championships Preview

Schedule:

– Wednesday February 12: Mixed Relay (W+M)
– Friday February 14: Women’s 7.5km Sprint
– Saturday February 15: Men’s 10km Sprint
– Sunday February 16: Women’s 10km Pursuit + Men’s 12.5km Pursuit
– Tuesday February 18: Women’s 15km Individual
– Wednesday February 19: Men’s 20km Individual
– Thursday February 20: Single Mixed Relay (W+M)
– Saturday February 22: Women’s 4x6km Relay + Men’s 4×7.5km Relay
– Sunday February 23: Women’s 12.5km Mass Start + Men’s 15km Mass Start

Course Overview:

The racing takes place at Roland Arena in Lenzerheide with the following listed statistics:
– Stadium altitude: 1393 meters
– Maximum altitude on course: 1444 meters
– Lowest altitude on course: 1389 meters
– Stadium capacity: 6000 spectators

If you select each course below you will see the exact statistics for that course including the actual elevation change for each loop/course and the exact length. The courses are listed in the order in which we will see them:
– 1.5km: Single Mixed Relay
– 2.5km: Women’s 7.5km Sprint + Men’s 12.5km Pursuit + Men’s 4×7.5km Relay + Women’s 12.5km Mass Start
– 3.3km: Men’s 10km Sprint
– 2km: Women’s 10km Pursuit + Mixed Relay + Women’s 4x6km Relay
– 3km: Women’s 15km Individual + Men’s 15km Mass Start
– 4km: Men’s 20km Individual

As we know from seeing Lenzerheide last season we know for sure that this course can be very difficult. There are significant climbs throughout the course but the most difficult is known as Hartweg Hill and is early on each loop. However, if you look at the course profiles you can see that there is a second climb that takes place either mid way or near the end of the loop that can also be significantly difficult. The good news for the athletes, though, is that there is a large downhill towards the end of each lap. There appears to be a very very small rise into the stadium that shouldn’t do much but maybe just put a little cramp into tired legs at the end of a long race.

From studying the courses there are a couple of things that are worth pointing out.

Most courses come in short of the listed distance for the race. For example 5 loops of the “4km course” should in theory be 20km for the Men’s Individual. However, it turns out to be just 19,641m. Those 359m could be crucial for an athlete that is struggling down the stretch! Likely won’t make a big difference for the medals but maybe for a little further down.

I mention the above because one course comes in longer: the 2.5km course. This also happens to be the most used course hosting the Women’s 7.5km Sprint, Men’s 12.5km Pursuit, Men’s 4×7.5km Relay, and Women’s 12.5km Mass Start. On this course:
– The 7.5km course comes out to 7,673m
– The 12.5km course ends up at 12,879. That’s a not inconsequential 379m for the Men’s Pursuit and the Women’s Mass Start! Just something to keep in mind as those races are being run. There is going to be just a little extra room in case the battle comes down to a very close finish!

Weather

The above is the weather as reported by the Swiss weather organization. Unfortunately it only goes through the first weekend of the competition including up through the Pursuit races. This will be updated with their forecast for the remaining races this time next week.

From looking at other weather sources that have a full long range forecast the rest of the week appears to be just fine. All sources indicate that the weather for the second week of competition will be just about the same as the first week with temperatures right around or a little under freezing with a little snow possible towards the second weekend. However, that it is nearly two weeks from now.

News and Notes

By this point the Worlds rosters have long since been established so there is not much in the way of “news and notes.” It’s actually somewhat remarkable that aside from a few noted absences such as Venla Lehtonen and Otto Invenius there has actually been very little in the way of news the last two weeks. Maybe just a few things to keep note of as we think about the upcoming races:

1) Starting Quotas: I’ve provided a screenshot of the rules for World Championship starting quotas above. Absolutely worth a look to remind yourself why some nations have 4, 5, or 6 athletes starting in different races because it’s different than the normal World Cup start quotas.

2) 🇳🇴 JT Boe Trains Alone – As has become his custom of late JT Boe chose not to train with his teammates. Following the final race in Antholz the vast majority of the Norwegian team went to their “home away from home” in Lavaze. This is their preferred location for altitude training where they go most summers and where they have gone to prep for high altitude competitions such as the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.

JT Boe, following his shock retirement announcement in Ruhpolding, decided that he wanted to go home to be with his family. There have been no indications that he had any illness of mishaps while he was there, which was the one thing that Ziggy Mazet and others noted may happen.

JT Boe has never had difficult training on his own and has followed this routine in the past. Previously when he has done it he has come back in roaring form. There is no reason to expect otherwise this time around. However, he didn’t enter this training period in top form. He was sick over the holiday break, he never regained his top form following the illness, and so he starts off on the back foot. There is an equal chance that he comes into Lenzerheide ready to be the best in the world again as well as the chance that he looks roughly like he did in the 2nd trimester: Very good but far from his top form.

3) 🇺🇸 Paul Schommer Celebration – Let’s just take a minute and celebrate Paul Schommer. This man is 32 years old and racing for US Biathlon, which isn’t exactly a lucrative profession. He’s struggled for the last two years with chronic knee pain and injuries and had surgery for repair. It’s been a long hard road back but he never gave up. He raced an abbreviated 22-23 season. He didn’t race at all last year. He returned to racing in the IBU Cup in Arber just last month. Since then he finished 7th in the Brezno Sprint. At the time that was the 2nd best finish of his career. This week he finished 3rd in both the Sprint and the Pursuit which marked the 2nd and 3rd podiums of his IBU Cup career. Now he returns to the top team at the World Championships. Congratulations to Paul Schommer for displaying an admirable level of persistence and all the good luck this week!

Recent History

2023-2024 Lenzerheide Women’s Top 5 Finishers

Athlete	Finishes
Justine Braisaz-Bouchet 🇫🇷	🥇🥇🥇
Elvira Oeberg 🇸🇪	🥈, 5, 5
Julia Simon 🇫🇷	🥈, 4
Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold 🇳🇴	🥈, 5
Hanna Oeberg 🇸🇪	🥉
Franziska Preuss 🇩🇪	4

We only have one prior World Cup at Lenzerheide so not a lot of data points to go off of here. Justine Braisaz-Bouchet was in prime condition when they came through Switzerland last season. Still, she was magnificent as she won each of the three races. Maybe it was just the timing, maybe the course really suits her well with the long downhill into the range giving her plenty of time to rest and get ready for the range. Then she punishes the field on the course. Could also, in theory, be good for Elvira Oeberg who, last we saw in Oberhof and Ruhpolding was incredible before she got sick. Also interesting that Tandrevold had two top 5’s last season in Lenzerheide. Traditionally she has not done well at high altitude but last season she did just fine!

Just go back and look at the top 10’s from the three races last season. It’s packed with the best of the best from last year. It’s a good sign that Lenzerheide does a good job of allowing the cream to rise to the top. Assuming the best women come in good form we could be in for some great racing!

2023-2024 Lenzerheide Men’s Top 5 Finishers

Athlete	Finishes
Johannes Thingnes Boe 🇳🇴	🥇🥇🥈
Sturla Holm Laegreid 🇳🇴	🥉, 4
Martin Ponsiluoma 🇸🇪	4, 4
Endre Stroemsheim 🇳🇴	🥈
Philipp Nawrath 🇩🇪	🥉
Tarjei Boe 🇳🇴	🥉
Philipp Horn 🇩🇪	4
Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen 🇳🇴	5

Not a ton to glean from this. The Norwegians are incredible. No surprise that they were dominant here last year just like they were everywhere. Also no surprise that JT Boe won too of the races.

Women’s Top 5 Finishers Last 5 World Championships

Athlete	Finishes
Hanna Oeberg 🇸🇪	🥇🥇🥇🥈🥈🥉, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5
Julia Simon 🇫🇷	🥇🥇🥇🥉🥉4, 5, 5
Lisa Vittozzi 🇮🇹	🥇🥈🥈🥈🥉, 5, 5, 5
Dorothea Wierer 🇮🇹	🥇🥇🥇🥈, 4
Justine Braisaz-Bouchet 🇫🇷	🥇🥈🥉🥉
Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold 🇳🇴	🥈🥈🥉, 4
Lisa Theresa Hauser 🇦🇹	🥇🥈, 4
Lou Jeanmonnot 🇫🇷	🥉🥉
Sophie Chauveau 🇫🇷	4, 4
Vanessa Voigt 🇩🇪	5, 5
Franziska Preuss 🇩🇪	5, 5
Marketa Davidova 🇨🇿	🥇
Lucie Charvatova 🇨🇿	🥉
Selina Grotian 🇩🇪	4
Samuela Comola 🇮🇹	4
Paulina Batovska-Fialkova 🇸🇰	5
Baiba Bendika 🇱🇻	5

Whenever I look at this list I am always impressed at just how good Hanna Oeberg has been at World Championships. Easily the most top 5’s on a list that includes three Overall Champions and several other excellent athletes.

Men’s Top 5 Finishers Last 5 World Championships

Athlete	Finishes
Johannes Thingnes Boe 🇳🇴	🥇🥇🥇🥇🥇🥇🥇🥇🥈🥈🥈🥈🥉🥉, 5, 5, 5
Quentin Fillon Maillet 🇫🇷	🥈🥈🥉🥉🥉🥉, 4, 4, 4, 5
Tarjei Boe 🇳🇴	🥈🥈🥉, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5
Sturla Holm Laegreid 🇳🇴	🥇🥇🥇🥈🥈🥈🥉, 4
Sebastian Samuelsson 🇸🇪	🥇🥈🥉🥉, 4, 5
Emilien Jacquelin 🇫🇷	🥇🥇🥉🥉, 5
Johannes Dale-Skjevdal 🇳🇴	🥈🥉, 4, 4, 4
Dmytro Pidruchnyi 🇺🇦	🥇, 4, 5
Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen 🇳🇴	🥉🥉, 5
Andrejs Rastorgujevs 🇱🇻	🥈, 4, 5
Martin Ponsiluoma 🇸🇪	🥇🥈
Jakov Fak 🇸🇮	4, 5
Antonin Guigonnat 🇫🇷	🥈
Vladmir Iliev 🇧🇬	🥈
Simon Eder 🇦🇹	4
Eric Perrot 🇫🇷	4
Fabien Claude 🇫🇷	5
Lukas Hofer 🇮🇹	5

It’s of course stunning to see JT Boe as easily the leading man for World Championship Top 5’s over the last five editions. He’s great everywhere. He’s especially great in championships. Also no surprise to see QFM and Laegreid up there as well. Also interesting to see some of the “odd” names that pop up in the Top 5’s at World Championships.

We know that the Swedes like to try to peak for championships be they Worlds or Olympics. Of all of the athletes on these lists the athletes with the biggest positive discrepancy between between championship top 5 percentage and World Cup top 5 percentages are Swedes with Sebastian Samuelsson, Hanna Oeberg, and Martin Ponsiluoma leading the way. It’s only Elvira that messes up the data as she’s had repeated bad luck before Worlds. Her career best in a solo race at Worlds is 8th in last season’s Pursuit in Nove Mesto.

Recent Memorable Moments/Performances (World Championships)

2024 JT Boe: Okay, maybe not quite as good as his 2023 World Championships performance, but JT Boe was absolutely spectacular in Nove Mesto. In solo races he actually did one position better. In 2023 he had three gold medals and a bronze while in 2024 he secured three gold medals and was 3.5 seconds away from a 4th. It was just the relays where the he and his teammates failed to find the same success as in Oberhof. The peak performance for him was once again the Individual. He finished 19/20, the same as his brother who finished in 2nd. He finished a wild 58.9 seconds faster, or nearly a full penalty. Once again, JT Boe was just on a different plane than anybody else in the field.

2024 Men’s Sprint: The one solo race that JT Boe didn’t win was the Sprint. He was 9/10 and seemingly fast enough to win. JT Boe was in bib 26 and as he finished he was definitely the fastest man. As the rest of the top men continued through they were either not near fast enough or missing too much to be competitive.

Then came Sturla Holm Laegreid who, sporting the new madshus bindings, went perfect. He left the range for the last lap with just a 7.9 second advantage on JT Boe. With how they had each been skiing it seemed like a near certainty that JT Boe would end up with a faster time. Over the first two laps he was on average 10.5 seconds faster per lap than Laegreid. The gap kept coming down until at the 8.8km split JT Boe’s time was 0.7 seconds faster than Laegreid. Laegreid dug deep and somehow pulled it out. Over the last 1.2km he was 4.2 seconds faster and Sturla Holm Laegreid won his third, and arguably most impressive, World Championship.

2023 JT Bø: I don’t think I’ll ever forget the effort of JT Bø at the 2023 World Championships. He is one of the greatest of all time and was having the greatest season in biathlon history. He won medals in all 7 races including gold medals in the Sprint, Pursuit, Individual, Mixed Relay, and Single Mixed. 

2023 Men’s Individual: This isn’t memorable because it was a close race, it’s memorable because it is one of the most impressive shows of force by a single athlete in a race. JT Bø was on a different planet from anybody else. It was just a year ago so we don’t need to go blow by blow but Bø went 18/20 and won the Individual by 1:10 over Sturla Holm Lægreid who was 19/20. He won by more than a penalty over Lægreid who was an incredibly strong #2 in the Overall that season. He was 1:46 seconds faster on the course than Jeremy Finello was was 2nd fastest. That was the same gap as between Finello and Adam Vaclavik who was 13th fastest. It was the peak performance of the greatest season we may ever see in biathlon. 

2023 Women’s Sprint: In the farewell campaign for Denise Herrman-Wick she got one last crack at Worlds in front of her home fans in Oberhof. In the race she had the best chance at winning a medal she won gold by a slim 2.2 seconds over Hanna Öberg. The fans were wild and her teammates celebrated like wild. Even from a few thousand miles away you could feel how happy everybody was for her!

2021 Women’s Relay: I will be honest, this one slipped my mind until I went back and looked at the results. That made me go back and watch it. Norway ended up winning but this was a seriously tight race. Behind Tandrevold and Eckhoff they had a 25 second lead at the 2nd exchange. While Ida Lien held onto the lead, by the time Røiseland took the course the lead was down to just nine seconds over Belarus with Poland (!?!) only one more second back. Røiseland hit the course hard but after needing all three extra rounds on the prone shooting she left the range in a tie with Olena Bilosiuk of Ukraine with Germany, Belarus, and Sweden were all within 26 seconds. Røiseland needed just one extra round to leave the range with a solid lead that she would carry to the finish. Behind her though Preuss was 11.5 back with Bilosiuk +13.3 and Kruchynkina +17.9. In the end Preuss would just hold off Bilosiuk for 2nd with Ukraine coming home with the bronze medal. Whenever you have a relay with four teams fighting for three positions after an hour of racing, especially at Worlds, that’s a hell of a race.

2020 Women’s Sprint: This race may be remembered as the second of Marte Olsbu Røiseland’s seven medals at the Antholz and her first solo medal of those Championships. The whole Championships was an absolutely majestic performance for Røiseland as she made a massive effort towards cementing her place in biathlon history. However, for me it was Susan Dunklee that made this a race that I’ll never forget. As an American we don’t get many of these moments. We interviewed Clare Egan this past summer for the podcast and she identified this as one of, if not the best moment of her career. It’s just something that’s hard to explain. Perfect 10/10 shooting and she finishes just 6.8 seconds away from gold. Thank you Susan Dunklee and the whole group that made that performance possible!

2020 Men’s Pursuit: All you need to know about this race was the last lap. Coming in for the last shooting Alexandr Loginov, coming off a gold in the Sprint, led the field. JT Bø and Jacquelin were 13 seconds back (that’s some power!) with Fourcade at +21. So while Loginov held the lead the chasers were exceptional. It was a wild last shoot. Loginov and Jacquelin shot in 20 seconds, JT Bø in 22, and Fourcade in 26. Jacquelin and Bø went clean while Loginov and Fourcade each had a miss. While Fourcade fell out of the race for the podium Loginov was just 8 seconds back. If Jacquelin and Bø played games he was still there to pounce. That wasn’t going to happen though ad Loginov immediately fell back off the pace. Every time JT Bø tried to make him hurt Jacquelin had the answer. In the end the race came down to a final sprint and who came out on top? Emilien Jacquelin.