Well here we are, the final trimester of the 2024-2025 World Cup season. It feels like it was just the other week and I was frantically typing out the team previews. Now as we sit here days away from the first races in Nové Město na Moravě we have just seven more individual races that count towards the Overall competition. How can it be?
It’s unfortunate that we haven’t had quite as many women competing in the Overall this year as we did last season. Lisa Vittozzi was never able to race. Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold suffered a heart scare early in the season and has never found her footing since then. Meanwhile possible contenders including Justine Braisaz-Bouchet and Lena Häcki-Gross just haven’t had the same level as consistently this year as last year.
Don’t take that to mean this hasn’t been a thrilling Overall race though! As we sit here today the Overall race has come down primarily to two women with a couple more with extreme outside chances. Really it’s a race between Franziska Preuss and Lou Jeanmonnot. Both women were definitely on anybody’s preseason contenders list. Elvira Öberg has also shown some excellent racing and would have been a part of this Overall race if not for missing out in Antholz while Jeanmonnot and Preuss pulled away. Meanwhile Julia Simon has stayed just at the edges of contention but was just never consistently strong enough to get herself all the way to the top of the standings.
(March 4, 2025 update: Elvira Öberg will miss the racing in Nové Město. After consideration I’m leaving her in here as she and Julia Simon serve primarily to show just how far ahead Jeanmonnot and Preuss are)
| Athlete | Current Score (Points Back) |
| Franziska Preuss 🇩🇪 | 879 |
| Lou Jeanmonnot 🇫🇷 | 787 (-92) |
| Elvira Öberg 🇸🇪 | 571 (-308) |
| Julia Simon 🇫🇷 | 530 (-349) |
| Jeanne Richard 🇫🇷 | 526 (-353) |
| Oceane Michelon 🇫🇷 | 495 (-384) |
| Selina Grotian 🇩🇪 | 482 (-397) |
| Suvi Minkkinen 🇫🇮 | 459 (-420) |
| Justine Braisaz-Bouchet 🇫🇷 | 426 (-453) |
| Maren Kirkeeide 🇳🇴 | 379 (-500) |
We’ve had some fun athletes reach the top 5 as well! Suvi Minkkinen surging up as high as 4th in the Overall before her poor showing in the Antholz Sprint, and subsequent absence from the Pursuit, caused her to drop down to 8th. Jeanne Richard, Oceane Michelon, and Selina Grotian have shown incredible form and while running in a very tight u23 Globe race, separated by just 44 points, they also currently hold positions 5 through 7 in the Overall.
The Extreme Outsider Contenders
Let’s be honest, these two women really aren’t in the mix for contention for the Overall. The number of points per race that they have to make up is simply staggering and even with their immense talent they aren’t going to be able to do it unless Preuss and Jeanmonnot both either have a complete collapse in form or miss entire weekends of racing. Including them puts into context how far ahead Preuss and Jeanmonnot are though.
🇫🇷 Julia Simon
| Statistic | Current Rank |
| Overall Rank/Points | 4th / 530 (-349) |
| Points Per Race Needed to Make Up | 50 |
| Average Finish | 13.1 (39.3pts/race) |
| Podium Percentage | 21.4% |
| Overall Ski Rank | 12th |
| Back from Median | -2.93% |
| Shooting Percentages | 84.7%/79.3%/82% (49th) |
| Shooting Speed | 23.9 seconds (1st) |
🇸🇪 Elvira Öberg
| Statistic | Current Rank |
| Overall Rank/Points | 3rd / 571 (-308) |
| Points Per Race Needed to Make Up | 44 |
| Average Finish | 9.6 (47.8pts/race) |
| Podium Percentage | 41.7% |
| Overall Ski Rank | 2nd |
| Back from Median | -4.97% |
| Shooting Percentages | 85.9%/85.9%/85.9% (29th) |
| Shooting Speed | 29.2 seconds (39th) |
It’s not hard to see that both Simon and Elvira have a wildly difficult hill to climb. Technically achievable, making up 50 points per race would require More or less getting a top 2 in every race from here on out while Preuss and Jenmonnot both finishing outside the top 10 in every race or, better yet from the perspective of Simon and Öberg’s Overall chances, not racing at all. Again, they are included her primarily just as a point of comparison and to put in perspective how far ahead Jeanmonnot and Preuss are.
The Contenders
🇫🇷 Lou Jeanmonnot
| Statistic | Current Rank |
| Overall Rank/Points | 2nd / 787 (-92) |
| Points Per Race Needed to Make Up | 13.1 |
| Average Finish | 7.6 (55.4pts/race) |
| Podium Percentage | 42.9% |
| Overall Ski Rank | 4th |
| Back from Median | -4.06% |
| Shooting Percentages | 94%/88%/91% (8th) |
| Shooting Speed | 29.5 seconds (41st) |
How does Jeanonnot win? Well basically she replicates what happened in the 2nd trimester. During that stretch Lou Jeanmonnot looked like a dominant force who was establishing hersels as the premier talent in women’s biathlon. Here’s a reminder of how the two leaders fared in in the races of Oberhof, Ruhpolding, and Antholz:
- Jeanmonnot: 7, 1, 1, 9, 1, 1
- Preuss: 28, 20, 2, 2, 3, 3
As a result of those races Jeanmonnot gained 435 points whiel Preuss earned 314 for a difference of +121 points for Jeanmonnot. Jeanmonnot gained 20 points per race on Puress in the that stretch. Should Jeanmonnot continue on that pace she would overtake Preuss after the Oslo Sprint and go on to win by 49 points in the Overall.
During the 2nd trimester Jeannmonnot raised her level showing the following statistics:
– Avg finish: 3.33
– Avg course time rank: 3.83
– Hit rate: 95%
– Avg shoot time: 31.6 seconds. That was raised by an aberrant 42 sec avg shooting time in the Oberhof Sprint. Remove that and it comes down to 29.3 seconds
So, how does Jeanmonnot win? Assuming no change in form by Franziska Preuss Jeanmonnot will need to replicate her performance from the 2nd trimester that saw her average a 3rd place finish. Obviously her course was a little bit different as it included four wins and four finishes lower in the top 10.
Even that may not be enough. In order for Jeanmonnot to gain those 121 points on Preuss it required Preuss to have by FAR her worst week of the season with the 28th and 20th place finishes in Oberhof. If that had been closer to her norms for the season, say 10th place in each race, then Jeanmonnot would have gained only 93 points on Preuss. What’s the current deficit on Preuss? 92 points. Long story short, this is likely to be a VERY close race in the end.
🇩🇪 Franziska Preuss
| Statistic | Current Rank |
| Overall Rank/Points | 1st / 879 |
| Points Per Race Needed to Make Up | N/A |
| Average Finish | 5.5 (62pts/race) |
| Podium Percentage | 71.4% |
| Overall Ski Rank | 8th |
| Back from Median | -3.44% |
| Shooting Percentages | 96.7%/88%/92.3% (4th) |
| Shooting Speed | 27.1 seconds (18th) |
How does Franziska Preuss win the Overall? By continuing to do exactly what she has done every single week outside of the off week in Oberhof. Remove that odd weekend, where she has never performed well, and Preuss has a season’s worst finish of 5th and has 10 podium finishes in 12 races. At that rate she would finish the season with 6 more podiums in the last 7 races which would make it virtually impossible for Jeanmonnot to steal the Globe barring an absurd string of wins.
Franziska Preuss’ key success this season hasn’t been flashy. It hasn’t been by piling up wins. In fact her two wins this season is well behind the six of Jeanmonnot. Preuss has gotten herself into this lead with relentless excellence. Seemingly every race she is in the top 10 in course time. Nearly every race she is hitting 90% or better. She’s not a blazing fast shooter but she’s fast enough. And she is just tirelessly consistent as she repeats this over, and over, and over again.
We discussed above that Jeanmonnot’s biggest impediment to winning the Globe is simply the presence of Franziska Preuss. However, the biggest potential roadblock to Preuss winning the Globe is also Preuss. For several seasons now Preuss has been one of the most unlucky biathletes we have. Seemingly every season she has been struck by an untimely injury of illness. While that threatened to derail her season in le Grand Bornand, she was able to fight through it and actually come away with one of the most memorable wins of the season in the Pursuit. Will she be able to continue staying away from the injury/illness bug? That’s the big question.
The other thing that makes me a little nervous for Preuss’ chances in direct comparison to Jeanmonnot is the weather. At least two of the last three weeks promise to have warmer conditions with wet and heavy snow in Nove Mesto na Morave and Oslo. In the past this has been difficult for the German ski techs to get right while the French have been very good. If the German ski techs aren’t on top of their game it could put Preuss in difficulty and make her job even that more difficult.
Final Thoughts
This promises to be an incredibly tight and exciting race all the way down to the final finish line in Oslo. Every race we’ll be tallying up the difference between Jeanmonnot and Preuss to see how much the gap closed or widened by. Every race Jeanmonnot fails to gain at least 13 points on Preuss her job gets a little more difficult. Every race Preuss gains any points on Jeanmonnot she can breathe a little bit easier.
Preuss has the advantage in consistency. Jeanmonnot has the advantage in peak performance. Who ultimately wins? Well that answer is easy, us the fans! Who wins the Globe? We’ll just have to let them battle it out!