Oslo-Holmenkollen 2024-2025 Preview

And so it has come. The final weekend of the 2024-2025 season is already here. I feel like it was just the other week that I was up late at night researching teams for the preseason previews. It seems like just the other day that the first trimester was over and we thought we knew what was going on this season. I swear that the World Championships just ended last weekend. It has all gone by way too quickly. But here we are, the final weekend of the year. Also the final races in the careers of some of our best and most beloved biathletes. Let’s see what the week holds for us!

Schedule:

– Friday March 21: Men’s 10km Sprint + Women’s 7.5km Sprint
– Saturday March 22: Men’s 12.5km Pursuit + Women’s 10km Pursuit
– Sunday March 23: Women’s 12.5km Mass Start + Men’s 15km Mass Start

Course Overview

-Stadium altitude: 325 meters
– Highest Altitude on Course: 370 meter
– Lowest Altitude on the Course 315 meters
– Stadium capacity: 6,500 spectators
– Course capacity: 11,500 spectators

In the above pictures you see the courses and profiles for in order:

• 2.5km loop: Women’s Sprint + Men’s Pursuit + Women’s Mass Start
• 3.3km loop: Men’s Sprint
• 2km loop: Women’s Pursuit
• 3km loop: Men’s Mass Start

Oslo Holmenkolen is one of the great spectacles in biathlon. The view of athletes skiing by with ski jump in the background always gets me. The camera crews always do a fantastic job in framing their images. It’s magnificent. The rest of the course, interestingly enough, fades from view. There are no dramatic steep climbs that separate the wheat from the chafe. It is also notable for traditionally having an easier shooting range. Of the regular World Cup stops it regularly ranks as one of the three best shooting ranges.

Weather

This looks pretty good! Above freezing during the day, right around or a little under freezing at night. Minimal breeze. If I had my preference I would want to have the temperature about 2-3 degrees cooler but I’ll take it just like this. Should be pretty straight forward for the wax techs. I am hoping that with conditions like this we don’t see any dramatic difference in ski prep. Hopefully that leads to great racing all around.

Globe Updates!

Overall

Athlete	Score
Franziska Preuss	1048
Lou Jeanmonnot	1028 (-20)

This race is the most difficult to predict. I have no idea what will happen. If I had to guess I think Jeanmonnot finishes a bit higher in the Sprint than Preuss and likely takes Yellow that day or is pretty close. She will start with an advantage in the Pursuit. Then it comes down to who can go 19/20 or better. Equal liklihood in my opinion. I would probably give Jeanmonnot the slight edge in the Overall. I think her advantage in ski speed, which isn’t as big as it looks but is pretty good, will allow her the ability to overcome a miss in the 4 shoot races against Preuss. That gives her just a little more leeway.

Unfortunately there is also the question of nerves. If anything Jeanmonnot has shown a little bit more nerves than Preuss, but she did nail the Mass Start in Pokljuka. This is going to be a great race!

Athlete	Score
Sturla Holm Laegreid	1071
Johannes Thingnes Boe	967 (-104)

JT Boe isn’t completely out of it, but it’s going to take a herculean weekend. He needs to basically win every race while Laegreid needs to finish 4th or worse. This one is Laegreid’s to lose.

Sprint

Athlete	Score
Franziska Preuss	324
Justine Braisaz-Bouchet	317 (-7)
Lou Jeanmonnot	271 (-53)

Preuss comes into the weekend with a narrow edge in the Sprint Globe. JBB is coming on strong though as she finished 2nd in the Nove Mesto Sprint. Ultimately I think Braisaz-Bouchet takes it home and wins her 2nd discipline globe.

Athlete	Score
Johannes Thingnes Boe	342
Emilien Jacquelin	325 (-17)
Sturla Holm Laegreid	306 (-38)

This is going to be a really fun little battle. I could see any of these three men taking home the Sprint discipline globe. Sentimentally I would like to see JT Boe win another one. However, he is coming off of an illness that sapped some of his strength in Pokljuka. We’ll see whatever he has left in the tank. Hopefully it’s enough for the globe. If not him I hope Jacquelin and Laegreid give us a heck of a show!

Pursuit

Athlete	Score
Lou Jeanmonnot	348
Julia Simon	316 (-32)

Ooh boy this is tasty. Julia Simon is a Pursuit queen and she’s running so well right now. Jeanmonnot is chasing the Overall title and is no slouch in the Pursuit herself. This could be a heck of a battle in the last laps!

Athlete	Score
Johannes Thingnes Boe	355
Sturla Holm Laegreid	340 (-15)

Once again we have JT Boe and Laegreid going head to head. This really depends on how JT Boe looks in the Sprint. If he’s clearly off his game after being sick then it’s Laegreid’s to lose. If JT Boe looks like himself again, I could see him going for broke and taking the Pursuit win and the globe. Let’s have a race boys!

Mass Start

Athlete	Score
Franziska Preuss	265
Elvira Oeberg	224 (-41)
Jeanne Richard	204 (-61)
Lou Jeanmonnot	188 (-77)

Franziska Preuss appears to be in very strong position. Her strongest competitor is Lou Jeanmonnot who is well back. Elvira Oeberg is coming off of illness, and though she won the Mass Start gold medal, she finished 26th in the Pokljuka Mass Start. Richard is a sneaky player. She finished 4th in the Mass Start in Pokljuka and clearly still has the form. If she can win or come in 2nd and Preuss fades late then she could take a shocking globe. Ultimately I believe that Franziska Preuss takes it. Preuss may not win the Overall , and that would be tough for her, at least it looks likely that she can take home a little globe to pair with her World Championship gold medal.

Athlete	Score
Sturla Holm Laegreid	260
Eric Perrot	239 (-21)
Quentin Fillon Maillet	218 (-42)
Tarjei Boe	193 (-67)

If Sturla Holm Laegreid already has the Overall Globe basically wrapped up with a victory over JT Boe, he next has to turn his sights to a man who could challenge him for the Overall in the future. Eric Perrot, after winning the Pokjluka Mass Start, sits just 21 points back. Enjoy because this could be a look at future Oslo Mass Starts. Although in those races, the prize won’t be just the discipline globe, but the Overall.

Women’s Nation’s Cup:

Top 5: These nations are pretty well secure in the top 5 wrapping up 6 starting bibs for the 2025-2026 season.
– 🇫🇷 France 8638
– 🇸🇪 Sweden 7774
– 🇩🇪 Germany 7673
– 🇳🇴 Norway 7572
– 🇨🇭 Switzerland 6661

Positions 6-10: Nations finishing in these positions will secure 5 starting positions for the 2024-2025 season. There is a VERY tight battle for the 10th position.
– 🇮🇹 Italy 6435
– 🇦🇹 Austria 6200
– 🇺🇦 Ukraine 5798
– 🇨🇿 Czechia 5699 (+196)
– 🇫🇮 Finland 5503
– 🇵🇱 Poland 5478 (-25)

Men’s Nations Cup

Top 5: The top 4 nations are pretty well secure in the top 5 wrapping up 6 starting bibs for the 2025-2026 season. However that is a very tight battle for the 5th spot and that crucial extra bib!
– 🇫🇷 France 8606
– 🇳🇴 Norway 8380
– 🇸🇪 Sweden 7496
– 🇩🇪 Germany 7303 (+861)
– 🇨🇭 Switzerland 6442
– 🇮🇹 Italy 6420 (-22)

Positions 6-10: Nations finishing in these positions will secure 5 starting positions for the 2024-2025 season. The lesser of the Italy/Switzerland battle will fall into this category. Just like the women there is a VERY tight battle for the 10th position.
– 🇨🇿 Czechia 6146
– 🇺🇦 Ukraine 6083
– 🇸🇮 Slovenia 6036 (+257)
– 🇫🇮 Finland 5781
– 🇦🇹 Austria 5770 (-11)

News and Notes

1) 🇳🇴 One Last Boedeo – We all knew that this day was coming. There was going to be a day without the Boe brothers. I had a suspicion that it was going to be both of them leaving together one day. I didn’t think it was going to be this season. I truly thought we had one more year! They decided this year was the year to let biathlon go though. As sad as it makes me we get to celebrate one more fantastic weekend with Johannes Thingnes and Tarjei Boe. It’s probably not likely but what a dream it would be for them to both get on the podium this weekend…and what about one more Boedium?!?

2) Expanded Rosters: With the end of the season come some expanded roster spots including up to 2 additional spots for athletes in the top 10 of the IBU Cup Overall and the top Junior Worlds man and woman. Here’s how a few of those are being allocated:

🇳🇴 Norway
– Women: Juni Arnekleiv and Karolin Erdal come up from the IBU Cup
– Men: Isak Frey and Johannes Dale-Skjevdal stay with the World Cup roster from Pokljuka and they will be joined by the Junior Worlds top point earner Kasper Kalkenberg

🇫🇷 France
– Women: Camille Bened, the newly crowned 2024-2025 IBU Cup champion joins the World Cup squad for the first time in her career! She is joined by Paula Botet and 20 year old emerging talent Amandine Mengin who was the top points earner at the Junior Worlds.

3) Retirement Season
– 🇳🇴 JT Boe
– 🇳🇴 Tarjei Boe
– 🇨🇭 Elisa Gasparin
– 🇨🇦 Emma Lunder
– 🇪🇪 Robert Heldna
– 🇫🇷 Chloe Chevalier – effective earlier this season
– 🇫🇷 Caroline Colombo – effective earlier this season
– 🇸🇪 Tilda Johansson – effective earlier this season

4) Until Next Time – For one reason or another several athletes are skipping the final weekend of racing:
– 🇦🇹 Anna Gandler
– 🇸🇪 Ella Halvarsson
– 🇨🇿 Marketa Davidova – after her brief return for the Sprint in Nove Mesto she will remain out the rest of the season. Fortunately we get to see Ilona Plechacova and Heda Mikolasova race this week!

Recent History

Women’s Top 5 Finishers Last 5 Competitions 

Athletes	Finishes
Hanna Oeberg	🥇🥇🥈🥉
Julia Simon	🥈 5, 5
Anastsiya Kuzmina	🥇🥇
Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold	🥇, 4
Franziska Preuss	🥈🥈
Paulina Batovska-Fialkova	🥉🥉
Lisa Theresa Hauser	🥈, 5
Elvira Oeberg	🥈, 5
Justine Braisaz-Bouchet	🥇
Lena Haecki-Gross	🥇
Ida Lien	🥉
Lou Jeanmonnot	🥉
Anna Magnusson	🥉
Tereza Vobovnikova	5

Long story short there is no clear dominant force here. This data goes back to the 2018-2019 season so that’s where you get the good Kuzmina and Batovska-Fialkova performances. Of late the women that seem to do the best here are those who are nearing retirement. Emma Lunder podium incoming? Unlikely. This will be a trend breaking week it seems!

Men’s Podium Finishers Last 5 Competitions 

Athletes	Finishes
Sturla Holm Laegreid	🥇🥇🥇🥈🥉🥉, 5, 5
Johannes Thingnes Boe	🥇🥇🥇🥇🥇🥇, 5
Quentin Fillon Maillet	🥇🥈🥈🥉, 4
Tarjei Boe	🥈🥈, 5
Sebastian Samuelsson	🥉, 4
Emilien Jacquelin	🥉, 5
Fabian Claude	4, 5
Lukas Hofer	🥈
Martin Ponsiluoma	🥈
Niklas Hartweg	🥈
Jesper Nelin	🥉
Eric Perrot	4
Felix Leitner	4
Philipp Nawrath	5

While Johannes Thingnes Boe has a remarkable history of success in front of the Norwegian fans and royalty in the Holmenkollen stadium, it is actually his teammate Sturla Holm Laegreid that has the most success over the last three seasons. Not great if you’re hoping for a JT Boe miracle Overall comeback. In fact Laegreid’s performances here the last few seasons are downright Johannes-like.

Memorable Moments

2023 Women’s Races – The end of the 2022-2023 season in Oslo marked the close to the careers of many prominent women. This included the Overall Globe winning Norwegian duo of Tiril Eckhoff and Marte Olsbu Røiseland. Eckhoff missed the entire 2022-2023 season but didn’t officially retire until Oslo and Røiseland didn’t start racing until the 2nd trimester. They were certainly sent off as heroes. And Røiseland quite nearly went off on top finishing 2nd in the Mass Start.

They were joined that day by other top women including Denise Herrmann-Wick who celebrated the Sprint discipline globe with a victory in the Oslo Sprint and Anais Chevalier-Boucher who capped her career with a 3rd place in the Mass Start.

While there were many other woman who we all celebrated that weekend, including but not limited to Vanessa Hinz and Mari Eder, seeing Røiseland, Herrmann-Wick, and Chevalier-Bouchet saying goodbye with such great finishes will always be a fond memory.

2022 Men’s Pursuit – The Eric Lesser race. At least that’s how I remember it. Lesser announced his retirement a couple of weeks earlier so we knew that this was going to be his last hoorah. Even before that though, going back to the start of the 2nd trimester in Oberhof, the man was on a serious mission. You could tell he decided he was going to leave everything on the tracks. From Oberhof to the end of the season he ran in 12 races and finished top 10 in 9 of them. That included top 5’s in 6 of his last 7 races. Do you know the last time Eric Lesser had a stretch like that in his career? Yep, never. The best racing of his career literally right at the very end.

The capstone to this absolute bonanza of amazing performance was the Pursuit in Oslo. He started out the race in 5th, 40 seconds back of Laegreid after another one of his great races in the Sprint. Standing between him and the victory were of course Laegreid, soon to be Overall Champion Quintin Fillon Maillet, Sebastian Samuelsson, and teammate Benedikt Doll. That is a bunch of heavy hitters right there.

By shoot 1 he had shaved very little time off the lead. After shoot 2 though it was down to 11 seconds as he and Samuelsson were closing in. Another perfect shoot 3 saw him shed Samuelsson and he was 20 seconds back of Laegreid and 18 clear of QFM. Standing on the range for the last shoot he was 30 seconds back of Laegreid but with 14 seconds in hand on QFM he was pretty secure in his position if he hit his targets.

The Laegreid gave him the gift of 2 misses and Lesser sent clean. He flew off the line with 13 seconds on Laegreid and QFM and those boys were never going to see him again. That day proved to be just his 3rd career win on the penultimate race of his career.

2022 Men’s Mass Start – While the first two memories on this list are celebratory this is a little more somber. The 2022 Men’s Mass Start in Oslo marked what may end up being the pinnacle of a short but bright career. Sivert Guttorm Baken ran his first World Cup race when he joined the top level team for the Oberhof weekend of the 2020-2021 season. He started the 2021-2022 season on the World Cup with two top 10’s in the Oestersund Individual and Sprint and seemingly never looked back.

The season was gradually building to a crescendo for him as he seemingly adjusted to the World Cup swimmingly in the 2nd trimester. In Kontiolahti he had two top 10’s in the same weekend for the first time since Oestersund. Then in Otepää his first career podium with a 3rd in the Mass Start.

Finally Oslo was the glorious end. 16th in the Sprint. 7th in the Pursuit. His first career victory in the Mass Start. He went into the last shooting going head to head with two young men, Sturla Holm Laegreid and Sebastian Samuelsson, who somehow felt like grizzled veterans next to him. While they shot faster they also hit the penalty loop while he went clean. Laegreid caught him on the final lap but Bakken out sprinted him to the line for the victory.

That victory pushed Sivert Bakken up to 9th in the Overall and clinched the Mass Start discipline globe. The whole race made if seem like we were at the start of something. His first victory and first discipline globe. Standing on the range next to two highly respected young guns. You could have foreseen a race 5 years down the road where those three were shooting for the Overall Globe.

That was the last time we’ve seen Sivert Bakken in a biathlon race. That Spring/Summed he was affected by a rare heart condition associated with Covid and to a lesser extent be Covid vaccine that can particularly affect young men. He’s just this winter begun training again. The Norwegian national team has to their credit left him on the squad throughout his health struggles. The promise that he showed that season, and particularly that race, is so desperately enticing I can’t help but hold out even the slimmest of hopes that we might yet watch him race in Oslo again.

2022 After Party – It must have been one heck of a party because nearly everybody who attended got Covid. Even the King of Norway! Although presumably he got it elsewhere as it’s hard to believe he was on hand at the party…but I’ve never seen it denied!