Canmore 2023-2024 Preview

So this is it. The last weekend of the 2023-2024 season is upon us and it’s all coming right down to the finish line. How does it go by so quickly? From late November to mid March is 16 weeks. It’s the 16 weeks we love more than any other of the year because it’s the biathlon season. We get nine World Cup Weeks, nine IBU Cup weeks, European Championships, Youth/Junior Championships and the World Championships. All totaled it comes to around 150 races in total. That’s 16 weeks of stories. 150 races of excitement.

How is it possible that we’re already at the end of the season? The Juniors season is complete. The IBU Cup is complete. World Championships have come and gone. All we have left is six more races in Canmore. Two Sprints, two Pursuits, and two Mass Starts. Throughout the course of this weekend we hand out eight small discipline globes and at the end two very large Crystal Globe to the champions of the season. Then we take a breath, collect our thoughts on the season, and start the excruciating process of counting down until next season begins in Kontiolahti.

But before all of that we have six more races…

Schedule:

– Thursday March 14: Women’s 7.5km Sprint
– Friday March 15: Men’s 10km Sprint
– Saturday March 9: Women’s 10km Pursuit + Men’s 12.5km Pursuit
– Sunday March 10: Women’s 12.5km Mass Start + Men’s 15km Mass Start

Course Overview:

– Stadium Altitude: 1407 meters
– Highest Altitude on Course: 1420 meters
– Lowest Altitude on Course: 1364 meters
– Stadium Capacity: 5000 spectators (including me!)
– Course Capacity: 5000 spectators

What should you take away from these course maps? Those are going to be some brutal shoots. Every single profile has an uphill towards the range. Take into account that these are the last races of a very difficult schedule racing at 1400 meters. If the wind blows at all this could be both wildly entertaining for the fans and incredibly challenging for the athletes.

Weather:

As we’ve been looking forward to the racing in Canmore one of the biggest concerns was whether or not the weather would affect the race schedule. The last two times races have been held here (World Cup in 2019 and IBU Cup in 2023) the schedule or racing was affected due to brutally cold weather. That will clearly NOT be the case this week. It’s going to be a very balmy week.

From a racing perspective the French wax techs have been absolutely nailing it with the warmer and sloppier snow. Ever since Nove Mesto they’ve been on a serious roll. I think we should expect to see that once again. In their defense the Norwegians have done as well. This does not favor Vittozzi’s chances though as Italy has struggled in these situations.

On a personal level I am quite happy because I was worried my Florida babies were going to freeze in Canada. This won’t be nearly so bad!

News and Notes:

1) Last Races – The last weekend of the season is always a time to celebrate great biathletes and say goodbye. We already know a few goodbyes that we will be saying. So far Benedikt Doll and Mona Brorsson have announced their impending retirements. Trevor Kiers stepped away from the sport earlier this season. I know we’ll see more as the week does on but I really hope we don’t!

2) No Franziska Preuss – We did have hope we might see her one more time before the end of the season. In her brief time with in 2023-2024 Franziska Preuss was as good as anybody else. In her 15 races she finished in 2nd place three times. She was heartbreakingly close to that win so many times. She only finished outside the top 10 in the World Championship Individual and Mass Start races. Her average finish for this year was 6.4 ranking 2nd behind only Lisa Vittozzi. If Preuss had a full season season she would not only have been one of the best on the World Cup, she would be right in the middle of the Overall race. It’s a dangerous game, but if you extrapolate her average points per race of 49 over a full 18 races she would have 882 points, which is right in line with Justine Braisaz-Bouchet and Lisa Vittozzi. Once again, we are deprived of a peak season of Franziska Preuss. Hopefully she closes her career out healthy from here, but she’s rapidly becoming a classic story of “what if?”

3) Sophie Chauveau Returns! – In case you missed it Chauveau didn’t compete in Soldier Hollow? It wasn’t injury and it wasn’t illness…it was immigration. Sophie Chauveau committed the brutal sin of having visited Cuba on vacation in 2022. Being a French citizen this is completely legal. This, along with a paperwork issue, resulted in her not being cleared by US customs and border control. As an American, this is ridiculous. What are we even doing here? People can visit all sorts of other countries with communist dictatorships without repercussions. As a fan of biathlon, how did the French team miss this? It should have been pretty easy to foresee. All in all this was completely unnecessary.

The Globe Races

Just 3 races left and both Overall races remain undecided. While Tandrevold and JT Bø maintain solid leads, there is still a chance that one of them could slip up in this last weekend!

Just as reminder here are the point distributions for the first 10 places. After that each subsequent place down is 1 additional point down. The only exception to that rule is the Mass Start where it drops by 2 points from position 21-30.

Women’s Overall Race

Athlete	Points/Margin	Points Per Race
Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold	964	–
Lisa Vittozzi	891 (-73)	25pts/race
Justine Braisaz-Bouchet	881 (-83)	28pts/race
Julia Simon	858 (-106)	36pts/race
Lou Jeanmonnot	828 (-136)	46pts/race

In Soldier Hollow Tandrevold had a 2nd and 11th. This meant that while she lost points, the mountain for Vittozzi, Braisaz-Bouchet, and Simon to climb actually got steeper. The pts per race for the woman in 2nd place to close the gap increased from 23 pts/race to 25 pts/race. So even with the standing shooting meltdown by Tandrevold she still maintained a solid hold on the Overall.

However, Tandrevold is just shaky enough in the standing shooting that this race remains wide open. It is just the structure of biathlon that it basically all comes down the Sprint. If Tandrevold has a podium, or maybe even top 5, it’s likely over. That just sets her up so well for the Pursuit that she would have to have an epic meltdown in the Pursuit and the Mass Start. However, if she struggles and finishes say 11th in the Sprint then we are off to the races.

Men’s Overall Race

Athlete	Points/Margin	Points Per Race
JT Bø	992	–
Tarjei Bø	930 (-62)	21pts/race

After the Sprint in Soldier Hollow this looked like it was about to be a sweaty hands, heavy breathing, adrenaline rush straight to the finish. At that point JT Bø had been absolutely hemorrhaging points two straight weeks and the gap closed all the way down to 47. JT Bø was starting in 17th place with Tarjei up in 7th. It was a real chance for Tarjei Bø to put himself within 30 points of the Overall with 3 races to go.

Then of course JT Bø did what JT Bø always does. In his own words he went into his cave and came out as Batman. The Dark Knight rose all the way to 1st and expanded his lead over where it had been the week prior. With 62 points to go I think this is over. JT Bø would have to absolutely collapse or maybe even miss a race.

Women’s u25 Race:

Elvira has won the u25 race for the 3rd year in a row! It’s really an amazing thing when you think about it. Most fans would say that Elvira really didn’t have the season we might have yearned for. Yet she still locked this thing up well in advance of the end of the season.

Men’s u25 Race:

Athlete	Points/Margin	Points Per Race
Tommaso Giacomel	523	–
Eric Perrot	505 (-18)	6pts/race

Once again the Men’s u25 discipline goes to the final weekend of the season with Tommaso Giacomel holding a slim lead. Will he be able to hold off the challenger this season? Last year Niklas Hartweg had an incredible comeback and in the very last race of the season to steal the u25 globe. Eric Perrot is charging hard this season. It would be heartbreak for Giacomel to lose it at the end twice in a row but Perrot looks to be a worthy challenger. This is going to be a fun and tense weekend for these two young men!

Women’s Sprint Discipline Race:

Athlete	Points/Margin
Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold	394
Justine Braisaz-Bouchet	376 (-18)

This race is absolutely fascinating. The last two Sprints that counted were Ruhpolding, won by Tandrevold, and Soldier Hollow, won by Justine Braisaz-Bouchet. If Justine Braisaz-Bouchet wins the Sprint in Canmore she would gain at the very least 15 points on Tandrevold in both the discipline and the Overall race. From that perspective it could be the canary in the coal mine of a Justine Braisaz-Bouchet Overall win. However, if Tandrevold comes in 2nd she wins the Sprint globe and holds off JBB in the Overall. In so many ways, this first race of the weekend likely tells us everything we need to know about how the Overall is going to go.

Men’s Sprint Discipline Race:

Athlete	Points/Margin
Tarjei Bø	324
Sturla Holm Laegreid	302 (-22)
Benedikt Doll	283 (-41)

It looked like this was going to come down to two men nearing the ends of their storied careers with Tarjei Bø leading and Benedikt Doll, winner of two Sprints this season, trying to win his first career discipline globe. Suddenly here comes Laegreid to mix everything up! With the stratified scoring system debuted last year any of these men could come away with the discipline globe. Sentimentally though I’m hoping for Tarjei Bø as there are mounting signs this could be his last season.

Women’s Pursuit Discipline Race:

Athlete	Points/Margin
Julia Simon	334
Lisa Vittozzi	308 (-26)
Lou Jeanmonnot	303 (-31)
Justine Braisaz-Bouchet	297 (-37)
Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold	296 (-38)
Elvira Öberg	270 (-64)
Lena Haecki-Gross	256 (-78)

I included too many athletes on this list but I wanted to emphasize that the top of this list is all of the big names and they could all technically win the Pursuit globe. I would bet on Julia Simon as she specifically singled this out as her goal for the weekend in Canmore and she’s got a solid lead. However with how well Vittozzi and Jeanmonnot are running they could easily make up the ground. How wild would it be if we get the exact same podium from Soldier Hollow with Jeanmonnot (1), Vittozzi (2), and Simon? The result would be Simon winning the globe with a 1 point margin on Jeanmonnot and 11 points on Vittozzi. And that’s not even crazy to think it might happen like that!

Men’s Pursuit Discipline Race:

Athlete	Points/Margin
JT Bø	401
Johannes Dale-Skjevdal	330

This one is all but over. It would take an injury, illness, or an earthquake to keep JT Bø from winning the Pursuit discipline globe.

Women’s Mass Start Discipline Race:

Athlete	Points/Margin
Julia Simon	205
Lena Haecki-Gross	174 (-31)
Lou Jeanmonnot	162 (-43)
Justine Braisaz-Bouchet	152 (-53)

This one is probably over but sentimentally I’m hoping that Lena Haecki-Gross wins the last race of the season and Simon finishes 4th or worse to give Haecki-Gross the globe. This has been such an amazing season for Haecki-Gross that it would be absolutely phenomenal if she could come out of it with some hardware!

Men’s Mass Start Discipline Race:

Athlete	Points/Margin
Johannes Dale-Skjevdal	174
Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen	166 (-8)
JT Bø	162 (-12)
Tarjei Bø	136 (-38)
Bendikt Doll	120 (-54)

Holy cow. This one is going to be changing almost by the minute late in the race. I am foreseeing a moment in lap 3 where I’m going crazy trying to get calculations done. And as soon as I do something changes so they are completely out of date. In the midst of all of this the Overall Globe may still be at stake between JT and Tarjei Bø. I’m just hoping for fun and chaos!