The Norwegian Six

We have a number of important bibs in biathlon. The Yellow bib for the Overall leader. The Red bibs for the leaders of the different disciplines. The Blue bib for the best u25 athletes. Even the unofficial Silver bib given out at the end of the season to the best 33+ athlete. This season though, the most discussed bib isn’t any one of those. It’s a starter’s bib for the Norwegian men’s team.

The Norwegian men are right now one of the deepest, if not the deepest, roster of talent in the history of biathlon. Based on IBU rules the Norwegians are limited to just six men to start each race. If we were to go strictly by merit and not limit it to six the Norwegians may be able to line up 20 men and maybe get half of them qualified for a mass start. While that sounds like absolute histrionic insanity, it really is not. In this exercise we’ll go through each athlete and evaluate and rank their resume and arguments for why they deserve one of the coveted six Norwegian bibs.

The first trimester this argument was neatly kicked down the road. Endre Strømsheim won the IBU Cup and so Norway qualified for seven bibs on the World Cup as long as Strømsheim was one of those bibs. That special prize is granted for two weeks which this season encompassed the Oestersund and Hochfilzen weeks of competition. In theory Norway was limited to bringing only six men to Lenzerheide. However, a quirk in the rules would have allowed them to start all seven in the Mass Start. So while Vebjoern Sørum would have been the odd man out, as he didn’t start the Sprint and subsequently the Pursuit, he was brought to Lenzerheide as he was eligible for the Mass Start. Norway ended up only running six in that race anyway though because Sturla Holm Lægreid was disqualified for accidentally firing a live round as his hotel while trying to dry fire.

Meanwhile, it wasn’t just those seven battling amongst themselves for the precious six bibs. Norwegian men currently occupy five of the top six positions on the IBU Cup standings including a blistering hot start to the season by Johan-Olav Botn.

So now as we head to the second trimester the question remains: Who deserves the six bibs? And who from the first trimester roster is actually at risk? As mentioned above we’ll look at the candidacy of each athlete and rank them into categories by how secure their position is on the World Cup or how good an argument they can make.

1.He’s Not Going Anywhere Until He Says He Is And He Isn’t Going Anywhere: Johannes Thingnes Bø

16.12.2023, Lenzerheide, Switzerland (SUI): Johannes Thingnes Bø (NOR) – IBU World Cup Biathlon, pursuit men, Lenzerheide (SUI). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Manzoni/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age30
Overall Rank 1st
Average Finish6.5
Wins3
Podiums5
Top 10s5
Ski Ranks3rd
Shooting Percentages89.3/83.1/86.2 (Rank = 40)
Shooting Times27.9 seconds (Rank = 43)

Johannes Thingnes Bø stands in a category of his own. Not just because he has four Overall Crystal Globes in his trophy case at home. And it’s not the nine discipline globes. It’s not even because of the 8 Olympic medals and 31 World Championship medals. No, it’s because he’s once again at the top of the Overall rankings having won three of the last four races with the one non-win being a 2nd place finish by just 5.4 seconds. Once again, Johannes Thingnes Bø is the odds on favorite to bring home another Overall Globe. Do we really need to go deeper on this?

Both the eye test and the deeper look at the number indicate that JT Bø is not nearly on the level that he was last season. To be fair, that level led to the greatest season biathlon has ever seen. However, he is still on the 2nd best ski form of his career relative to the median athlete. The difference is that relative to the median top 10 athlete he’s only 1% faster compared to 2% last season. That’s worthy of a MUCH longer discussion though. Also, while hitting 86.3% isn’t quite the 90% of last season or 92.1% from 2019-2020, it’s also the 5th best total hit rate of his career to date. And it can’t be overlooked that over the last two weeks he really looked to have that standing shooting confidence back, particularly with some stellar final shoots that led to victories.

Long story short, JT Bø is in good but not his greatest form, he’s on top of the Overall rankings, and oh yeah, he’s one of the greatest of all time. He’s not leaving the World Cup squad until he says he is.

2. We’d Send Them Home Before We Sent Them To The IBU Cup: Tarjei Bø and Sturla Holm Lægreid

By this I mean, these men are so high profile and so accomplished that I think that should their performance dictate that they are not actually a top 6 athlete on the Norwegian team, rather than the relative embarrassment of going down to the IBU Cup where they might struggle more, they would likely be sent home to train and rehab. Or possibly, like JT Bø after the Olympics, simply take the rest of the season away. Regardless, these two men aren’t going anywhere right now.

Tarjei Bø

08.12.2023, Hochfilzen, Austria (AUT): Tarjei Bø (NOR) – IBU World Cup Biathlon, sprint men, Hochfilzen (AUT). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Jasmin Walter/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age35
Overall Rank2nd
Average Finish7.6
Wins1
Podiums4
Top 10s5
Ski Rank7th
Shooting Percentages92.3/87.7/90 (Rank = 16)
Shooting Times28.5 seconds (Rank = 56)

Tarjei Bø recently put on the yellow bib for the first time in over a decade, after he won the Sprint in Hochfilzen. He only narrowly missed out on the Sprint win in Oestersund when Philip Nawrath put out a superhuman like effort. He stands in the #2 spot in the Overall and he’s consistently finding his way to the top 10 including climbing the podium in 50% of his races. This is no smoke and mirrors either as his stats more than equate to one of the best biathletes in the world right now. 7th fastest and shooting 90%? Yeah that’s pretty damn good. Needless to say, Tarjei Bø isn’t going anywhere right now.

Sturla Holm Lægreid

16.12.2023, Lenzerheide, Switzerland (SUI): Sturla Holm Lægreid (NOR) – IBU World Cup Biathlon, pursuit men, Lenzerheide (SUI). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Manzoni/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age26
Overall Rank5th
Average Finish10.0
Wins0
Podiums2
Top 10s4
Ski Rank23rd
Shooting Percentages89.1/96.4/92.7 (Rank = 5)
Shooting Times25.7 seconds (Rank = 18)

After the first full week of competition in Oestersund there was very real, and justified, worry about Sturla Holm Lægreid possibly being on the outside looking in when Norway lost it’s “extra” seventh bib. He looked absolutely nothing like the man who has finished 2nd Overall for the last three consecutive seasons. Over those three races he finished 12th, 20th, and 25th and actually somehow looked even worse as he labored on the skis.

Fortunately the World Cup moved to the Alps of Austria and Switzerland and really the only thing that got in Lægr’seid way there was his own dunderhead move of accidentally firing his rifle while trying to dry fire causing him to miss the Lenzerheide Mass Start. Over the four races he ran he finished in order: 2nd, 4th, 4th, and 3rd. While not close to his ski ranks over the last several years he looked decidedly stronger than he had in Sweden. Meanwhile he was able to get himself into contention in multiple races, actually leading the race midway through both Pursuit races. Lægreid might not be all the way back to his incredible level of the last three seasons, but he’s definitely on the upswing and you can’t argue with four straight top 4’s. Lægreid’s secure.

3. Not A Lock But The Way He’s Going He’s A Lock: Johannes Dale-Skjvedal

09.12.2023, Hochfilzen, Austria (AUT): Johannes Dale-Skjevdal (NOR), Johannes Thingnes Bø (NOR) and Tarjei Bø (NOR) – IBU World Cup Biathlon, pursuit men, Hochfilzen (AUT). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Jasmin Walter/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age26
Overall Rank3rd
Average Finish7.8
Wins0
Podiums2
Top 10s6
Ski Rank2nd
Shooting Percentages84.6/84.6/84.6 (Rank = 46)
Shooting Times28.9 seconds (Rank = 67)

One man who needs absolutely no reminder of how difficult it can be to keep a spot on the Norwegian World Cup squad is Johannes Dale-Skjvedal. Three seasons ago he completed the year ranked 5th overall. The following season he got off to a slow start and was immediately bumped down to the IBU Cup. For the rest of the season he never recovered. Fortunately he fought his way back to the World Cup last season and finished 7th Overall including an emotional victory in Annecy-le Grand Bornand.

This season Johannes Dale-Skjvedal looks even better. At times he’s looked better than Tarjei Bø even if the results don’t back it up. That’s mostly because he’s skiing like an absolute fiend right now. He’s moved himself up from just being fast to being in the same conversation with Sebastian Samuelsson and JT Bø. It’s gotten him into contention several times and is an incredible asset. Still I can’t say there is a 0% chance that he gets demoted because his shooting is just mediocre enough that a dip in ski form could lead to a dramatic fall in results. If he keeps his ski speed though there is no way he’s going anywhere.

4. Sorta Needs to Get It Going But Probably Safe: Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen

10.12.2023, Hochfilzen, Austria (AUT): Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen (NOR) – IBU World Cup Biathlon, relay men, Hochfilzen (AUT). http://www.nordicfocus.com. © Manzoni/NordicFocus. Every downloaded picture is fee-liable.
Age31
Overall Rank7th
Average Finish9.6
Wins0
Podiums1
Top 10s4
Ski Rank8th
Shooting Percentages 92.3/81.5/86.9 (Rank = 30)
Shooting Times28.1 seconds (Rank = 47)

With Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen is where things start to get a little more uncertain. Over the last two seasons he’s established himself in the true upper echelon of biathlon. This year though, success has been (slightly) more difficult to come by. I say slightly because he’s still ranked 7th Overall which would be the third best finish of his career. However, in this era of high level Norwegian men, that puts him just 6th best on the team. It would appear to be right on the edge.

Christiansen, as you can see clearly, is behind his teammates. He’s not as fast as JT Bø or Johannes Dale-Skjvedal and he isn’t shooting as well as Sturla Holm Lægreid or Tarjei Bø. He’s just been good enough at both to grab his four top 10’s. However, he has never seemed to be truly in contention for a victory.

This is clearly what Ziggy Mazet is seeing as he has landed on a unique answer to the six bib issue at least for Oberhof. He’s giving Christansen an extra week to prepare at home before rejoining the team in Ruhpolding where he has a history of success. His strengths fit well with Ruhpolding so he has a good shot of impressing there. However, depending on both his performance and the performances of one or more of the men behind him on this list, I would say his position is certainly unstable. It’s an absolutely wild thing to say about a man currently ranked 7th in the Overall, but that’s where we are right now.

5. One Or More Of Us Isn’t Going To Make It: Endre Strømsheim, Vebjoern Sørum, John-Olav Botn

Endre Strømsheim

16.12.2023, Lenzerheide, Switzerland (SUI): Endre Strømsheim (NOR) – IBU World Cup Biathlon, pursuit men, Lenzerheide (SUI). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Manzoni/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age26
Overall Rank4th
Average Finish8.4
Wins0
Podiums1
Top 10s5
Ski Rank5th
Shooting Percentages90.8/81.5/86.2 (39th)
Shooting Times25.3 seconds (12th)

It might be a little hard to believe that Strømsheim is on the edge of losing his spot. He’s 4th in the Overall! He is skiing 5th fastest of anybody and shooting incredibly fast and he’s decently accurate as well hitting more frequently than Dale-Skjvedal and right at the same level at JT Bø.

So why isn’t he more along the lines of Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen or even Dale? Well so far the top level finishes aren’t quite there. Just like Christiansen he has just the one podium finish (that maybe he should have been DSQ for but that’s a whole other issue). Unlike Christiansen he doesn’t have the history of good performances to rely on which is why Christiansen separates himself just slightly. As much as Mazet and Norway might say it’s not a factor it’s almost impossible to separate out.

Meanwhile, while his average finish is better than Lægreid’s, Lægreid is significantly altered by his really poor Oestersund. But four straight top 4’s gives Lægreid a leg up on Strømsheim.

Strømsheim feels like he’s being put in a situation with a weekend of head to head competition vs. Botn. It’s not quite that clean as they are also competing with Sørum and others on the IBU Cup as well. But for now, should Strømsheim perform better than Botn he keeps his spot. It’s a simple as that. In order to do so he is going to need to improve that shooting just a touch. But if he accumulates a couple more top 10’s, and especially another podium, that’s a huge benefit for him.

Vebjoern Sørum

02.12.2023, Oestersund, Sweden (SWE): Vebjoern Sørum , NOR happy third place – IBU World Cup Biathlon, sprint men, Oestersund (SWE). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Danielsson/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age25
Overall Rank15th
Average Finish12
Wins0
Podiums1
Top 10s3
Ski Rank15th
Shooting Percentages86/80/83 (Rank = 61)
Shooting Times26.4 seconds (Rank = 22)

Somebody had to be the first one to be demoted right? Just the rules of the game dictate they can only start six, and when you carry seven for the first three weeks of competition, somebody eventually has to go. Vebjoern Sørum is that man. The writing was on the wall when he didn’t get the Sprint start in Lenzerheide. As tough of a call as that was, it was the right one.

He had a solid start in Oestersund including a podium in that first Sprint. Then he went to Hochfilzen and wasn’t able to capture the magic again finishing 17th and 15th. Lægreid, coming off of two top 4’s did all he needed to do end any doubt about his security on the team. Meanwhile Strømsheim finished 14th and 8th following three top 6’s in Oestersund.

This is the “fortunate” case where the stats back up the results. He’s not as fast as JT Bø, Dale-Skjvedal, Strømsheim or Christiansen. He is the worst shooter on the team. So in this case it doesn’t matter which you look at to make the decision, Sørum was the unlucky man out.

It’s a bit of a hard pill to swallow because he did run the Mass Start in Lenzerheide and he finished 6th. His average finish of 12th is good for 11th best in the World Cup. However, when comparing him to the other six men he shared the World Cup team with, he is clearly man #7.

Now comes the really scary part…he has to earn his spot again and the competition in the IBU Cup is fierce and full of young guys who want his spot. The group below is going to be fighting like hell when they get to Italy. He better be ready to go because it’s no sure thing that he’s going to get a couple of podiums. He has to establish himself as the man to beat and the one who deserves one of the coveted six bibs should a spot open up.

Johan-Olav Botn

30.11.2023, Kontiolahti, Finland (FIN): BOTN Johan-Olav (NOR) – IBU Cup Biathlon, individual men, Kontiolahti (FIN). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Yevenko/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age24
Overall Rank (IBU Cup)1st
Average Finish1.5
Wins5
Podiums8
Top 10s8
Ski Rank1st
Shooting Percentages80/80/80 (Rank = 52)
Shooting Times31.8 seconds (Rank = 45)

Johan-Olav Botn really forced Norway’s hand on this decision. He’s run all eight races on the IBU Cup and he’s won five of them. Granted it’s the IBU Cup but that’s like a JT Bø-pace. His other three races he finished 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. He’s in 1st in the Overall on the IBU Cup by a HUGE margin. After the first trimester he’s up by 224 points. It’s stunning.

Botn is doing it in impressive fashion too. He is absolutely running away from competitors on the course. He’s running 3.5% faster than the median top 10. That’s a historically great number. For comparison Martin Uldal is the 2nd fastest Norwegian (there are 7 Norwegians in the top 10 of ski speed) and he’s running at 0.7% faster than the median top 10. Here are a few of the impressive performances this season:
– Kontiolahti Individual: 1:15
– Idre Fjall Pursuit: 15 seconds with 5 misses
– Sjusjeon Mass 60: 14 seconds back and in 3rd place with 6 misses. 1st (Nevland) and 2nd (Overby) combined for 1 total miss.

The one major risk for Botn is that his shooting is mediocre. He literally has to be that fast in order to make up for his 80% shooting. Every single race he has at least 1 more penalty loop than the other member of the podium. Some races are crazy where he has 5 more penalty loops. He also isn’t that fast of a shooter yet.

These aren’t trivial things. He could get to the World Cup and really struggle. If he’s only shooting in the upper 70’s or low 80’s he’s going to look a lot like Martin Ponsiluoma. Don’t get he wrong Ponsiluoma is a hell of a biathlete and currently sits at 9th Overall. However, when we look at Botn coming up we aren’t looking or Ponsiluoma. We’re looking for the 2nd coming of JT Bø. Right now, though, the shooting just isn’t quite there.

Now, this doesn’t mean he won’t get it. I’m not projecting anything beyond this season. In fact, the safe money is on him learning how to shoot considering the immense talent in the coaching staff that is supporting him. However, I just want to not let expectations get too far through the roof. Having said all of this, watch him go to Oberhof and immediately find the podium!

Long story short, Botn has enormous talent. You just can’t teach ski speed like that. He just needs to find the shooting to go along with it and I’m not sure that will happen this season. That means that he’s not a sure bet to stay on the team even though he’s getting first crack at it when the World Cup returns to Oberhof.

6. Don’t Look Down: Martin Nevland, Mats Oeverby, Martin Uldal

For Strømsheim, Botn, and especially Sørum, they better not look down. With Botn leaving the IBU Cup the next few Norwegians on the IBU Cup are ranked 2-4 in the Overall. These men are chock full of talent and they are all dreaming and yearning of making it to the World Cup. They aren’t just going to expect it to happen to them. Especially with no obvious openings on the World Cup roster in the relatively near future. Expect to see these guys continuing to make a push towards the World Cup, and if Strømsheim, Botn, and Sørum don’t keep competing at an exceptionally high level they could easily end up where they don’t want to be…on the outside looking in.

Martin Nevland

30.11.2023, Kontiolahti, Finland (FIN): NEVLAND Martin (NOR) – IBU Cup Biathlon, individual men, Kontiolahti (FIN). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Yevenko/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age22
Overall Rank2nd
Average Finish4.8
Wins1
Podiums4
Top 10s7
Ski Rank8th
Shooting Percentages88.3/90/89.2 (Rank = 7)
Shooting Times30.3 seconds (Rank = 22)

While he has just a single victory this season (and in his IBU Cup career), Martin Nevland currently sits in the 2nd position on the IBU Cup Overall list. He also has an average finish of 4.8 which is pretty crazy when you think about it. It means he’s averaging a top 5 finish every race and you can see that with four podiums and five top 5’s. It’s all about getting results and he’s getting results.

He’s also somehow a more well rounded biathlete that Johan-Olav Botn. While Botn has a top end speed that isn’t matched by anybody on the IBU Cup, and frankly few men on the World Cup, he really isn’t a good shooter. Nevland though ranks 8th in skiing (and 6th amongst his IBU Cup Norwegian colleagues) and with an 89.2% hit rate he ranks 7th in shooting on the IBU Cup.

None of that is to mean that he’s a better biathlete. Clearly the results speak for themselves as Botn is sweeping up wins left and right. What it does mean is that Nevland has a ceiling that is worth watching. Think of him as similar to Sturla Holm Lægreid. He’s really fast, for sure, but few men can match him on the range. Should Botn’s misfires plague him on the World Cup and his speed isn’t quite enough to overcome the deficits, Nevland could get the call up and immediately be solid. Hitting 90% of your shots will keep you competitive. And running about as fast as Sebbe Stalder would put him in position for some top 10 finishes.

Mats Oeverby

16.12.2023, Sjusjoen, Norway (NOR): OEVERBY Mats (NOR) – IBU Cup Biathlon, mass start 60 men, Sjusjoen (NOR). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Authamayou/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age23
Overall Rank (IBU Cup)3rd
Average Finish6.0
Wins0
Podiums4
Top 10s7
Ski Rank11th
Shooting Percentages95/83.3/89.2 (Rank = 6)
Shooting Times30.1 seconds (Rank = 20)

Mats Oeverby, currently the 3rd best Norwegian on the IBU Cup, and subsequently on the IBU Cup Overall, has had a very similar season to Nevland so far. The only difference is that while Nevland has the win, Oeverby’s best on the season is 2nd place which he has accomplished twice. He also has just a slightly worse average finish mostly related to a 20th place in the 2nd sprint in Idre Fjall.

Looking at the stats Oeveby is basically the same athlete as Nevland. Not nearly as fast as some of his teammates. In fact he’s practically a snail coming in at 11th fastest on the IBU Cup. However, he’s hitting the exact same percentage as Nevland and shooting almost the exact same average speed.

Really, I would say that we would have the exact same expectations of Oeverby on the World Cup as we do for Nevland. He’s basically a carbon copy biathlete with remarkably similar performances. Long story short, he’s really good and on nearly any other team he would be getting regular World Cup starts by now and would likely already have his first career top 10. Only way to know is if he gets a chance to show what he can do.

Martin Uldal

16.12.2023, Sjusjoen, Norway (NOR): ULDAL Martin (NOR) – IBU Cup Biathlon, mass start 60 men, Sjusjoen (NOR). http://www.biathlonworld.com © Authamayou/IBU. Handout picture by the International Biathlon Union. For editorial use only. Resale or distribution is prohibited.
Age22
Overall Rank (IBU Cup)4th
Average Finish7.6
Wins0
Podiums3
Top 10s5
Ski Rank4th
Shooting Percentages85/80/82.5 (Rank = 31)
Shooting Times30.3 seconds (Rank = 23)

And here we have yet another young talented Norwegian, and our second Martin of the list, Martin Uldal. If you mainly watch the World Cup his name might be familiar. He won the most points at the 2022 Junior Worlds and subsequently secured a bib for the season closing races in Oslo. He finished 20th and 27th in the Sprint and the Pursuit respectively. And he’s even better now than he was then.

Think of Uldal as Johan-Olav Botn but just not quite as fast. While Botn is basically a cheetah, Uldal is simply a springbok. He’s not as fast, but he’s really dang fast. Also, like Botn, he isn’t (yet) the most accurate shooter in the world. Hitting just 82.5% right now he ranks just 31st on the IBU Cup and his inaccuracy can cause some lower finishes (18th and 11th this sesaon) that his speed isn’t quite enough to overcome.

While ranking 31st doesn’t sound too bad, if he were on the World Cup 82.5% would rank 65th. That just goes to show the higher quality of competition on the World Cup vs. the IBU Cup. Still, Uldal is good and even two years ago he managed a 20th and 27th in his first career races. Imagine what he could do now. It’s easy to imagine that being a 10th and 17th if not higher. Would that be enough to sustain him on the World Cup level with the quality of competition on this team? Probably not. But he’s just 22. Where will he be next season?

7. He’s Coming: Vetle Paulsen

Age23
Overall Rank (IBU Cup)6th
Average Finish8.1
Wins0
Podiums3
Top 10s6
Ski Rank5th
Shooting Ranks91.7/65/78.3 (Rank = 56)
Shooting Times28.2 seconds (Rank = 8)

Vetle Paulsen slots into a category all on his own just slightly below the three ahead of him. Those three are all in the “next man up” level where should Botn and Strømsheim and Sørum struggle, those men are ready and able to compete. Paulsen isn’t quite there…yet. Don’t bet against him though as he’s showing some serious quality right now. Three podiums and six top 10’s is nothing to laugh at! It’s actually one more top 10 than Martin Uldal. And the average finish of 8.1 is just a little lower. The stats just aren’t all there.

He’s fast, the 4th fastest Norwegian man on the IBU Cup. And he shoots faster than any other IBU Cup Norwegian, and nearly faster than any man on the IBU Cup. However that fast shooting and fast skiing isn’t paired with accurate shooting. Hitting just 78.3% overall is nowhere close to where he needs it to be.

Paulsen’s future is really all about his standing shooting which is a rough 65%. His prone is already great at 91.7% shooting. Should he find a way to start hitting his standing shots the sky is the limit. He immediately vaults into the Nevland, Oeverby, Uldal category and is nipping on the heals of Botn, Strømsheim, and Sørum. That speed is high level stuff, and as I said he already shoots faster than all of them. Right now he looks a bit like Philip Nawrath. Super fast, can’t hit the standing shots. However, we’ve already seen Philip Nawrath can win a World Cup race when he hits. Could Vetle Paulsen do the same? Maybe not right yet, but he’s really close.

8. Did You Forget About Me?: Sivert Bakken

Oh hey! What about Sivert Bakken? Remember him? Back in the 2021-2022 season he was one of the bright stars of the Norwegian constellation of talent. He finished 9th Overall with two podiums, four top 5’s and nine top 10’s. It might be a little fuzzy by now but he actually closed out the season with his first career win in the Mass Start to secure himself the discipline globe.

That was the last we’ve seen of him. Not because he walked away but because he suffered from a heart condition. It is unclear exactly what caused it as we never know the exact cause. However, he did receive the mRNA COVID vaccine and booster and this is a known side effect. (Note: It is also a known complication of COVID as well and the risks of this with COVID are higher than the risks with the vaccine by orders of magnitude). Since then he has struggled to gain health clearance. The Norwegian team has stood right by him though keeping him on the national team.

Just prior to this season he started to train again. So far reports are that he’s feeling good. Let’s hope they continue that way. It is impossible to know that the future holds for him. When he was at his best, at only 23 years old, he was good enough to be one of the best in the world. I sincerely hope that he can reach that level again. If he does he’s going to be very difficult to keep off the World Cup roster.

9. There’s Another One?: Isak Frey

Age20
Overall Rank (IBU Cup)20th
Average Finish6.7
Wins0
Podiums0
Top 10s3
Ski Ranks30th
Shooting Percentages92/84/88 (Rank = 10)
Shooting Times33 seconds (Rank = 61)

You’ve got to be kidding me…there’s another one? Yep! Just 19 years old Isak Frey made his IBU Cup debut last season and had three top 10’s in four races. This season he got the call up to the IBU Cup in Sjousjoen and immediately had three top 10’s including two trips to the flower ceremony and an 8th. That average finish of 6.7 actually ranks ahead of Martin Uldal and Vetle Paulsen. While he was the third man to get the sixth IBU Cup bib for Norway after Filip Fjeld Andersen and Simon Kirkeeide, it looks like he’s going to keep it for awhile.

He’s just 20 years old right now so he’s not really on the radar for a call up this season unless he does something truly spectacular. However, I wanted to mention him because I’m using this as a spotlight on the Norwegian depth in a way I haven’t done before. And Isak Frey is certainly one to keep an eye on.

Frey is a little unique amongst the Norwegian IBU Cup men because he isn’t one of the fastest men out there. Seriously every other Norwegian man who has run on the IBU Cup this season has been in the top 11. He is still only 2 so this isn’t a huge surprise. He does shoot well, hitting 88% in those three races which puts him 10th best on the IBU Cup thus far. Averaging 33 seconds per shooting, which isn’t bad for 20 years old, could definitely improve.

Will Frey make the World Cup this season? Well actually he probably has a better chance than Paulsen as Frey still qualifies for Junior Worlds. If he goes to Junior Worlds and kills it then he could qualify for the end of the season. However, other than that he probably won’t make it up. Still worth a look though!

10. Where’d He Go?: Filip Fjeld Andersen

Remember Filip Fjeld Andersen? He looked like a sure thing member of the next generation of the Norwegian World Cup team as spent most of the last two seasons there. In the 2021-2022 season he even made two podiums. Where is he now though? His form slipped last season and he was demoted to the IBU Cup at the end of the year. Last year included a stretch of 8 top 15’s in 9 races to start the year including a season’s best 4th place. This year he ran a couple of races and now is off the international roster completely.

You want to know why Sørum has to be a little nervous going down the IBU Cup? This is why. Soeum absolutely HAS to perform well in order to keep his spot in the rotation and hope to go back up to the World Cup. If not, Nevland, Overby, Uldal, Paulsen, etc will go right by him on the pecking order. It’s no joke trying to keep your head above water over here. Don’t think it will happen? Just look at FF Andersen’s finishes in the first half of last season. Showed no indication that he was going to fall off the radar but here we are.

11. Oh C’mon You’re Kidding Right?: Andreas Aas, Einar Hedegart, Sivert Silsand Gerhardsen, Havard, Tosterud, Kasper Kalkenberg

No in depth examination required here. Just wanted to point out that these men are all Juniors and are all good. All have top 4’s at Worlds and most have won gold at Worlds. There are even more than this but this is just who they have selected for the national u23 team.

12. Remember Him?: Sverre Aspenes

Anybody here remember Sverre Dhalen Aspenes? You could be forgiven if not. He was 3rd Overall on the IBU Cup two years ago when he was 24 years old. That season he had three wins, five podiums, and ten top 10’s. He even made a handful of World Cup starts that season. Last I heard he was still training but just hasn’t been able to find that form again. Just goes to show you that if you have dreams on this team you have to always keep pushing. It is very easy to go from next man up to completely off the radar.

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